Brian’s Boxing Mailbag (Gearing Up For Manny Pacquiao Vs Joshua Clottey)
By Brian Wilbur
Hello and welcome faithful RSR readers to my boxing mailbag. Lately the boxing game has been a bit flat, with a long gap in between major fights. The fight game comes back with a mighty roar next weekend with the return of boxing biggest star, Manny Pacquiao. Pacquiao will be defending the WBO Welterweight title that he won from Miguel Cotto against top contender Joshua Clottey. As solid and intriguing as this fight is, it was a consolation fight because the super fight against Floyd Mayweather fell through. Cowboys Stadium in Arlington will be the site of this Championship battle.
I am glad to see that Pacquiao continually seeks out the best opponents who are willing to fight him. Clottey is one of those fighters who is frequently avoided because his skills far exceed his marketability. Arum must have figured that Pacquiao has enough marketability for the both of them.
I am also glad to see a major fight that is going to be held at a football stadium, to be attended by real fans instead of ending up at a Las Vegas casino. Pacquiao vs. Clottey is going to be a rare treat for boxing fans in Arlington and the surrounding areas in Texas. This time, real fans will be able to buy tickets instead of all of the tickets being bought by the casinos and given to high rollers.
As many aspects as this fight that has hardcore fans excited, one still has to admit that Pacquiao vs. Clottey is a letdown for two reasons. First, everyone was expecting the best case scenario of Pacquiao vs. Mayweather. Second, Pacquiao vs. Miguel Cotto was a bigger event than Pacquiao vs. Clottey because Cotto was a big marketable name. These types of letdown fights are dangerous for the top dog. Pacquiao clearly is the favorite, but he has to be prepared mentally and physically or he could let one slip by.
Pacquiao has effectively dealt with potential let down situations in the past. Word from his training camp is positive and that Manny is in great shape. Freddie Roach is confident as always, predicting a knockout win. Is Pacquiao letdown proof? We’ll find out Saturday.
We move onto the mailbag this week which includes my take on how the Pacquiao vs. Clottey fight will play out, my take on the quality of the undercard, some mythical matchups, and a few other topics. Enjoy!
Clottey/Pacquiao Undercard
Yo Brian,
I respect your opinion when it comes to pay per view undercards. Mainly because you always talk (censored) about them so I know you aren’t in the pocket of the promoters, hyping up crappy undercards like a yes-man, just like almost every other boxing website.
So be real with me. Is this undercard going to be any good? I ask because I am deciding whether or not I want to buy this fight since I’m not sold on the main event, meaning I’m not all that interested in Clottey.
Let me know,
-Grawg69
Grawg69,
I appreciate you complimenting my journalistic integrity. I make it my duty to be honest to my readers and point out the garbage when I see it. And yes, 95% of the PPV undercards that HBO has been churning out lately are disgustingly bad. Even for marquee events, like Pacquiao fights, instead of taking advantage of the spotlight to showcase the best of boxing, they give us nothing.
The Manny Pacquiao vs. Joshua Clottey undercard is as follows:
Humberto Soto vs. David Diaz
Alfonso Gomez vs. Jose Luis Castillo
John Duddy vs. Michael Medina
My verdict: not bad actually. This undercard does not make me want to do back flips in anticipation, but does enhance the card and is one of the better undercards in recent years.
Soto vs. Diaz is between two world rated lightweights who most boxing fans should be familiar with. Soto has been a staple of Top Rank undercards for a while now and at one point was being touted as a potential Pacquiao opponent. Diaz actually was a former Pacquiao opponent and a former World Champion. Diaz is trying to win back the WBC Lightweight title that he lost to Manny, since this match is for the vacant belt. My prediction: I think Humberto Soto’s edge in boxing skills gives him enough to win a close decision after a couple rough rounds against the hard-hitting Diaz.
