Terence Crawford – Hank Lundy: Breaking It Down by the Numbers

By Andrew “Drew The Picture” Hames

This Saturday’s showdown between WBO Junior Welterweight Champion Terence Crawford and the battle-tested Philadelphian fighter “Hammerin’ Hank” Lundy has generally been regarded with a certain level of disdain that would suggest this bout to be an outward mismatch from its very inception. Crawford has after all been nothing short of sensational thus far in his young career, and would deservedly be a likely favorite against any contender in his division, especially one in Lundy who statistically has lost two of his last 5 fights. However, contrary to popular belief, as all true fight fans realize by now, records can be misleading, and it is ultimately styles and circumstances that determine the outcomes of fights, not mere resumes or public perceptions of the better overall fighter. It’s for these reasons I’ll be posing the argument that this fight may indeed turn out to be much more competitive than public expectations or popular boxing media would suggest, which I personally would benefit the sport immensely….

Save for the early rounds against then unbeaten, Cuban amateur standout Yuriorkis Gamboa (albeit largely under-sized), at 27-0 (19 KO’s), Crawford has remained dominant ever since making his HBO debut on March 30, 2013, taking on both a short-notice fight and a trip up in weight to dominate former lightweight and then junior welterweight puncher Breidis Prescott, showcasing his switch-hitting abilities in an efficient manner that immediately resulted in comparisons between his fighting style and that of the great Pernell Whittaker. Perhaps those rumblings were a bit premature then, and the performance was followed up by fairly underwhelming yet dominant victories over Alejandro Sanabria and Andrey Klimov in a relatively quiet finish to the 2013 boxing calendar for him. The following year, Crawford’s reputation around the sport would form, and hasn’t taken a backwards step ever since, travelling to Glasgow, Scottland to relieve Ricky Burns of his WBO lightweight title, and having perhaps his signature performance in his first defense of that title, calmly bouncing back from an early deficit on the scorecards to stop Gamboa in dramatic fashion, or as the always overly enthusiastic Jim Lampley referred to it, “A star-making performance of the highest order”. He would go on to beat two opponents in

Raymundo Beltran (who many believed to be the true top lightweight in the world at the time, as Crawford himself acknowledged that Beltran honestly deserved the win in his own controversial draw with Burns) and former welterweight puncher Thomas Dulourme, both of whom own victories over Lundy, and the latter of whom Crawford faced in his official junior welterweight debut and stopped, which along with his most recent stoppage of former Canadian amateur standout Dierry Jean, has stretched the Pernell comparisons to those of fighters more complimentary to styles resembling Crawford’s evolving offense, such as the wiry Tommy Hearns and the switch-hitting Marvin Hagler. Perhaps premature again, but his skill set certainly makes the resemblances understandable. Beyond that, he’s reportedly been turned down as an opponent by such names as Mauricio Herrera, Ruslan Provodnikov, and most recently Manny Pacquiao….And he’s also currently ranked among the top 10 P4P fighters in the sport. I’d say the guy is making quite a name for himself….

“Hammerin’ Hank”, 26-5-1, 13 KO’s, may not have a resume full of A-level opposition, but perhaps the most deceiving aspect of his resume is that all 5 losses were competitive, with his last two even being debatable, coming up short in a technical decision loss to Mauricio Herrera that most observers believed he’d actually won, and a controversial split-decision loss to Thomas Dulourme. In fact, the remaining losses on his resume all came under compromising circumstances, none of which he was ever officially dominated in. Like Crawford, Lundy ventured into foreign territory in March of 2013 to challenge current WBC Junior Welterweight Champion Viktor Postol, losing a fight that realistically was nowhere near as one-sided as the UD would indicate. The lone remaining loss was his very first, coming against John Molina Jr, in a fight where Lundy otherwise completely dominated before allowing boredom to lead to carelessness.

In reality, Lundy has never actually been dominated in a fight, which is in part why he carries the same prideful, boastful, third-person-talking personality he had as a rising, unbeaten talent on ESPN’s “Friday Night Fights” with him today. Lundy is also far more battle-tested than Crawford’s previous junior welterweight opponents, having beaten Danny Williams, Richar Abril, Ajose Olusegun, and the 5 aforementioned fighters he had competitive and often controversial losses to. Lundy and Crawford are also alike stylistically, at least from the standpoint of switch-hitting equally well from orthodox to southpaw, and even in being turned down by more noteworthy opposition, with Lundy himself having been rejected in the past for fights with Ruslan Provodnikov, Lucas Matthysse, etc… Lundy also matches up well with Crawford’s usual height advantages, only yielding one inch to the 5’8 Crawford on the tale of the tape, and bringing with him the belief that his resume of experience supersedes that of Crawford’s….

Taking the shovel a bit deeper, the psychological aspects may favor Lundy in several ways, beyond the obvious win-win situation of being an underdog in the first place. There’s an old saying in boxing that “No opponent is tougher than a veteran who’s been hit enough times in the head to still think he’s unbeaten” (actually it’s not so much of an “old saying as one I just said now. So don’t forget who’s claiming the copyright if you hear it later) , and Lundy’s arrogance is somewhat justified in that regard. He’s a Philly fighter who took up the sport late, as a former football player for Simon Gratz High School in North Philly, and dedicated himself to making up for his lack of an extensive amateur career by becoming a gym rat in a town historically known for its savage gym wars, and legends produced by them. And the prideful machismo masked inside his arrogance suggests that he’ll want to back it up and won’t look to fully cooperate in a Terence Crawford commercial, especially getting a major title shot on HBO he very well may never see again.

If ever there was a fighter to believe when he repeats the cliche “He’ll have to knock me out to win”, I think he’s passing the polygraph on this one. And while it should be obvious that a fighter beating a fighter or fighters that his opponent lost to doesn’t promise he’ll beat his opponent (tongue twister there? Geesh) just as Crawford dominated Beltran and Dulourme while Lundy has losses to both, Crawford had a loss to Danny Garcia in their amateur rivalry, who’s an outstanding, 2-division unbeaten world champion in his own right, but also one that Lundy reportedly got the better of in their many Philly gym wars. And perhaps most importantly, he’s thoroughly convinced that the disrespect he’s shown to Crawford has already began to show results in the mental warfare department, due to Crawford’s uncharacteristically abrasive responses, cursing, mentions of his street credibility, etc. Could the kid from Omaha, Nebraska be lured into trying to prove his toughness to a cocky, disrespectful Philly fighter, especially after having scored all knockouts since moving up in weight and most recently dominating a fighter in Dierry Jean who also took verbal shots at him and guaranteed victory? Madison Square Garden could very well be in for a shock Saturday night…

My educated guess however, says that Crawford is a bit too level-headed, poised and technique-oriented to fall into the trap, at least completely, and he’ll likely look to keep Lundy at a respectable distance most of the fight, as Viktor Postol did, and likely takes Hank on the scorecards, but youthful enthusiasm can often cause mistakes, just as veterans often grow wise to their past errors and learn from them, and since Lundy is far more used to the trash-talk and the more experienced of the two switch-hitting technicians on the world class level (although Crawford did have a far more decorated amateur career, netting wins over both Danny and Mikey Garcia in the mix), it could make for fireworks. I just hope the 4th Of July makes its first 2016 appearance on April 27.

Signing off until next time….

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