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Vinny’s Views: Manny Pacquiao Vs Jessie Vargas – Who Wins and Why?

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pacquiao-vargas-702x387By Vinny “Glory Days “Lucci

There’s an incredible wave of fighter’s arrogance that you got to love in the extremely talented welterweight division. While it doesn’t boast a showcase arena of all-time greats that hosted the eighties, it is without question today’s premiere division. Short term memories have over looked Manny Pacquaio, who insisted he was retired last April after looking sharp as ever in clear cut decision victory over three time opponent Timothy Bradley. Pacquiao is currently ranked the number one contender by the WBO for title Jessie Vargas won over Sadam Ali with his vacancy. A twenty one year ring veteran, Pacquaio has proven time and again there isn’t any flies on him, even if his inability to knock out an opponent is long gone. No current 147 pounder can defy the odds of father time as eloquently as the Philippine boxer who stealthy evades center gate counters while wreaking havoc on his opponents from either side of pocket. His combination hand speed and foot work are rivaled by none. Future hall of famer Manny’s record stands at 58-6-2, 38 KO’s.

Scheduled to face Jessie Vargas to reclaim his liner title on November 5 of this year, the early Vegas line has been so drastic that HBO has decided not to showcase the fight on its pay per view arm, after having Manny its boxing staple for over a decade. A frustrated Bob Arum who promotes Manny has considered this a termination from network declaring they can’t pick and choose what fights they want to broadcast. The network has claimed the contract is still in order, and that they had a scheduling difference already committed to hosting Kovalev-Ward light heavyweight title bout on November 19 and that in fact, offered Arum October 29 instead. Pacquiao was unavailable for that date fighting around his senate schedule. The contract for both promoter and network states both parties must mutually agree on opponents.

One of the disadvantages of fighting for Arum’s top rank, is the lack of top flight welters to choose from in his stable. Having already fought four epic fights with Juan Manuel Marquez, besting Timothy Bradley 2 out of 3, with most of the boxing fraternity disagreeing it should have been a clean sweep, and total dismantling of Brandon Rios, there isn’t much name value at 147 to warrant a pay per view date.

While there has been much speculation that WBC/WBO Jr welterweight champ Terrence Crawford was offered a match with Pacquaio, he has publicly denied ever receiving an offer, at any weight. Crawford owns a perfect 29-0, 20 KO’s record and coming off a recent title unification victory over previously unbeaten Viktor Postal. Crawford uncharacteristically decided to box and move over last three rounds when it was apparent he could have stepped up the pace and stopped Postal before the final bell. Crawford’s superiority had turned Viktor into a one armed fighter and the movement with angles which he supplied made spectators and boxing scribes alike excited at the thought of pairing up two master boxers, with some speculating it would be a passing of the torch from old lion to young. I’m eager to see this match up but not so ready to jump on that band wagon until I see with my own eyes a decline in Manny’s skills. Which brings us to Jessie Vargas.

Rated eighth by Ring Magazine, more heralded names loom above him, Kell Brook who owns the IBF title and will face middleweight champion Gennady Golovkin next month, followed by Keith Thurman IBF champion, Amir Kahn, Shawn Porter, Tim Bradley, Danny Garcia WBC champion, and Errol Spence, JR. who is fresh off this week’s stoppage victory of durable Leonard Bundu. Sporting a record of 27-1, 0 KO’s Vargas on paper is believed to be the safer choice. While tallying up his first 26 wins, the kid was considered an up and coming boxer with possible star potential. In his next fight he was matched with veteran and former champ Tim Bradley who earned a unanimous decision regardless of the fact he was almost stopped by Vargas in closing seconds of final round. Last March Vargas made the noise in boxing world that caught Arum’s attention, winning the WBO belt from Sadam Ali with a ninth round TKO.

The match up. On paper Vargas is clearly outmanned when it comes to experience, especially at this level of fighting. At 27, he is ten years Pacquaio’s junior and may be hoping that youth will be served. While both men should comfortably weigh in at the 147 pound limit, Jessie owns a distinct height and reach advantage, standing 5’10” to Pac’s 5’5 and a half inch obstacle, with a commanding five inch making his wing span a difficult attribute to get inside of for most boxers. The final blueprint for supremacy may very well come down to styles. While Vargas will work behind an orthodox jab in ring center, he’ll have his work cut out for him as Pacquaio is the most celebrated south paw since Marvin Hagler.

The outcome will be predicated on an old familiar axiom. Can Vargas stop Pacquiao’s forward rushes where he slips effortlessly at the gate to either side of pocket unleashing right handed mayhem or will own height and reach propose problems for the crafty veteran? Manny has an uncanny ability to score his shots, and beguile his foe with a pivoting lead foot exit under their reach to right or left side where he glides a step backwards and no longer in range.

Time and memorial has proven that his unique ability to do so has driven many a talented champion to fits of frustration. This outing will be no different. Try as he might, Jessie will not be able to set the traps needed to slow Manny down, let alone catch him enough to stop him. Let’s not lose sight of the fact it took the great Marquez four bouts to finally nail Pacquaio convincingly, and then abruptly refused a fifth fight with good reason. What were the odds Manny could be stopped again? As for the height and reach advantage, the Chris Algieri fight from two years ago presented the exact same disparity as well as experience. Pac knocked him down no less than six times and unmasked his skills as more style than substance winning every round. Vargas will be tempted to try and display some power and test the old man’s legs which will play right into Manny’s offense. With Pac out landing Vargas three to one in punch stats, he will confuse and score for 12 rounds taking a unanimous decision.

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