Gomez vs. Castillo is an interesting crossroads bout. Gomez has had a charmed career thus far despite modest skills because he was a fan favorite on “The Contender” the TV show. He has been matched favorable, most notably when he was given a shot against the badly faded former champion and super star Arturo Gatti. He is matched up against another badly faded former champion in Castillo. This should be a war while it lasts because of the fighting style of both men. I am curious for this one only because I want to see how much Castillo (a favorite of mine) has left in the tank. My guess is that he doesn’t have much and is stopped by Gomez, further (and artificially) inflating the reputation of Gomez.
Duddy vs. Medina, which will likely open the telecast, features John Duddy, who has a huge fan base in the Irish community despite, well…not being that good of a fighter. To his credit, Duddy is an exciting action brawler who is very fun to watch. I don’t ever see him becoming a world champion but that doesn’t mean you can’t enjoy one of his fights. He is matched pretty tough here, going against Medina, a 23 year old hard hitting prospect from Mexico. I saw Duddy lose to a lesser opponent in Billy Lyell so I will predict a Medina victory, disappointing the enthusiastic Duddy fans.
Overall, I recommend buying this card because at least Bob Arum is trying this time. You have a world title bout between two recognizable names, a crossroads fight between two recognizable names, and a fan favorite is being matched tough. Again, this is much better than the undercard fodder that fans have been treated to recently so the prelim fights for Pacquiao vs. Clottey have my seal of approval.
Intriguing Fantasy Bouts: Prime vs. Prime
Dear Brian,
I pretty much agree in your views/answers in my email/question that was posted in your last mailbag. Your only takes on my proposed mythical match ups that I do not completely agree with is I do not think a prime Roy Jones would be stopped by Evander Holyfield, but he would take a beating there. Also, I felt that Zab Judah just needs his mental mindset in order to frustrate Ricky Hatton and take a comfortable unanimous decision.
I would like to ask for you views on a new set of match-ups:
Nonito Donaire vs. Hozumi Hasegawa
Juanma Lopez vs. Yuriorkis Gamboa
Paul Williams vs. Mikkel Kessler at 168
David Haye vs. Tomasz Adamek at heavyweight
Thanks and more power!
-Asero
Asero,
Zab Judah finding a sound mental mindset? That sentence doesn’t look right! He’s way too inconsistent for me to count on him in a big fight.
Here are my takes on the next crop of fights:
Nonito Donaire vs. Hozumi Hasegawa – I have only seen a few fights from Hasegawa since his fights are only televised in Asia. I’m not sure that I can make an accurate prediction for this one based on my limited knowledge of him. However he is clearly a world class fighter and one of the best bantamweights in the world. Donaire would have his hands full against a more experienced champion.
On a side note, I was elated to read that Hozumi Hasegawa signed to take on Fernando Montiel. Usually Asian World Champions are content to defend their belts against mandatory challengers and regional foes. Montiel is also a World Champion and one of the elite in the bantamweight division. I commend both fighters for making a great fight in a weight class where the best almost never fight each other. That bout is set to take place April 30th in Japan.
Juan Manuel Lopez vs. Yuriorkis Gamboa – I’ll take Lopez by KO because of his calmer temperament. Gamboa always tries to swing out of his shoes trying to knock his opponent out quickly. Both are extremely talented and hard hitting with sound fundamentals. Jaunma’s wins because he takes advantage of Yuriorkis’s borderline reckless assaults. A quick counter punch does the trick.
Paul Williams vs. Mikkel Kessler – I am leaning towards Kessler here because of his size, although Williams has a great style to defeat Mikkel. I could see Paul duplicating what Calzaghe did against Kessler, beating him with a volume of punches and using angles. Kessler, even with his good jab and impressive strength, is rigid and stiff so he can be out-boxed. This is an intriguing matchup but I go with Kessler to win, only because I respect his ability enough to think he could make use of his large size advantage. How Williams would be able to carry the extra weight and how Kessler does against Carl Froch could change my opinion.
