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Vinny’s Views: Adonis Stevenson Vs Andrzej Fonfara II: The Stats, The Facts & The Prediction!

By Vinny “Glory Days” Lucci

The transition from spring to summer is still ushering in some entertaining matchups with Terence Crawford and Kell Brook making highly anticipated defenses of their respective titles in the next two weeks. Hot on the heels of those bouts Adonis “Superman” Stevenson will attempt to shake off almost a year of ring rust with the formidable challenge of one Andrzej Fonfara. Hardcore fans will remember back in May of 2014 Stevenson won a hard fought and entertaining 12 round unanimous decision over Fonfara who was an overwhelming live under dog. The champion was making his third defense of the WBC Light heavyweight title he won the previous year with a one round assassination of Chad Dawson.

The first encounter looked like a mismatch on paper even though the challenger was well traveled and fought his way through the school of hard knocks earning his shot. The lanky super middleweight had been fighting at 175 lbs for four years but still appeared frail except for the saving grace of wide shoulders. His gaunt neck belied the look of a tough boxer, but his heart and ability nonetheless got him an introduction with the champion.

The challenger was dropped in the first round and almost beaten into submission. He gamely survived, regrouped and made a fight of it not only hearing the final bell but dropping the champion in the ninth round. Final scores were 116-109 and 115-110 (twice). Post-fight Stevenson claimed he injured his left hand early in the contest.

Behind the scenes the WBC has recently slated Columbian Eleider Alvarez as its number one mandatory contender. Both fighters are managed by Al Haymon and promoted by Yvon Michel who arranged for Alvarez to accept step aside money allowing Stevenson the chance to yet again make a voluntary defense. Enter old friend and nemesis Andrzej.

The stats:

Adonis Stevenson stands 5’11” with a 77” wingspan. The Haitian from Canada is a southpaw with a 28-1, 23 KO’s record. The champion is 39 years old.
Andrzej Fonfara is known as the ‘”Polish Prince” standing 6’2” with a 77” reach. The 29 year old fighter from Poland fights from orthodox stance and owns a 29-4-1, 17 KO’s resume.

The Event:

Before challenger change the new Nassau Coliseum in Long Island New York was to showcase bout. The champion will now host on home field advantage in Canada at Bell Centre, Montreal, Quebec. The champion will be making his 8th title defense. Main event to be televised by Showtime.

The Odds:

Based on previous encounter the champion has been installed as heavy favorite at -900 to Fonfara’s +600. While always a very live underdog the Vegas line is correct.

Previous bout:

The champion last fought in July of 2016 with a fourth round knockout of Thomas Williams, JR. in a voluntary defense and looked sharp against average competition. The challenger made a rousing comeback after getting TKO’d by heavy handed Joe Smith, JR. in one round by going to war with Chad Dawson this past March stopping the former champion with thirty eight seconds left on 10 round bout. The effort earned him his second shot at Stevenson.

Styles:

The champion is a cocky fellow who strongly believes in his talent. His southpaw stance and power have helped him remain on top of the division heap while he shamefully avoided former multi-belt holder Sergey Kovalev. He fights behind a heavy jab always seeking a path for his heavy handed bombs. He sometimes neglects defense when the ambers of combat are burning and occasionally leads a combo with an uppercut. He can fight a brisk pace for duration of fight and has a durable if not perfect chin.

The challenger is a bit of an enigma looking too thin to possess light heavyweight respect and yet gets good leverage on punches when his foes aren’t expecting it. His chin has been tested against game opposition like Glen Johnson, Julio Caser Chavez, JR., Nathan Cleverly, and Chad Dawson besting all. His failed title bid in first match with Adonis earned him a world of respect but his recent one round blow out to Smith raises questions more questions than answers. Andrzej keeps that chin tucked to his chest but has no shock absorber for a neck to stabilize equilibrium when a big punch gets through his guard.

The Vinny Factor:

Handicapping this one has several intangibles. First and foremost will the long layoff effect Stevenson who after first coronation has settled into fighting twice a year? If so, will being just a few months shy of his 40 birthday take the cape off Superman just enough for a strong willed competitor to exploit it? Will the supposed hand injury he claimed from first encounter make all the difference sans pain?

On the other side of chess board will Fonfara be able to once again withstand an early onslaught and be able to weather the storm or will his chin fail him miserably as it did against Joe Smith Jr? Can team Fonfara capitalize on their game plan keeping Adonis on wrong foot or reaching for power shots while he circles and pivots to right away from his left hand? Can he match jabs with the champion without surrendering real estate or balance inside the pocket?

What to look for on fight night: The champion will once again ignite the fray of action looking to get bout done with early. If he lands a single telling shot he’ll pounce the taller man like a jaguar for all he’s worth. Only a well-placed counter hay maker will deter his forward progression. It will be clear that team Stevenson will be looking to go home early. Should the challenger once again survive the early carnage of fury and fight his way back into contest it could very well lead into another exciting yet one sided bout.
Should the title defense head in the direction of later rounds Fonfara has to get his older foe tired and winded to take advantage to find his range for his best power shots. Juxtaposed Stevenson can’t get careless and must win round by round allowing KO to present itself instead of trying to force one expelling precious energy.

Prediction: Adonis Stevenson by S.O.S. (stoppage or scorecards)

While it would be poetic justice for many fans and media should Fonfara pull the upset it just isn’t likely. The boxing community by and large were terribly disappointed the champion pretty much cherry picked his title reign as his counterpart took on the better challengers. With Andre Ward rematching Sergey Kovalev the following week in June over the hotly contested scorecards from their November debacle Adonis is once again hand picking his retirement money in the guise of chosen contenders. Should he as expected turn back the challenge of Fonfara he has to next face Alvarez having turned forty years of age putting a match against the Ward/Kovalev winner in jeopardy of ever happening.

Stay tuned…

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