2011 NFL Draft: Inside Scoop
By Brian Wilbur
Football and the NFL is the 800 pound gorilla when it comes to popular sports in the United States. With no labor agreement in place between the owners and players as of this writing, fans are at serious risk of a lost or shortened football season. Agreement or not, this year’s NFL rookie draft will begin on April 28th and last three days. Even if the selfishness and greed of the players and owners robs us of games this year, at least they will not take away the beloved draft.
The draft gives hope to the fans of the last place teams and gives fans of the winning teams another chance to gloat about their team. NFL nerds love getting a glimpse at the next generation of pro stars. College football fans want to see how high their favorite player will go.
Thus, the NFL draft has morphed into massive event that is almost bigger than an NFL playoff game. Sports writers came up with the concept of a mock draft that tries to predict what team will pick what player. The mock drafts get fans prepared for the big event and gives them an idea of what to expect.
It seems like everyone and their grandmother has an NFL mock draft these days. So, here’s mine.
My grandmother’s will be posted next week…
1. Carolina Panthers – Patrick Peterson CB.
If Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck had declared for the draft he would be the no-brainer to go as the #1 pick. Luck decided to return to school for his senior year, making the Panthers decision extremely difficult. In a year like this where there is no obvious number one you have to take the best player available, even if he does not play a position that is historically taken this high. Peterson is the best cornerback prospect since Charles Woodson. Any other player taken here would be a mistake because Peterson is a full step above the field in terms of talent.
2. Denver Broncos – Marcell Dareus DT.
Denver desperately needs defense. They were atrocious last year trying to stop opposing offenses, against the pass and the run. This pick absolutely has to be a defensive player. Dareus impressed at the combine to pass up Nick Fairley as the top defensive tackle prospect and fills a big need for Denver. Perfect fit.
3. Buffalo Bills – Cam Newton QB.
Buffalo GM Buddy Nix pretty much tipped his hand and said that they were going to draft a quarterback. Now the question is whether to pick Newton or Blaine Gabbert? Newton is an unorthodox quarterback and not NFL ready, but his physical prowess makes him very intriguing. His upside is off the charts and come draft day that will be irresistible even though he could end up being a major bust. I think the Bills pick Newton then sit him behind Ryan Fitzpatrick for a year or two as he develops into the potential face of their franchise.
4. Cincinnati Bengals – Da’Quan Bowers DE.
The Bengals have a lot of holes to fill after a very disappointing season. Putting pressure on opposing quarterbacks is a good start to improving on defense. Picking up the best DE prospect in the draft seems likely if Bowers falls to number four. I am curious though to see if Cincinnati decides to pick a quarterback here instead since Carson Palmer is intent on not playing for the Bengals next year.
5. Arizona Cardinals – Von Miller LB.
Miller is a stud outside linebacker prospect and widely considered to be the best linebacker in the draft by a wide margin. Arizona needs a leader on defense because they have not had a good one since they lost Karlos Dansby via free agency. Miller is a much better fit for a 3-4 defense than a 4-3 and the Cardinals run a 3-4 so I would be shocked if the Cardinals passed because Miller is a perfect fit for what they need.
6. Cleveland Browns – Nick Fairley DT.
Fairley is a good enough prospect to go #1 overall without surprising anyone. He can stop the run, which is the main thing you want from a interior defensive lineman, but he also has the rare ability to rush the passer from the DT position. Some call him the next Warren Sapp. Some Browns fans might be clamoring for a WR but I think defensive line help is a much bigger need.
7. San Francisco 49ers – Prince Amukamara CB.
Many will suggest taking a QB here. Sure, QB is not a strength for San Francisco, but poor QB play was not the biggest reason why the 49ers sucked last year. They can make due with the Smiths if the rest of the team is solid. Porous defense, mostly in the form of a bad secondary, was the biggest offender in my eyes. Nate Clements is no longer an elite player, in fact he is now sub-par and gave up almost one big play per game last year. Amukamara is an excellent cover corner prospect who increased his stock even further at the combine. Last year the 49ers only two glaring needs were corner and safety. They took safety Taylor Mays last year, now it is time to address the other need.
8. Tennessee Titans – Blaine Gabbert QB.
Titans representatives are adamant that they will not take a quarterback. I think that is a smoke screen. Both Vince Young and Jeff Fisher are gone. Kerry Collins is a fossil. Even though I am not solid on Gabbert, he is the best QB available and Tennessee has no other choice but to grab a QB in my eyes. They aren’t built to win now so who are they going to rely on to play the most important position after Collins is gone? Rusty Smith? That would be a disaster unless their plan is to tank and then take Andrew Luck next year. I feel sorry for Titan fans if that is the case.