David Haye vs. Tomasz Adamek – This would be a lot closer than most people would think since I am still not 100% convinced that David Haye is as good as his English fans think he is. Haye could potentially have some stamina issues and he is not the most fundamentally sound boxer. Adamek is a warrior with good all around skills. I’ll take Haye to win in a shoot out, although I would not be surprised by a late round collapse by Haye, allowing Adamek to walk away with a hard earned win.
Ranking Pacquiao and Predicting Upcoming Bouts (Includes My Pacquiao vs. Clottey Pick)
Hi Brian,
I haven’t been writing in your mailbag lately (though I continue to read weekly) because nothing seems to give me a plot in boxing in the past month aside from mismatches and more mismatches. I read your response about my inquiry as to where would you put Pacman in your greatest of all time list and I applaud you having the guts putting Manny Pacquaio in the top 20 all time range. That is an incredible achievement for a still active boxer.
However, I am sneaky intrigued about if you placed Pacman ahead or below Julio Cesar Chavez. Who is higher on your list of all time great pound for pound boxers: Pacquiao or Chavez?
By the way what would be your analysis and prediction on the coming Manny Pacquaio vs, Joshua Clottey fight? How about Arthur Abraham vs. Andre Dirrell? Chris Arreola vs. Tomasz Ademek? Carl Froch vs. Mikkel Kessler?
Never mind Floyd “Money” Mayweather vs. Shane Mosley since I believed, like you, that Mosley is tailored made for Money and has no chance. I am excited somehow that after three months hiatus, boxing will be in full blast in the succeeding month.
Thanks,
-Sam
Sam,
Thanks for writing in again Sam. Wow, Pacquiao or JCC; that is a tough one. I had to think about this long and hard before responding. These two greats are neck and neck. I give the edge to Manny Pacquiao, meaning that I have him higher on an all time great list. The main reason for that ranking is that I believe that Pacquiao’s quality of opposition is slightly higher, meaning that he has the scalps of more A-listers than Chavez. I am a firm believer in clear wins over top notch opposition as being the main factor in determining all time great status.
Here are my quick picks for the upcoming fights that you mention:
Manny Pacquiao vs. Joshua Clottey – You have to go with Pacquiao here. He is the hot commodity right now and Clottey tends to let close fights slip out of his hands due to lack of aggression. However I would not be surprised at an upset because Clottey is in terrific shape and has all the talent in the world. I will be watching intently and expecting anything. Clottey is a very good, world class opponent and as much as I like to say that this will be a competitive fight, I can’t bring myself to put money on Clottey, even at +475 odds.
Arthur Abraham vs. Andre Dirrell – Perhaps the experience Dirrell gained fighting Carl Froch will help him but I don’t think that it will be enough. Dirrell lost to Froch and Abraham is a large step above Froch. I see Abraham dominating Dirrell and winning by KO because Dirrell is too green to fight his fight.
Chris Arreola vs. Tomasz Adamek – The big question here is whether or not former light heavyweight Adamek can take Arreola’s heavyweight punches. My guess is that he can. Adamek is a tough cat, and he finished on his feet against Chad Dawson despite getting pummeled. I take a risk and say that Tomasz is able to out box fat, sloppy Chris “I can’t believe this is the best that America has to offer” Arreola.
Carl Froch vs. Mikkel Kessler – I was surprised how easily that Andre Ward dispatched of Kessler considering that I have always been an admirer of his. Only two explanations can make sense of that fight. Either Kessler is past his prime and will be defeated in similar fashion against Froch, or Ward is really that good and Kessler did not expect that. I am going to say that 30 year old Kessler still has something left in the tank and gives Froch a very tough fight, winning a close decision only because he has hometown advantage.
Pacquiao’s Future at Welterweight
When I see Paul Williams in the ring honing his skills, I just can’t imagine a fighter like Manny Pacquiao coming close to beating him. Paul is a master boxer in his own right and he knows how to use his height and reach very well. Let’s not forget this is a tall southpaw who can fight inside very well for a tall guy and from a distance.
