Julio Cesar Chavez, JR – Andrzej Fonfara: High Chance Of Upset

By Travis Fleming

This Saturday night on Showtime, live from Carson, California, Julio Cesar Chavez, JR., 48-1-1 32 KO’s, makes his debut at light heavyweight against top ten contender Andrzej Fonfara, 26-3-0 15 KO’s, of Poland. On paper, it would appear that this is a showcase fight for Chavez to test the waters at 175 lbs for the first time, but choosing Fonfara as his welcome into the division could prove to be a big mistake for the son of a legend. Chavez’s legendary father saw as much, and advised against his son taking this match up, hoping that his son would instead fight a higher profile opponent who poses less of a risk. In Fonfara, they’ve made the odd choice of facing a man who is a high risk, low reward type of opponent after an entire career of playing it safe.

Chavez, JR. has been protected for most of his career; it took him 8 years and 43 fights before he stepped up to face a decent opponent. Along the way, and since, Chavez has benefited from his famous name and has been gifted decisions in fights he should have lost, because he has star power and brings a lot of money to the table in the way of the loyal Mexican fans who lend him their support because of how much they loved his father. Since 2011, Chavez has beaten some decent fighters and even gave, then middleweight king, Sergio Martinez a scare when he knocked him down in the final round of their highly anticipated showdown. Unfortunately, Chavez lost every other round, and the decision, when Martinez managed to get up and survive until the final bell. Chavez was always a giant middleweight who had trouble making weight at 160 lbs, so after the Martinez loss he moved up to super middleweight for a pair of bouts with journeyman Brian Vera. In their first fight, the massive underdog Vera battered Chavez only to see Chavez once again have his hand raised in a controversial decision that fans all over were disgusted by. He beat Vera in a clear but competitive decision in a rematch but failed to impress as Vera is a very small super middleweight and has never been a top tier fighter. Chavez has irked a lot of fans with his unprofessional and spoiled attitude, giving off a sense of entitlement for having a legendary father. A lot of fans point to Chavez’ success as owing to his draining in weight to fight in a division where everyone’s smaller than he is. He has shown a severe lack of dedication and discipline throughout his career with weight problems, contractual disputes, and positive drug tests, but he does have a ton of natural talent when he’s on his game, which isn’t too often. He destroyed current WBO middleweight champion Andy Lee and has shown glimpses of his fathers bull like approach with a vicious body attack. Chavez is in the top five best body punchers in the sport today and when he’s on point he can be a joy to watch, but we never know what version of Chavez is going to show up on fight night.

Fonfara is a very hard working fighter and his career is the polar opposite of that of Chavez. Fonfara had to earn it the hard way in the ring with little fanfare and favoritism. He made his way from Poland to America and has put in some excellent showings, demonstrating a good skill set and punching power. He is a tall, rangy, natural light heavyweight. He holds impressive KO’s over former champ Gabriel Campillo and recent Chad Dawson conquerer Tommy Karpency, as well as a decision over “The Road Warrior” Glen Johnson. Most impressive, however, was his close decision loss to current light heavyweight king Adonis Stevenson last year. Fonfara showed he was not willing to get bullied by the power punching Stevenson and even dropped Stevenson himself on route to a close points loss. Fonfara is a hungry fighter, he’s as tough as they get, he’s a big man for the division and he’s got a lot of dog in him.

Chavez will have his hands full with Fonfara, and although Fonfara’s not a big name, should Chavez beat him convincingly in his first fight at light heavyweight, we should all give Chavez a ton of credit for redeeming himself. Anything less that the very best version of Chavez will be in for a long painful night and an extremely career damaging loss. We rarely see the best version of Chavez, so how likely is it that he will be motivated enough to show it against a relatively unknown Fonfara? Chavez has never faced a legit super middleweight, let a lone a very big top ten light heavyweight with two inches in height on him. Chavez got outfought by the extremely limited Brian Vera so don’t be surprised to see the equally determined, yet much bigger and much better, Fonfara enforce his will and walk away with the upset win. If you’re a betting man, this is one of those great scenarios where you should lay your money down on the underdog.

Official prediction: Fonfara by UD for the upset!