Vinny’s Views: Miguel Cotto Vs Yoshihiro Kamegai – The Stats, The Facts & The Fight Prediction Is In!

By Vinny “Glory Days” Lucci

Not quite sure what to make of Miguel Cotto’s long awaited return to ring. While he hasn’t fought since losing his WBC middleweight belt to Canelo Alvarez back in November 2015, I wouldn’t necessarily call it a comeback. He boxed well against a bigger stronger rival and comfortably went the distance. After taking some time off to enjoy family and fruits of his labor he was unable to secure a quality name opponent for some time after year long negotiations with Juan Manuel Marquez never inked a contract due to inability to agree on weight and purses.

Enter one Yoshihiro Kamegai from Japan. The exciting but limited brawler brings a face first action style tailored made for revamped Freddie Roach version of Cotto where he utilizes his legs, movement and angles more than in his heyday. Kamegai has spoken out on the golden opportunity to cash in on instant fame if he can buck the odds and derail the proud Puerto Rican’s farewell tour slated to end in December of this year.

The Event:

Set for August 26, and to be held at Stub Center, Carson California. Hosted by HBO and promoted by Golden Boy Promotions with Teiken promotions of Japan. At stake is vacant WBO super welterweight title. (154 lbs.)

Stats:

Cotto stands 5’7” with an average wingspan of 67” while fighting out of orthodox stance. His record boasts a 73% KO ratio amid his 40-5, 33 KO’S ledger. Cotto has a hall of fame resume with legendary rivals filling his dossier throughout his 16 year career.

Kamegai is two inches taller, standing 5’9” and also enjoys a four inch reach advantage at 71”. He too fights out of traditional orthodox stance owning a 75% KO ratio amid his 27-3-2, 24 KO’s record. His losses to less than stellar marquee names guarantees this as a perfect meal ticket for Miguel to cash in on as he positions himself for not only his sixth title in four divisions but back on the radar of both media and fans as he hopefully seeks a year end match with the winner of upcoming middleweight extravaganza between Gennady Golovkin and Canelo Alvarez.

Of note, should Golovkin win, he must give Alvarez a rematch first. If Alvarez wins, he is not inclined by contract to grant a rematch and could easily align his team in giving Cotto a return bout form two years ago. At the time Golovkin was unsuccessful in pursuading Cotto into a unification bout.

Previous fight:

Cotto boxed a noble 12 rounds in 2015 in losing his middleweight strap to Canelo Alvarez, but interestingly bout was held at a first time middleweight title catch weight of 155 pounds turning off hard core fans and boxing media who held the 160 division most scared as the holy bridge between the great little men and giants.

Kamegai stopped a game Jesus Soto Karass in September 2016 when he was unable to continue after the eighth round of a scheduled ten. Six months earlier these two fought to a thrilling ten round draw.

Styles:

Cotto has carried his vaunted left hook up from his intimidating Jr Welterweight run as he gained fifteen pounds. At 36 years of age he has given his body a good rest as he attempts to put a punctuation mark on finale of his career. In 2013 he came under the tutelage of hall of fame trainer Freddie Roach where he has been honing his boxing ability and picking his spots when unleashing his power. For an aging warrior Miguel has shown no signs of fatigue and comes into every fight in magnificent shape. He clearly has taken a vested interest in who he fights and how he approaches his training regimen with diligence and focus.

Kamegai is a rangy brawler who comes into bout under a “catch 22.” His style is to smother an opponent giving away his two attributes in this match, height and reach. If he comes into the pocket he’ll be subject to brutal body shots to ribs where Cotto excels in the trenches setting up the debilitating head shots. If he chooses to box, he will be picked apart at long range by a superior craftsman. The Japanese brawler has lost unanimous decisions to Robert Guerrero, Johan Perez, and Alfonso Gomez none of which are in Cotto’s class. The 34 year old Yoshihiro will be game and relentless willing to take two to land one.

Odds:

Vegas line holding steady with Cotto at -450, Kamegai at +325. Ringside Report holds steadfast to same line as Cotto’s layoff may produce some rust taking a slight edge off him becoming an overwhelming 7-1 favorite.

What to look for: Footwork! Like opening a new business the old adage “location, location, location” means everything. This bout’s footwork will predicate punching location, and frequency thereof, with Kamegai focusing on phone booth warfare hoping to close the gate behind him.

Cotto will box on balls of his feet exhibiting daft angles and escape routes while working behind an educated jab and sensible defense. He’ll oblige his adversary only on his own terms and only when he cares to.

The Vinny Factor:

Will the long layoff effect the favored #1 WBO contender as he may be overlooking his dance partner as tune-up material rather than a true equivalent in the art of fisticuffs? Could the letdown of not facing Marquez fail to peak his interest against a rival who has yet gained national recognition? Will Cotto look past the Japanese veteran in hopes of securing his last pay per view match?

With all being considered Kamegai has everything to win and not much to lose but yet another bout. If he can back up Cotto and keep him on his heels for majority of rounds he can expose the rust and negate the experience.

Prediction:

Cotto by S.O.S. (Stoppage or Scorecards) Kamegai was carefully chosen to give Miguel the desired work he needs while displaying his skills in hopes of securing one final hurrah before hanging up the gloves for good.

Speaking of which, one time rival Sugar Shane Mosley officially just added his name to long list of summer retirees graciously taking his final bow.

Stay tuned…

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