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Vinny’s Views: Daniel Jacobs Vs Luis Arias: The Stats, The Facts & The Prediction Is In!

By Vinny “Glory Days” Lucci

As the year is rapidly winding down there are still some noteworthy fights for Ringside Report to cover and handicap while fans can chow down and feast on the banquet that’s left on boxing calendar. While the media has focused on recent heavyweight action true fans await the canvas matrix between Vasyl Lomachenko and Guillermo Rigondeaux. While I need to remain neutral every single time I step behind a keyboard I have to admit the middleweight division has captured my imagination since I was all of eight years old blessed with the chance to view the immortal Sugar Ray Robinson’s farewell bout against Joey Archer on TV. Even in losing a ten round decision I was hypnotized by his power, speed and grace at 44 years of age after nobly serving up a hall of fame career that spanned a quarter century.

Small wonder I’m looking forward to covering Daniel Jacobs’ next bout. Pay attention here and notice I didn’t say comeback. Daniel didn’t retire nor go away. He simply is taking the next step to middleweight supremacy which happens to be up three ring steps to face one Luis Arias.

With Gennady Golovkin and Canelo Alvarez tied up in promotional warfare until May, Jacobs needs to stay sharp and remind fans he was once and future king.

The Venue:

Daniel Jacobs Vs Luis Arias at Nassau Coliseum in Uniondale N.Y. on November 11th. Twelve round bout which is promoted by Eddie Hearn of Matchroom Sport, and televised by HBO. Doors open at 6 PM. Featured undercard bouts televised at 10 PM, ET.

Stats:

Daniel Jacobs is known as the “Miracle Man” having survived and flourished after a serious bout of cancer in mid career. He stands 6′ with a wingspan of 73″. The Brooklyn native is a New York favorite who fights out of the orthodox stance having turned pro a decade ago. At 29 years of age Danny has entered his prime. His ledger reads an impressive 32-2, 29 KO’s. He held a version of the WBA middleweight title.

Luis Arias is nicknamed “Cuba” and secured this high profile match with a # 6 ranking from IBF as well as a #7 ranking from WBC. Unknown to casual fans the live upstart is presented with a golden opportunity to become world renown come November 12th. His modest record of 18-0, 9 KO’s belies the fact the Milwaukee fighter is putting himself on the line betting his five year tenure inside the ropes has given him the boxing acumen to pull off the upset. At 5′ 11″ (reach unconfirmed) the confident Arias is betting his future jumping to the head of the line in belief he can expose a chink in Jacob’s armor; his chin.

Styles:

Jacobs is a talented boxer with legit power in either hand. While he isn’t Sugar Ray Robinson, no one is. Danny has the skills to reign providing his suspect chin holds up against the onslaught of proposed matches of division’s best. Besides Golovkin and Alvarez, Serhiy Derevianchenko and Jermall Charlo await the honor. Having gone the distance with “GGG” and annihilating Peter Quillin he is more revered than top contender David Lemieux or WBO champion Billy Joe Saunders.

Arias is a flat footed orthodox boxer with heavy hands. He often clinches inside the pocket and his reach is best served with short punches to chin and hooks to body. He is trained by former middleweight titlist John David Jackson who strongly believes his protégé’ has a puncher’s chance. Both fighters like to circle ring so it will be interesting to see who gives ground, backs up or who can turn foe into their power punches.

Last Fight:

On March 18th Jacobs fought a middleweight unification match with multi belted universal champion Gennady Golovkin at MSG and came out on losing end of a unanimous decision. Ringside Report was ringside that night awarding Golovkin the match 8-4 in rounds, not counting the extra point for fourth round knockdown. While Danny claimed the moral victory for surviving against murderous puncher “GGG”, he exalted in mock victory post fight reveling in the live gate’s appreciation that he tagged his nemesis good on several occasions. His moments of brilliance were overshadowed by his defiant glove and chest pounding admiring his own work instead of getting back inside the pocket and controlling the rounds that were ebbing away.

The audience and cable viewers alike were transfixed on combos and not the rhythm of the rounds in which Jacobs failed to engage the ever aggressive Golovkin on a steady basis. In retrospect one has to wonder if Danny went all out if he would have walked in Robinson’s shoes, or got himself knocked out trying. Of note, Jacobs refused second weigh in at 7am morning of the fight after making the official 7pm weigh in the night before. It is believed he entered the ring at 11 pm hovering at 182 pounds, officially a cruiserweight.

Arias impressed the boxing fraternity with a fifth round TKO over capable Arif Magomedov for USBA title in Las Vegas on June 17th. Going into the bout the gents were evenly matched on paper. Arias displayed control of the pocket boxing well and picking his spots to unleash his power.

What to look for fight night:

The back story to main event will once again be weigh in. Former junior welterweight champ Chis Algieri serves the Jacobs camp as cook and nutritionist. It will be fascinating footnote to see if overall goal is to once again ring bulked up to light heavyweight and beyond at ring walk.

Inside the ring Daniel owns the power, speed, experience and skill set to turn this event into a glorified sparring match. He simply does everything better. He’ll use his jab and footwork to hold his stalking prey at arm’s length and look to pick away at his adversary on his own terms. His trainer Andre Rozier will have him ready to explode in fistic flurries at the first sign Jacobs buckles his opponent’s knees much as he did against Peter Quillin two years ago. Otherwise he circles Arias keeping him at end of his jab and looks to extend him to deep waters where he can expose his inexperience at this level.

Odds:

Inexpiably as we went to press Vegas has yet to drawn a line on this match. Ringside Report makes Jacobs a 3 to 1 favorite.

The Vinny Factor:

Both fans and media have questioned the validity of Jacobs whiskers. Having been stopped by power puncher Dmitry Pirog in 2010 by a fifth round knockout Daniel’s chin has been the hyperbole of handicappers. The stigma was later enhanced when former welterweight champion Sergio Mora knocked him down in a title fight back in August 2015 before being stopped in the second round. What people lose sight of is Danny was later diagnosed with Osteosarcoma Cancer not long after his loss to Pirig. He not only got off canvas to finish Mora, but he gave him a rematch after dispatching heavily favored Peter Quiilin in the first minute of round one. Mora lasted seven rounds by avoiding Jacobs but was stopped by TKO.

Against Golovkin, Jacobs was sent sprawling in sections in round four but survived the count and was never shaken badly enough again against the feared champion to give up gravity. Going twelve hard fought rounds against a fighter of that caliber has erased some of the negativity concerning Danny’s mandible.

Add to the equation that nowhere on Arias resume is he ready to fight on a world stage at this level. The experience factor simply isn’t there. The jump in talent goes from swap to ocean.

Prediction:

Daniel Jacobs by stoppage. If the Arias team is hoping he’ll be gun shy returning from his lost bid against Golovkin, perhaps they didn’t revue the fight. Jacobs will see what Luis has to offer then slowly undress him before taking him out around the ninth round.

Luis will then be forced to rebuild going back to drawing board in securing bridge fights to close the gap in abilities or cash in and once again being thrown to wolves.

Stay tuned…

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