Robbie Lawler – Rory MacDonald: Breaking it Down by the Numbers

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By Barnaby “Mattress Man” Kellaway

Robbie Lawler Vs Rory MacDonald

This is a fight which under normal circumstances would be right at the top of the billing. But in international fight week, with the McGregor show in full swing, fans are indulged with two title fights.

If the rematch is anything like the first fight then fans are in for a treat. In November 2013 at UFC 167 the two went toe to toe in a back and forth battle which Lawler eventually won via split decision. On that occasion Lawler looked to have the advantage on the feet whilst MacDonald had success with his takedowns and looked dangerous on the floor.

Both men are better fighters now than they were then. Robbie Lawler has capped off a wondrous return to the UFC by becoming the welterweight champion. At the age of 33, having first appeared at UFC 37, he is more composed, more confident and more dangerous than ever before. The challenger, Rory MacDonald has also gone on a tear, winning his three fights since that close decision defeat. Whilst the veteran, Lawler, is at his peak, ‘Red King’ is improving each and every time he competes.

With 36 professional fights to his name, we know Lawler’s gameplan: to stalk his opponent around the cage, throwing a high frequency of punches and kicks. He is an elite kickboxer and when he smells blood it is usually over for his opponent. ‘Ruthless’ is an excellent finisher – 76% of his victories have come via KO/TKO.

MacDonald on the other hand is an absolute mixed martial artist. He is adept on the feet, possessing one of the best jabs in the division. Equally he has an exceptionally well timed takedown, with the ability to submit from the top or from the guard.

It is on the ground that MacDonald could have the greatest chance of victory. In the first fight he scored five takedowns on Lawler but for the most part struggled to assert dominance once on top. In the wake of that, having presumably watched it numerous times, you would expect him to target that part of Lawler’s game. With that being said he certainly will not shy away from standing with Lawler. Although he may not be quite as well versed in stand-up as his opponent, he has utilised effective kicks in the past and is always a dangerous counter-puncher.

The key to victory for Lawler will be the same thing that won him the first fight: to suppress MacDonald’s jab. He did it well in the first fight by throwing leg kick after leg kick and countering with a left of his own. We can expect MacDonald to have an answer for it this time, perhaps applying his focus to a submission and showing more conviction to that part of his game than he did previously.

This is a close fight to call but MacDonald has the edge. Even if Lawler can dominate on the feet the Canadian has too many tools at his disposal to deal with. He will take encouragement from how easily he took Lawler down last time and pursue that avenue with greater vigour this time round.

Rory MacDonald by Submission

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