Vinny’s Views: Andre Ward Vs Sergey Kovalev II – The Stats, The Facts, The Odds & the Prediction!

By Vinny “Glory Days” Lucci

This one is special gang so I put off handicapping it until it’s just several days off. Many rematches often fall short of the drama and excitement of the original making trilogies saved for the rarest pantheon of extreme warfare between two nemesis’. The world gathers to a repeat performance of heart and soul displayed only when two boxers exhibit inhuman carnage against one another. This matchup is already being bandied about for the trifecta in hopes the sequel is better than the original so on June 17th, light heavyweight champion Andre Ward defends his liberated belt collection against Sergey Kovalev at the Mandalay Bay Events Center in Paradise, Nevada. (HBO PPV) I say liberated because the back drop to the story is that half the boxing world believes the former champion was robbed of not only his titles, but his legacy as well last November.

I believe that Andrea Bocelli, Stevie Wonder and Jose Feliciano could have done a better job of officiating the scorecards. My unbiased tally awarded Andre only rounds 7, 8, 9, and 11. He was dropped in round 2 falling 7 points into the abyss at the halfway mark. Many ringsiders agreed he would need to not only win second half of the fight convincingly, but also need a knockdown to manage a draw. All-time great Roy Jones, JR. who himself, once ruled the division for seven years tallied the rounds the same as Ringside Report.

Breaking this one down is not as simple as it was for the first dance between the two enigmatic warriors. Andre was believed to be the heir apparent to the mythical number one pound for pound best with the departure of Floyd Mayweather, JR. due to his retirement. Sergey was undefeated and making his 9th title defense. His Russian accent speaking broken English became a fan favorite as much as his heavy hands and granite chin. The fascinating point of contention was the lingering question mark of whether or not Ward could bring his skills north seven pounds to a division that Kovalev was cleaning out?

Having gone into a self-imposed exile over a money dispute with his promoter Andre appeared to be stifling his prime. His reappearance two years later saw him return to his winning ways, but the rust was apparent. While it could be reasoned that he was a superior boxer to the then champion, the match up had both fans and media speculating if his skills were sharp enough to turn back the power punching champion.

After twelve rounds the best Ward could do was fight back by holding, clinching, and hitting with a free arm. His trainer the venerable Virgil Hunter claims Andre “outfought” Kovalev, but now he will do better and outbox him. It’s agreed that the rounds listed above were awarded due to man handling in the trenches and not based on any form of boxing mastery. Those rounds were ugly and nothing to brag about. How any judge or fan could have awarded Andre any other round is simply an act of over zealousness.

At the bouts conclusion both Ward and Hill looked prepared for the worst scenario, but not as shocked as team Kovalev once scores were announced. The former champion openly derided the hometown decision and evoked his rematch clause.

Phase two. Andre let this one simmer awhile, but made sure to publicly stir the pot over the following months. First it was propaganda that he was the “A” side of the promotion and needed to be treated right in contract negotiations. Someone forgot to tell him he made two and a half times more than the ex-champion. There were rumors of retirement amid whispers that perhaps he was afraid of signing on for the sequel.

Sergey has been vocally bitter about the arrogance displayed by Ward in press and promises to knock him out in rematch. Interestingly when interviewed on RSR just two weeks before first match Kovalev enlightened our readership with a stunning plan to outbox the challenger every round and look to win on scorecards.

The Stats:

Andre Ward is 33 and fights from the orthodox stance. He stands 6’ even with a 71” wingspan. His record stands unblemished, if not biased at 31-0, 15 KO’s. He hails from San Francisco and goes under the moniker of “S.O.G.” (Son of God).

Sergey Kovalev is a year older, but sees eye to eye with his adversary at 6’ even. He owns a 1 inch reach advantage and also fights from orthodox stance. The Russian is known as the “Krusher” due to his heavy handed power.

