Is Canelo Alvarez “Floyd-ing” Gennady Golovkin?

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By Ian “The Boxing Historian” Murphy

Now that 2015 is behind us and the quagmire of the middleweight division has at least been partially cleared up a little, we now turn our attention to what could be the mega fight of the year: Gennady “GGG” Golovkin vs Saul “Canelo” Alvarez. With Golovkin picking up the IBF belt from David Lemieux and Alvarez taking the WBC strap from Miguel Cotto, this fight would effectively bring us one step closer to total unification of the Middleweight division, with only Danny Jacobs’ “regular” (what the hell is that?) WBA belt and Brit Billy Joe Saunders WBO title left up for grabs. Being that Alvarez is the “Ring” and “Lineal” champion (the man who beat the man), the winner of this fight would be effectively considered the Middleweight Champion of the world. The question now is: Will it even happen?

The main obstacle in preventing “GGG” from fighting Alvarez rests in both Canelo’s management (Golden Boy) and the WBC. In the wake of Floyd Mayweather JR.’s supposed retirement, the boxing establishment (led by the WBC) is grooming Alvarez to take over the mantle of the “Face of Boxing”. A brutal loss would clearly derail that plan. Neither Golden Boy or the WBC can afford to lose their young Golden Goose, who is among the most popular fighters in boxing-mad Mexico, and has growing support stateside. At this time, it appears that the powers that govern Canelo wish to keep him safe and “wait out” “GGG” until he gets too old. First there was the nonsense that the fight had to happen at a catchweight (for the belt?), or more the “Canelo-weight” of 155.3279 pounds, hoping the bigger “GGG” would lose some pop during a bigger weight cut.

This is not to say that Alvarez is a hype job on the level of Deontay Wilder, because he has fought and beat quality opposition, but it does speak volumes about the concern of his management and sanctioning body. A more likely scenario is that they pit Alvarez against “safer” opponents like Billy Joe Saunders and Danny Jacobs. Both these men are coming off impressive victories and would perhaps give a good enough fight to warrant delaying a mega fight with “GGG”. Being that champions seldom fight more than twice per year these days, having Alvarez fight Jacobs and/or Saunders (with a few tune ups in between) brings us at least until late 2017, and maybe even 2018 or later. By that time, Golovkin will be at least 36 years old and perhaps past it enough for Alvarez to best him. If you think this plan is unlikely, think again…

Sugar Ray Leonard was the “Face of Boxing” for almost his entire career. After beating both Thomas Hearns and Roberto Duran, there was talk of Leonard moving up to face reigning Middleweight Champion Marvelous Marvin Hagler in 1982/1983. Leonard had a detached retina to address, but was able to fight by 1983. So, there was intense pressure for Leonard to fight Hagler. Instead, Leonard decided to retire, with a brief one fight return in 1984 versus Kevin Howard, after which he retired again. Hagler continued to roll through his opposition, culminating in “The War” in 1985 when he defeated Thomas Hearns.

Leonard had been attentively watching Hagler all this time, and by 1987, he felt that the champion had slipped enough that he might have a chance to beat him for the title. In a disputed affair, Leonard defeated Hagler by decision. Many feel that Ray waited until Hagler had aged and slowed down enough to finally make that match. What resulted is an anticlimactic match pitting a faded Hagler against a Leonard who had so many stipulations set up to favor himself (12 rounds instead of 15, 10oz gloves, 20 foot ring, etc.) in the matchup that it took away from the fight itself. Twenty-plus years later, Floyd Mayweather, JR. was accused by many as applying this very same tactic on Manny Pacquiao with “retirements”, lawsuits, and purse split disagreements. Stall tactics galore.

Like Hagler/Leonard, there was a five year build-up to Mayweather/Pacquiao. Although Floyd was the older man by a year, he had not been tested in the ring by someone close to his caliber of fighter since his 2007 mega-fight with a faded and ring-rusty Oscar De La Hoya. Pacquiao, on the other hand, took a harder road, and was fighting even further above his best weight class than Mayweather, JR. The point that needs to be illustrated is that the above argument is not intended to be a slight at Mayweather, JR. or Leonard, as both have proven their worth in the ring. What should be taken is that the Canelo/Golovkin showdown is starting to smell an awful lot like the above examples and all this does is anger and rip off boxing fans. It’s bad enough that the sport is divided into far too many weight divisions and “trampionships” (Thanks, “Bad” Brad!). The point is: do not delay this fight any longer than need be, or we won’t get the modern equivalent of “The War”, we’ll get another Mayweather, JR. vs Pacquiao, better known as “The Bore”!

It remains to be seen if Canelo Alvarez actually fights “GGG”. If it happens in the next 12 or even 18 months, the fight could be a classic. Alvarez, if he beats Golovkin at or near his prime, will cement his legacy as one of the best of his era. Will he sack up or will he stall ala Leonard and Mayweather,JR., and tease us with potential matches, all the while biding his time until Golovkin is old enough to beat? Right now, it appears like we will have to wait. A little drama and build up is fine, and let’s say “GGG” fights Jacobs and Canelo fights Saunders first. If they both win, and we get this fight in late 2016, then we are in business, an instant classic. However, this scenario is unlikely as Alvarez has to risk a lot to take the fight that early.

Canelo is a good fighter, and is near the top of the sport. However, at this time, there is no way he beats Gennady Golovkin. He is too stationary, too hittable, and too willing to mix it up. His style works against smaller men who can’t punch with him (Cotto) and hyper-aggressive brawlers who leave themselves wide open (Kirkland). This tactic is a recipe for disaster against the cracking Kazakh. If this fight happens any time in the next two years, wise money is on Golovkin, and more than likely he wins by knockout. Alvarez has yet to fight someone his own size, let alone someone naturally bigger. He walks around north of 175 lbs and whittles down to 154lbs. Golovkin is even heavier, and is a big, strong 160lb’er. Combine that with the style mismatch (“GGG” being a bigger boxer/puncher with more power and versatility), and this adds up to a bad night for Alvarez.

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