9. Dallas Cowboys – Robert Quinn DE.
No pick really fits perfect here. The Cowboys biggest need is probably safety but there is no safety prospect worth taking this high. Dallas has a talented roster from top to bottom with no glaring holes, which is why I can’t quite figure out why the Cowboys underperformed so terribly last year. If one of the big name CB prospects (Peterson and Amukamara) are still around they would be a good fit but I don’t think they will last until #9. None of the other prospects rated to go this high fit a big need. When in doubt take the best player available and that is pass rusher Robert Quinn who can bring the pain and put pressure on opposing offenses. Even though this is not a big need for Dallas, Quinn is good enough to start right away on just about any NFL team at either defensive end or outside linebacker in a 3-4.
10. Washington Redskins – AJ Green WR.
Washington had one of the most pathetic team of wide receivers I’ve ever seen last year. They had Santana Moss and a gigantic void on the other side of the field. AJ Green is rated as the best WR in this year’s draft. He is an incredible athlete and has the promise of a true impact player. Washington will jump on the chance to grab Green if he lasts this long. Even if Green is not their, they should still go WR and pick up Julio Jones. Washington desperately needs a WR.
11. Houston Texans – Cameron Jordan DE.
Houston had an atrocious defense last year. Ideally they would like to upgrade their 32nd ranked pass defense but the next best DB left would be a reach at this point. The Texans need help all over on defense so Jordan starting opposite Mario Williams at the DE position would give the Texans a potent 1-2 punch on the defensive line. Jordan is one of a handful of excellent pass rushers in this year’s draft, one of the deepest defensive end classes ever.
12. Minnesota Vikings – Julio Jones WR.
The Vikings took a major plunge last season after having lofty expectations. They could certainly use a quarterback or an upgrade on the defensive end of the ball. Sidney Rice is a free agent and if he does not re-sign then that instantly becomes their biggest need. I have a feeling that Jones will turn out as the best WR in the draft. He is a tough, physical receiver who can make the spectacular catch. Running a sub 4.4 40 at the combine was a surprising plus and helped bump him up the boards.
13. Detroit Lions – JJ Watt DE.
Detroit is finally starting to come around. Suh, last year’s pick, bolstered up the interior defensive line. They could use some help at safety or corner but putting pressure on the quarterback by upgrading the DE position would help tremendously too. JJ Watt was one of the biggest stars of the combine. Watt is a great athlete with a motor who will bring energy and passion to any defense. Suh and Watt playing side by side would be a handful for offensive lines to contain.
14. St. Louis Rams – Corey Liuget DT.
The Rams would really love to have Julio Jones fall to them but I don’t think it will happen. The Rams would do well to resign Danny Amendola and Mark Clayton if they can’t get a stud WR in the first round. With their player gone they will try to upgrade their run defense with an intriguing 4-3 DT prospect in Liuget. This is a bit of a reach but Corey is a good player and won’t be around by the time the Rams pick in the second round. With Chris Long on the end and Liuget plugging the internal gaps, the Rams will have a formidable defensive line.
15. Miami Dolphins – Mark Ingram RB.
Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams were incredible players at their peak and an excellent one two punch over the last few seasons. However, they are both free agents and getting long in the tooth. Bringing in fresh blood at the RB position makes too much sense for Miami to pass up 2009’s Heisman trophy winner. Ingram is a powerful runner who can break tackles and move the pile.
16. Jacksonville Jaguars – Ryan Kerrigan DE.
Jacksonville really struggled rushing the passer and making big plays in the backfield last year. Aldon Smith is still on the board but Kerrigan outperformed him at the combine and will likely be the preferred DE between the two for the Jags.
17. New England Patriots – Aldon Smith DE.
This is the draft pick that the Patriots took from the Raiders in exchange for Richard Seymour. New England could have used Richard Seymour last year, especially in the playoffs. They will try to bolster their defensive line to make up for Seymour’s absence. Smith is an intriguing prospect and a sack specialist. I will be curious to see if he is used as an end or a rushing linebacker in the NFL.
18. San Diego Chargers – Tyron Smith OT.
Phillip Rivers is a top notch quarterback and he could use some better protection. Smith is the best offensive line prospect in this year’s draft and if he happens to fall this far San Diego will swoop him up. The former USC stud is more athletic and stronger than his biggest competition for the top tackle spot, Nate Solder. Smith could easily be taken before #18.
19. New York Giants – Nate Solder OT.
New York use to have the best offensive line in football a few years ago. That was then. As they stand now they could very much use a stud tackle to jump in the mix. Solder looks good enough to be a rookie starter in the NFL. This is one of the weakest drafts for offensive lineman in recent memory but Solder should have a solid if not spectacular NFL career.
20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Adrian Clayborn DE.
Tampa Bay is a very young team who performed better than expectations last year. Their key skills position players on offensive were mostly rookies but played surprisingly well and will only get better. That allows the Bucs to upgrade a big need at the defensive end position by grabbing Clayborn. This could be a terrific value pick for Tampa Bay because Clayborn is coming off a down senior year so his stock is low.
