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Floyd Mayweather, JR. – Manny Pacquaio: Breaking It Down by the Numbers

floyd-mayweather-vs-manny-pacquiaoBy Travis Fleming

Well, it finally appears to be happening. Barring an extremely unfortunate catastrophe, the most anticipated fight of the century is upon us. The stars have aligned, the premium cable companies have aligned, the bitter rival promoters have aligned, and the fighters themselves have aligned to give us the dream fight that we have been demanding for over five years. It was, perhaps, the most difficult fight to make in the history of the sport, but the two teams got together to clear the hurdles that have prevented the super fight, and finally on Saturday night at the MGM Grand in Las Vegas, Floyd Mayweather, JR., 47-0, 26 KO’s, takes on Manny Pacquiao, 57-5-2, 38 KO’s, in the biggest fight in sports history.

I have been following, and been in awe, of both men for over fifteen years and never thought I would see the day that they shared the same ring in the biggest fight of all time. One has fought and beaten more champions than any fighter in the history of the sport, while the other has won championships in more weight divisions than any fighter in boxing history. They both fought their way out of troubled environments, and a life destined for failure, to become a pair of the richest and most talented athletes on earth. Make no mistake about it, these are still the two best fighters in the world and they are among the greatest to ever do it. This is the first time that the number one and two pound for pound fighters on earth have squared off, and their contrasting styles are sure to make for an interesting battle.

Mayweather is the more versatile fighter with various styles mastered, and an incredible ability to adapt to an opponent to take away their strengths, after a couple of rounds of measuring them up. Pacquiao is a relentless offensive dynamo with a style that, on paper at least, looks like it can give Mayweather a lot of trouble, especially with his southpaw stance an unorthodox attack. I think this will come down to brain over brawn.

Pacquiao fights in one way only and he’s not going to change that in one training camp. It’s a very difficult style to tame, and even knowing how he fights, opponents are still overwhelmed by
the sheer speed, volume and awkwardness of Pacquiao’s attack. Many opponents have said they knew what Pacquiao was going to do but still couldn’t stop it. He is a fighter that uses his incredibly quick feet and hands to launch ambushing flurries at a distance from awkward angles that handcuff opponents before he quickly bounces back out of their punching range. Mayweather, on the other hand, has a variety of styles he employs. He is one of the best counter punchers of all time, he is excellent at keeping opponents at bay with jabs and pot shots from the outside, he can befuddle opponents by making them miss by mere fractions of an inch when he uses the shoulder roll defense, but most effective against Pacquiao will be his ability to infight. Mayweather is a master of staying in the pocket and walking a man down while he smothers their attack and rips hooks to the body and head on the inside. Pacquiao does not fight well on the inside or going backwards, he needs distance to launch his attacks. One of Mayweather’s consistencies in every fight is to use his ability to size up and adapt to his opponents style to take away his opponents greatest weapons and expose their greatest weaknesses. Knowing this, if a simple fan such as myself is able to notice that Pacquiao has trouble fighting on the inside and on the backfoot, then surely the smartest fighter of our time will pick up on this as well.

Mayweather would rather play it safe with potshots and counter punches from the outside, but Pacquiao is very hard to beat from the outside due to his speed and punching volume. Pacquiao will win some early rounds on his handspeed and volume alone. Mayweather will come out and try to beat Manny with lead rights, jabs to the stomach and check hooks from the outside but if, after a couple of rounds, he doesn’t have a clear edge with this tactic, expect him to risk taking a few power shots from Pacquiao to get inside and close the distance on Pacquiao’s attacks as they require distance to launch. At some point in this fight, Mayweather will get inside and start walking Pacquiao down with short hooks and uppercuts to keep Pacquiao on the backfoot where he is least comfortable and not able to punch successfully.

Both Mayweather and Pacquiao have fought men much bigger them for many years, but against smaller opposition, Mayweather almost always goes from potshots to infighting at some point. Against Pacquiao, Mayweather will be the bigger and stronger man in the ring for the first time in many years and he will use that size and strength advantage to bully Pacquiao on the inside and in the clinch. He will use his trademark illegal elbows and one armed clinches to frustrate Pacquiao while on the blind side of ref Kenny Bayless. Expect Mayweather to switch styles by round five after dropping two or three of the first four rounds by fighting on the outside. From that point onwards, it will be all Mayweather dominating the remainder of the fight with a frustrated Pacquiao unable to punch going backwards. Expect a unanimous decision for Mayweather, either eight rounds to four or nine rounds to three.
This fight was a nightmare to make due to the fighters being contractually obligated to different rival promoters/managers and different cable companies. There have been several failed attempts at putting the two greatest fighters of our generation in the same ring. Everything from disagreements on the purse split to drug testing have killed previous attempts but both men finally took it upon themselves to give the fans what they wanted. Regardless of who emerges victorious on May 2nd, I want to extend a giant thank you from boxing fans to both all time greats. They had other options and could have easily avoided the arduous process of putting this fight together so let’s show some class and respect the loser on May 2nd. Let’s refrain from posting childish memes mocking the loser. These two men gave us what we all asked for in delivering this super fight, the least we can do to thank them is to send them off with dignity and respect. At the end of the night, this could be the last time we see the loser on the grand stage. Let’s give them thanks for all they have given to the sport we love. We will never see another Mayweather and Pacquiao again.

Official Prediction: Floyd Mayweather, JR. by clear Unanimous Decision.

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