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Miguel Cotto Vs Daniel Geale: Upset In The Works?

Who do you think wins between Miguel Cotto Vs Daniel Geale?

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CottoBy Travis “Novel” Fleming

Puerto Rican legend Miguel Cotto, 39-4 32 KO’s, will be making the long awaited, first defense of his WBC, and lineal, world middleweight championship on Saturday, June 6th against former unified IBF and WBA middleweight champion Daniel Geale, 31-3 16 KO’s, from Australia. The bout will air live on HBO from the Barclays Center in Brooklyn, New York.

We know all about Miguel Cotto’s greatness, but what many fail to realize is that in choosing Daniel Geale as his first legitimate middleweight opponent, the undersized Cotto may have bitten off more than he can chew. Daniel Geale is a top tier, natural middleweight. He is a skilled boxer with an excellent pedigree and a quality resume. He has often traveled to other countries to get opportunities in high risk bouts against local fighters, so he won’t be effected by fighting Cotto in New York, in front of Cotto’s rabid Puerto Rican fan base. He is a recent champion, and he will be very hungry for redemption in this big money fight against the superstar Cotto. Geale holds the distinction of being one of the very few men to hold two major middleweight titles at the same time, and he did it the hard way. He won his IBF title by beating, then champion, Sebastian Sylvester in front of his hometown fans in Germany. He has beaten some very good middleweights over the years, but most impressive was his unification fight against long reigning, three time middleweight champion, Felix Sturm. Sturm held the WBA middleweight title and had benefited from fighting at home in Germany many times in the past, receiving preferential treatment from hometown judges in bouts that he deserved to lose. Beating Sturm in Germany has proven, over the years, to be a near impossible task, yet Geale did just that and therefore proved he was an elite level fighter with two major world championships. Geale recently got KO’d by Gennady “GGG” Golovkin, but bounced back with a win against Jarrod Fletcher.

In Geale, Cotto will be facing a younger, hungry, true middleweight in perfect health, so this fight will really show if Cotto has what it takes to compete against the much bigger men at middleweight, which is doubtful. Cotto is a natural welterweight who has only had one fight above the junior middleweight limit, and although he impressed in destroying long time champion Sergio Martinez, his opponent was likely injured and declining at an old age, so he was there for the taking. The fight was also held at a catchweight below the middleweight limit, and Martinez was never a natural middleweight himself. Just two fights before snatching Martinez’ title, Cotto lost a lopsided decision to junior middleweight Austin Trout, where he was comprehensively outboxed.

Geale, like Trout moves well and is a solid technical boxer. He’s quick, and more powerful than Trout, being a natural middleweight. I’m not convinced that Cotto is as improved as some think he is since he hooked up with legendary trainer Freddie Roach after the loss to Trout. Since then, he has had two wins. One against gatekeeper Delvin Rodriguez, and the aforementioned win over Sergio Martinez. Delvin Rodriguez is not a top ten junior middleweight, so even though Cotto looked spectacular in destroying the typically solid Dominican, he probably should have due to the gulf in class. Sergio Martinez was an excellent upset win, but in all likelihood Sergio was damaged goods and Cotto caught him when he was old, on the decline, and injured. Geale is young, fresh, experienced, and the first natural middleweight Cotto will have ever faced.

Cotto has shown that he can be outboxed, and the bigger Geale is certainly a capable technician. I see Geale building up an early points lead and Cotto doing all that he can to rally, but subsequently not being able to hurt the much bigger man, and as a result losing a clear but competitive decision, much like the Cotto vs Trout fight.

The ramifications of a Geale win are enormous. GGG has been chasing, and deserving a shot at, the lineal title ever since it was held by Sergio Martinez. He has also been desperately trying to get a big name in the ring with him to stamp his ticket to superstardom, by destroying a highly regarded fighter. If Geale wins, GGG loses the opportunity to chalk a legendary fighter in on his resume. GGG already easily knocked out Geale, so although it would be great to win the lineal title that has unjustly evaded him for so long, and GGG would jump at the chance to do it over someone he already beat, beating Geale would do nothing to calm his naysayers who want him to face a big name opponent and he’d be subject to the same criticism even if he held the lineal title. Geale beating Cotto is terrible news for Golovkin.

Rumors have it that should Cotto beat Geale, he will be squaring of with Mexican superstar Saul “Canelo” Alvarez later this year in the biggest fight in boxing that doesn’t involve Floyd Mayweather Jr or Manny Pacquiao. Cotto vs Canelo is the only fight not involving Mayweather or Pacquiao that can do over a million pay per view buys. WBC president Jose Sulaiman Jr, has order that should Cotto beat Geale, and opt to face Canelo next instead of GGG, the winner of Cotto vs Canelo would have to immediately set terms for a fight against GGG in their following bout. If Cotto loses to Geale, the Canelo fight would lose a lot of luster. It can still happen with Cotto moving back down to junior middleweight, armed with the excuse of being too small for middleweight, but it definitely wouldn’t be close to as big as it would have been if he beat Geale, so along with GGG, Canelo also becomes a loser with a Cotto loss to Geale. Canelo might just choose to move up in weight to try and take the title from Geale if he beats Cotto, then opt to fight GGG if he wins, but all in all, it will ruin a chance for GGG and Canelo to notch the biggest win of their careers against Cotto.

Official prediction: Daniel Geale by UD over Miguel Cotto…. upsetting fans, Cotto, GGG, and Canelo. [si-contact-form form=’2′]

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