Vinny’s Views: Sergey Kovalev Vs Vyacheslav Shabranskyy – The Facts, The Stats and The Fight Prediction is In!
By Vinny “Glory Days” Lucci
To coin a phrase, “Whatever doesn’t kill you only makes you stronger.” While it can apply to all walks of life the axiom becomes a time test for every boxer once they taste defeat. Some regroup after digesting adversity and do indeed come back better not broken. The others toil in the abyss of denial, self-absorption and doubt. Any spectator can holler from bleacher seats and pass judgments on fallen heroes but unless you walk a mile in another man’s shoes one simply can’t calculate the challenge of rising from the ashes of defeat.
Former multi belted light heavyweight champion Sergey Kovalev is about to ascend that precipice on November 25 when he climbs the steps to enter ring at Madison Square Garden to face the first challenge of the rest of his career. His opponent Vyacheslav Shabranskyy who goes by moniker “Lion Heart” will look to capitalize on Kovalevs back to back losses to current champion Andre Ward to propel himself into title contention.
The venue:
10 round light heavyweight bout held at the Theater at Madison Square Garden in New York City. Bout to be promoted by Main Events and Krusher Promotions along with Golden Boy Promotions. HBO will televise event on HBO After Dark.
The stats: Sergey Kovalev is without a doubt the attraction here. The Russian fighter has become a fan favorite with his broken English, brute power and 8 successful title defenses. He stands 6” tall but appears taller ringside with his lean muscular body. The orthodox boxer has a 72” wingspan and carries legit KO power in either hand. Kovalev is 34 years old and was contemplating moving up to cruiserweight division where he feels his best fighting weight is 187 lbs. and less taxing on his body when this match presented itself. His record stands at 30-2-1, 26 KO’s.
Vyacheslav Shabranskyy possess several advantages on paper standing 6’3 ½ “tall with a 75” reach. The orthodox Ukrainian is 30 years old sporting a ring ledger of 19-1, 16 KO’s.
Previous fight:
Kovalev is coming off a loss from last November in title match to Andre Ward where he was seeking to avenge the bad decision in which he was robbed of his belts the previous June. Second time around Ward didn’t allow it to go to judges hands and stopped Sergey by TKO in seven. Unfortunately he was stopped by pummeling low blows that referee Tony Weeks failed to acknowledge.
Vyacheslav last fought in August against one Todd Unthank May which ended in a one sided 7 round TKO victory by referee between rounds.
Styles:
Kovalev boxes behind long jab and likes to walk his man down. He goes to body inside the pocket after engaging exchanges. He is a flat footed stalker but moves easily on nimble bouncing footwork and often creates sharp inside angles to unleash his arsenal. He has a granite chin that was truly tested in his first fight with Jean Pascal.
Vyacheslav has a standup European style tailored made for the “Krusher.” He holds his hands very high in a tight guard about both sides of his face. This not only gives away his reach advantage but his height as well as he has to reach forward from stance to unload his punches. With guard protecting his temples he leaves his ribs exposed. His stance is a bit too wide for balance making him a purely flat footed stalker who lacks any imagination in cutting off ring with no lateral movement. Having a suspect resume with nary a name opponent on it, this handicapper suggests his chin is suspect too having failed its only test against Sullivan Barrera last December by TKO in 7.
What to look for on fight night: The untrained eye might enjoy this as a brawl but keep your focus on Kovalev who will gage distance with his jab and immediately look to test his adversary’s whiskers in first round. He will find his body a remarkably easy target which will set up the head shots once his foe drops his elbows. Kovy will attack from blind sides of gate by simply stepping right or left inside the pocket and letting his power go.
Shabranskyy will plod forward hoping to land bombs of his own in hopes that the former champ is damaged goods. He will be outclassed on every exchange, as he does not fight well moving backwards.
The odds:
Early odds have former champion Kovalev at -800 to +550 for Shabranskyy.
Prediction:
Kovalev by TKO in six entertaining rounds.
The Vinny Factor:
There lurks several intriguing circumstances beyond the comeback storyline. Besides the fact Sergey was contemplating a move to cruiserweight, he also has dedicated this comeback to a fallen boxer Roman Simakov, an opponent who lost his life three days after falling into a coma after a 7 round TKO in Russia.
The Russian was very vocal about “cleaning house” and replacing his head trainer John David Jackson. In a fascinating irony, when interviewed by Ringside Report last year before the Ward fight Kovalev claimed he basically trained himself and Jackson was only in his corner to oversee his getting into shape.
The venerable trainer Virgil Hunter has offered his services to the ex-champ in what surly would make for a fascinating camp with nemesis Ward in stable. As of this writing Kovalev has yet to unveil his new corner.
If the back to back losses have produced a negative set back karma, Shabranskyy will not be the one to unveil it.
Stay tuned…
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