As for Mayweather, the guy is just great! We both know that styles make fights Brian, and the way Floyd fights may not be a knock down, drag out style, but he has proven that it works. So if you’re a trainer you would have to ask and answer the question “What would or what could work to get this guy out of his natural rhythm?” That’s not an easy question to answer when it comes to Mayweather because everything everyone has tried to do has not worked.
What would Roach have Pacquiao do that would be different to disrupt Mayweather’s rhythm? Nothing has worked for anybody so far and I’ve seen everything from dirty fighting to being a real crybaby thrown at this man! It has not worked!!! I know the many Pacquiao fans are saying that Pacquiao would win, but I believe that’s just wishful thinking. The real question is what would he do different than the other guys that have faced Mayweather? No one has answered that question successfully so far.
-Mark Buchanan
Mark,
Paul Williams is an extremely large frame and would give anyone a headache simply because he is one of a kind and you can’t do much to prepare for him. His tough outings against Carlos Quintana and Sergio Martinez highlight his weaknesses though. His defense is terrible, meaning he is there to be hit. That does not bode well against a powerful, fast, sharp shooter like Pacquiao. I’m not sure how the fight plays out, but unlike you, I could definitely imagine a scenario where Manny wins.
As for the Mayweather fight, I don’t like your argument. What would Pacquiao do differently than other Mayweather opponents? Manny brings a completely different set of skills to the table. He has the speed and power of Zab Judah, only he is infinitely more mentally stable than Judah, has better endurance, is a better boxer, and uses more angles. Mayweather would be in against an entirely different beast compared to his previous opponents if he fights Pacquiao.
Now don’t misinterpret me now. My prediction for Mayweather vs. Pacquiao if it ever happens is a Mayweather decision and that is what it has always been. My objection with your logic is that you paint Mayweather out to be this unsolvable riddle and that Pacquiao couldn’t possibly do anything to beat Mayweather that Floyd’s previous opponents haven’t already tried. I don’t buy that for a minute.
We are getting ahead ourselves though. Pacquiao and Mayweather both have scheduled fights that they have to win before Mayweather vs. Pacquiao can even be a possibility.
Wilbur Affecting the Odds
Brian,
In a couple of your recent mailbags and emails you stated that you thought Floyd Mayweather was going to beat Shane Mosley, that Mosley would be lucky to land even a meaningful punch let alone a round, that Mayweather beats this version of Mosley 100 times if they fight 100 times. Those are bold words considering Shane Mosley’s status as the #3 ranked welterweight in the world. At the time you said that the betting odds were about 3 to 1 or 2.5 to 1 with Mayweather as the favorite.
Since then the odds have shifted even more skewed with Mayweather being almost a 4 to 1 favorite. Wow! That is a big shift I would say. Did you have anything to do with those odds being shifted you think? I mean, did people read your column, take your advice, and bet the mortgage on Mayweather? If so, your column has an even bigger impact than I could have imagined!
-Richard
Richard,
I also noticed the movement of the betting lines making it harder to make money on a Mayweather win. I don’t think my column had much to do with it though! I am humbled if it did. The real reason, I think, that the line moved so much is that the “smart” money, or professional gamblers who know the game inside and out, agree with my take on Mayweather vs. Mosley.
I mean, I don’t see how anyone could pick Mosley here looking at all of the factors. Clearly Mosley is a quality opponent and belongs in the ring with any welterweight in the world so this is no knock on Floyd’s opponent choice. Merit does not win a fight though. Styles make fights and Mayweather has the perfect style. Look at Mosley’s losses and struggles and always it was against a stick and move type opponent. Mayweather can box, stick and move, and fight a defensive fight even better than the guys who schooled Mosley. This is going to be a no contest.
I will end it here folks. I look forward to reading your emails. Enjoy the fights!