Floyd Mayweather, JR Vs Conor McGregor: A Mismatch in the Making

It might be the fight of the century that ends in the most improbable highlight-reel knockout of all time. It might lay the foundation for the next great underdog movie. It might, as Maximus Decimus Meridius would say, echo in eternity.
Or it might be a 12-round soporific that makes you regret shelling out $100 for the pay-per-view.

The smart money is on the latter, and it’s not hard to understand why. When Floyd Mayweather (5’8”, 72” reach) and Conor McGregor (5’9”, 74” reach) step into the ring on Saturday (August 26), all the hype, all the words, all the bravado will go out the window, and we’ll be left with the same thing we’re always left with: two men trying to punch each other. But, in this case, one is much better at it than the other.

In most high-profile bouts, the fighters are on a roughly level playing field in terms of training and experience. The defining feature of “May-Mc,” of course, is that only one guy boxes as a career. McGregor has zero professional boxing matches on his resume. Sure, punching people is part of his day job as a mixed martial artist, but it’s a completely different sport with different rules, different tactics, different equipment, different … almost everything. The dominant striking game he’s shown in MMA (18 knockouts in 24 career fights) floored other mixed martial artists, who had to be on the lookout for leg strikes and takedowns. It didn’t KO professional boxers who’ve spent their entire lives learning how to avoid such punches. Conor’s few months of dedicated sparring and boxing-specific training will only get him so far.

That reality would make McGregor an underdog against almost any relatively successful professional boxer of similar size. But he’s not facing just any boxer. He’s facing one of the greatest pound for pound fighters of all time. He’s facing the 49-0 Floyd Mayweather, perhaps the best defensive boxer to ever step in a ring. Connecting with the same left hook that ended Jose Aldo in 13 seconds will be a Herculean task.

The Vegas odds have swung towards McGregor in the build-up to the fight, as the Irishman has largely “won” the hype game. Formerly about a 6/1 underdog, he’s now closer to 3/1. But that movement is driven by where the money has gone; it’s not driven by any perceptible change in McGregor’s slim hopes to outbox Mayweather. The analysts at SportsBettingDime.com give Mayweather 1/4 odds (an 80% chance) not just to win the fight, but to win every round on all three scorecards. That might be a little high, but it aptly demonstrates that this is a complete mismatch.

You can knock Mayweather for avoiding dangerous fighters in their prime if you want. His resume is still replete with wins over upper-echelon fighters like Canelo Alvarez, Manny Pacquiao, Diego Corrales, Oscar de la Hoya, Juan Manuel Marquez, Ricky Hatton, Shane Mosley. The list goes on, and very few of his world-class opponents came close to winning. Mayweather has approached every fight of his career in a very calculated manner, ensuring the fights play to his counter-punching strengths. He doesn’t get into brawls. He doesn’t let emotions get the better of him. He doesn’t get flustered and deviate from his wildly successful strategies.

If you’re looking for a reason to be optimistic about McGregor’s chances, look to the toughest fights of Mayweather’s career. His most controversial win came against Jose Luis Castillo in 2002, a fight Mayweather won by unanimous decision despite the HBO analysts scoring it in favor of Castillo. Castillo’s style was one of constant pressure. He was the stronger man and used that strength to his advantage, cutting off the ring and wearing Mayweather down with body blows. McGregor will enter Saturday’s fight with a distinct strength advantage. Taking a page out of Castillo’s playbook is his best bet.

How good a bet is that? Not very. Mayweather fought Castillo with a bum shoulder and won their rematch – post surgery – handily.

Some point to potential ring-rust on the part of Mayweather as a reason to like McGregor. Admittedly, he hasn’t fought since Sep. 2015 and is technically coming out of retirement. But Mayweather guards his undefeated record like an undergrad who just scored one of the comfy chairs at Starbucks. No one will so much as sniff that seat until tomorrow, meaning Mayweather wouldn’t be making this comeback if he felt old, slow, and vulnerable.

You can sum up the forecast for this fight in seven words: McGregor is literally out of his league. Mayweather will pick him apart for all 12 rounds and win comfortably by unanimous decision.