UFC Shocks Fans – Breaking MMA News

By Barnaby Kellaway

This Saturday night the UFC puts on its best PPV of 2015 so far. The main card features two title fights in the main event slots accompanied by a string of top contender bouts. Here we break down the key contests and pick a winner.

JOSEPH BENAVIDEZ VS JOHN MORAGA

John Dodson, a wonderful wrestling and submission artist, goes in to this one the favourite. But as good as he is, history tells us that he is a long way from the top of the mountain, having had two fights against each of Demetrius Johnson and Dominick Cruz, combining for the only losses of his career. It is this record which puts him in a strange position in the division, much like Miesha Tate in the women’s bantamweight: they both have two losses to the incumbent champion but appear to be better than everyone else. All they can do now is beat every other contender until they are the only ones left. It is looking like Tate will get her third go at Rousey if she beats Jessica Eye in July and if Benavidez can score victory on Saturday, such is the sparseness of the flyweight division, he may get another date with DJ.

John Moraga has had equally disappointing outings against those at the top of the pile, also having a loss against Johnson in addition to two losses against number one contender, John Dodson. It will be important for Moraga to keep his opponent at a distance, if Benavidez forces him on to his back then it will be a long and gruelling night. However, if Moraga can keep it on the feet he may fancy his chances. He possess a sharp counter strike and this may be what he relies on.

A three fight win streak in the flyweight division is significant so a win for either man would be huge. For Moraga it would be the biggest of his career whilst for Benavidez it would be further proof that he is the best of the rest and has a better chance than anyone else to challenge for the title. All in all Benavidez is the more well rounded fighter and this should be what counts on the night. He is too good on the ground to get submitted and Moraga doesn’t have the power to knock him out.

BENAVIDEZ TO WIN BY DECISION

TRAVIS BROWNE VS ANDREI ARLOVSKI

Although being at the opposite end of the scale, the heavyweight and flyweight divisions are similar in the sense that the depth of competition is limited. Meaning whoever wins this fight could be the next in line for the title, or at the very least only one fight away. When you remember that he held the belt a decade ago, it is miraculous that Arlovski is once again at the top. Though it could be argued that he is fortuitous to be there. Since returning the to the UFC he has beaten a washed up Antonio Silva and pulled off a controversial split decision against Brendan Schaub, a fight which had no one on their feet. This two in two record is however better than his opponents. Before hastily dispatching of the aforementioned Brendan Schaub, Browne got dominated by interim champion, Fabricio Werdum. Between those fights though, the Hawaiian switched states and gyms from Jackson/Wink in New Mexico to Glendale Fighting Club in California. Judging by the comparison in performance the move was a successful one.

The problem for Browne in this fight is that he tends to leave holes in order to attack, if the immensely hard hitting Arlovski can find one then it could be lights out. However, Browne has shown great improvement in each fight in recent years, he appears to be on an upward trajectory. He has the best movement in the heavyweight division, some of the most outrageous and effective kicks and good durability. What has let him down in the past is his conditioning and his game plan. The hope is that his new team have remedied these problems, if they have he will win this fight.

BROWNE TO WIN BY KO

DONALD CERRONE VS JOHN MAKADESSI

This fight was originally supposed to be Cerrone vs Nurmagamedov but another injury for the Russian forced him out and gifted Makdessi the opportunity of a career. For the unranked Canadian this is a win win situation, if he loses it is expected but if he wins then he shocks the world and propels himself in to the rankings. On the other hand, Cerrone has it all to lose, all the momentum he has gained during his seven fight winning streak could be stolen. This is however highly unlikely and because of Nurmagamedov’s persistent injury problems it is expected that if ‘Cowboy’ gets the win on Saturday then he will receive the next title shot, no one could begrudge him of that.

Donald Cerrone has struggled most in the past against opponents who suffocate him and disallow him from dictating the fight on the feet. He should not have this problem on Saturday, Makdessi, a boxer, will likely try and stand with him. With no submission victories on his record the fight become even easier for Cerrone, he just has to be careful when throwing kicks not to leave a gap for a Makdessi fist to fly through. ‘Cowboy’ is the heavy favourite and will win this; his last fight before a title shot.

CERRONE TO WIN BY SUBMISSION

CHRIS WEIDMAN VS VITOR BELFORT

There is one big question coming in to this middleweight title-fight: how good will Vitor Belfort be after eighteen months out and having come off testosterone replacement therapy? He looked excellent in his last three outings, winning each of them a with spectacular head-kick knockout. But that was before the UFC banned the use of TRT. The man coming out on Saturday, as well as being considerably older, could be considerably diminished. This it as variance with the champ, who will turn up and grind away at his opponent with unbelievable intensity.

The key for the former light-heavyweight champion will be to to start fast and look for an early finish, he has the UFC record for most first round finished with twelve. If Weidman can weather the early assault then he will take advantage of the exhausted challenger and cruise home. Another key factor is that the lack of TRT in Belfort’s system is expected to reduce his cardio, an area in which Weidman is outstanding. A further advantage for Weidman is the ground game, the all-American is one of the best wrestlers in the sport. When you consider that Belfort has a fairly meagre takedown-defence rate of 51% it is highly probable that a large proportion of this fight will take place with the Brazilian on his back.

WEIDMAN TO WIN BY DECISION

ANTHONY JOHNSON VS DANIEL CORMIER

With Jon Jones being stripped of his title, it is down to these two to scrap it out for the vacant light-heavyweight championship. It is a compelling matchup, the olympic level wrestling of Cormier versus the pulverising power punches of Johnson. The latter comes in to this unbeaten in his second stint in the UFC, having brutally knocked out his last two foes. Cormier on the other hand is heading in to his second straight title fight after losing by decision to Jon Jones. Despite that loss Cormier is undoubtedly as his peak, a loss to the best fighter in the world does not mean you are not great.

As far as the fight goes, assume that Johnson will come out in the first round with the same breakneck aggression that he did against Gustafsson, a fight in which he recorded a two minute TKO. In this instance Cormier will employ his wrestling superiority and attempt to close the distance, probably looking for a takedown. It is in these frantic early exchanges that the fight could be decided: will Johnson be able to scupper the advances of ‘DC’ and return with a hammer blow? ‘Rumble’ has a decent takedown defence record, which he preserved when he snubbed attempt after attempt of Phil Davis, the 2008 NCAA wrestling champion, to drag him to mat. Going in to this fight Johnson will take huge encouragement from that particular performance over any other.

It would be foolish to count out the striking of Cormier, as unconventional as it is, it works. He has a quick jab, a sharp uppercut and a booming overhand right so if the fight doesn’t go quite to plan and ‘DC’ has to box Johnson then he could cause some problems. With this being said, he nowhere near possess the power that Johnson does.

This is a very tough fight to call, as the betting lines reflect with Cormier the slight favourite at -135. But the slight underdog should complete a miraculous career arc by carrying on his path of absolute destruction and putting anyone in his way to sleep.

JOHNSON TO WIN BY KO

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