The Odds:

Vegas odds have moved the line since bout was signed. Ward has been made the favorite betting choice at -130 against Kovalev’s +100. There have been stipends affixed to each scenario if you care to wager on betting by Decision, KO, or Draw.

While gathering information to prepare a prediction the bout seemed more mired in possible scenarios than a clear cut choice winner. Not that they are so evenly matched on paper but the lingering mess left behind in wake of bad decision. So let’s examine those scenarios one by one in helping fans establish what to look for as well as expect come fight night.

First up, Ward winning by decision. His Trainer thinks having been in the ring with Kovalev before will make this match easier to handle. In the same breath he has mentioned a rematch making a trilogy a possibility even though this bout does not have a rematch clause. He certainly didn’t outbox Sergey eight months ago and it’s hard to digest a scenario where he can nullify the fluid attack before him and score enough quality punches to win early rounds. Nowhere in the first encounter did we witness the flashes of brilliance Andre displayed as the undisputed super middleweight champion.

Kovalev by Decision. Thinking out loud I wonder if judges can be nonbiased after the former champion has ridiculed the scoring process on American soil. It’s of note that team Ward has shot down the request for an international judging panel. The flip side to that is will the new judges award close rounds his way to make up for the last scoring debacle or will rabid fans prediction that Sergey can only win by knockout once again come into focus.

Ward by knockout. I don’t see it happening. Not now, not if they fought ten times. Kovalev possesses a chin of granite that has passed the test against bonafide power punchers like Jean Pascal. While Andre can land cleanly and get his attention, he simply doesn’t command KO power at 175 pounds.

Kovalev by knockout. While Ward has promised to turn back the challenge and prove the first bout’s decision wasn’t a fluke he hasn’t stepped out of bounds and trash talked a stoppage. The challenger has pulled out all the stops in declaring he was over trained for first encounter and will not leave fight in the gym. Sergey appears consumed with not only bringing his prediction to fruition but wants to punish the new champion and claims to seriously dislike the man.

A draw. While I have yet to handicap a match where predicting a draw in advance seemed a reasonable possibility this match up could very well be split down the middle of scorecards for several reasons. Ward does possess an outstanding defense and desire to win over proven name contenders on his resume. Judges may once again reward him for what he has accomplished in the past rather than what actually transpires in the ring.

The challenger cannot afford to coast in any round and could be penalized for any stanza he doesn’t thoroughly dominate. Finally trying to get three judges to observe a fight and calculate it the same is nearly impossible. The recent barnburner two weeks ago between welterweights Kell Brook and Errol Spence, JR. is a perfect example. While the scores at time of eleventh round stoppage were similar, the rounds differed dramatically on scorecards. In event of such an impasse, the champion retains the title and in this case three of the four light heavyweight belts.

Prediction:

Don’t bet the fight. While my gut tells me the challenger will make good on his promise I am still beguiled by how any rational thinking judge could defend the scorecards from the first encounter. In a sport that isn’t governed by a national commission fans have to endure horrific or debatable decisions every year. What puzzles me the most is how people defend the past win with blind vigor as if they witnessed a different fight than I covered? Between rounds of that bout Virgil Hunter never appeared like the win was in the bag and was imploring his fighter for a strong finish knowing full well his protégé was well behind on points.

The Vinny Factor:

Keep in mind rooting for your favorite hero and placing wagers responsibly are two different manners at hand. If so inclined to wager, always bet with your head, not your heart. Actually in hindsight every time you order a pay per view card you’re taking a gamble. Ask anyone who recently purchased Canelo Alvarez’s challenge of Julio Cesar Chavez, JR.

In a bout where almost anything can be expected it’s a good time of the month to sit back with friends and just let the night’s events unfold. With Canelo Alvarez summer ending challenge of middleweight champion Gennady Golovkin on the horizon there is plenty of time to look forward to bold predictions with complete analysis and insight to blueprint as to how the bout will play out.

Stay tuned…

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