21. Kansas City Chiefs – Akeem Ayers LB.
The dominant year that Tamba Hali had last year made his teammate on the other side look awful in comparison. Kansas City would be wise to upgrade the outside linebacker position. Ayers is a versatile linebacker who can cover well in addition to his blitzing skills. Ayers versatility is what makes him a first round pick and an every down player.
22. Indianapolis Colts – Anthony Costanzo OT.
Peyton Manning did not have the kind of protection that he was accustomed to having last year. He still performed well, which is a testament to his terrific skills as a quarterback, but an upgrade at tackle is necessary to better protect Indy’s best player. Costanzo is not a freakish athlete like Tyron Smith is, but he has ideal size and outstanding technique.
23. Philadelphia Eagles – Jimmy Smith CB.
The Eagles have a sub par offensive line so they might try to upgrade there. I wouldn’t put that as the top priority though. Michael Vick is as mobile and elusive as quarterbacks get so he can avoid sacks even with a bad offensive line. Cornerback is another area of need I think they should address first. Jimmy Smith is talented enough to be a top 10 pick but character concerns will cause him to fall this far. The Eagles had success giving Vick another chance so I think they will give Smith a try as well.
24. New Orleans Saints – Justin Houston DE.
Coach Sean Payton has developed a great offense around Drew Brees. You can basically plug and play any number of players at the skill positions and get big production. New Orleans might as well wait until the later rounds to fill needs on offense and focus on bolstering their defense. Like I said before, this is a fantastic year for pass rushers and the Saints will pick up yet another in the first round, scoring Georgia’s Justin Houston. Houston fills one of New Orleans’s biggest needs and fits perfectly into their 4-3 scheme.
25. Seattle Seahawks – Brandon Harris CB.
Seattle has a porous secondary so they either need a safety or a cornerback for this pick. Brandon Harris plays with his instincts and was arguably the most impressive cornerback during drills at the combine. Prior to the combine he was projected as a second round pick but he looks like a natural for the pro game.
26. Baltimore Ravens – Gabe Carimi OT.
Michael Oher of The Blind Side fame has the left tackle spot locked down for Baltimore. The right tackle spot is up in the air and I think that coach Harbaugh will want to bring in a tackle prospect to compete for the job. Carimi is a legitimate first round prospect and the best player available.
27. Atlanta Falcons – Mike Pouncey OG.
With as much talent on the Falcons roster, the offense should have been more dominant than it was this year. I put some of the blame for that on the offensive line. Pouncey can play guard or center and if he is anything like his brother Maurkice, this will be a great pick up for Atlanta.
28. New England Patriots – Jonathan Baldwin WR.
New England has two undersized receivers (Welker and Branch) who catch most of the balls from Tom Brady. Coach Belichick obviously felt like his recievers were weak enough to trade for Branch after Randy Moss left. I think that he feels like Brady needs a bigger target to throw to at the wide out position. Baldwin is a huge receiver at 6’4” and 230 pounds. This is the type of player who could add another dimension to New England’s already formidable offense. A cornerback or safety would be good here too but I don’t see any on the table who are good enough to take in the first round.
29. Chicago Bears – Phil Taylor DT.
Taylor is the best pure nose tackle in the draft and I think he falls to Chicago who will be more than happy to take him to improve the interior of their defensive line. Chicago runs a 4-3 and Taylor would probably fit better with a 3-4 defense, but Taylor is too good to pass up. He’ll be able to adapt and stop the run in any defense. Taylor should be able to beat out Tommie Harris fairly easily to win a starting job as a rookie.
30. New York Jets – Muhammad Wilkerson DT.
Rex Ryan is a defensive minded guy. I would be shocked if he did not go defense here even though the Jets had a very good defense last year. Many key players from that defense are free agents and might not come back. Wilkerson would help fill the huge void that would be on New York’s defensive line if Shaun Ellis does not re-sign.
31. Pittsburgh Steelers – Derek Sherrod OT.
Pittsburgh is always a solid team because they build through the draft. If someone other than Sherrod is taken by the Steelers I will not criticize because they are much smarter than I am. Sherrod is the best offensive tackle on the board and the Steelers could use another good one that will eventually grow into an anchor on the left side. Roethlisberger got hit more than usual last year.
32. Green Bay Packers – Sam Acho LB.
Green Bay won a Super Bowl despite having half of their team on injured reserve. They obviously have depth to go with their top notch talent. The Packers don’t have any glaring needs and will be the team to beat next year because they are stacked on both defense and offense. The cheese head defense is not quite as good as the high flying passing attack. Clay Matthews is a beast but he is the only real rushing threat on the Packer’s blitzing 3-4 defense. Matthews needs help so that he won’t get triple teamed. Acho is not a clear first round pick but the best players available don’t fill a need. The Pack hopes that Acho will make their defense a dual threat instead of the Clay Matthews one man show.
That concludes my mock draft. Good luck to your team when draft day comes on April 28th.