Vinny’s Views: Gennady “GGG” Golovkin Vs Canelo Alvarez – The Stats, The Facts and The Fight Prediction is In!
By Vinny “Glory Days” Lucci
With all the fanfare generated by spectacle of Floyd Mayweather, JR. putting his unblemished 49-0 record on the line against MAA star Conor McGregor’s unbeaten 0-0 boxing ledger I thought it was the perfect time to focus on what’s truly important ahead. The ultimate middleweight showdown extravaganza between two of boxing’s top pound for pound combatants had lingered on the boxing vine for four years undisturbed while it’s champion grew a tad older and perhaps past his peak. In covering this bout as it finally came to fruition and ink on contract dried I sat back and digested the landscape before rushing to judgment with preconceived notions and expectations.
Enter Saul “Canelo” Alvarez stepping up from his promoter Oscar De La Hoya’s catch weight abyss and finally addressing the long sought after challenge addressed by undisputed 160 lbs Kazan king, Gennady Golovkin. Yes, the WBO recognizes Billy Joe Saunders as their champion but he has done little to nothing with his share of the belts and his pathetic reign which includes one sloppy title defense against little known Artur Akavov since winning his paper title back in December 2015. So as the media went into a frenzy on May 6th as fight was announced post Alvarez/Chavez, JR. ringside, yours truly finally weighs in on the long overdue fight of the year candidate and ponders why this match has lost a bit of steam and does it carry the clout of equal status like vintage Marvin Hagler VS Thomas Hearns. In comparison, yes, it has been 32 years since a middleweight championship fight carried this much interest.
Background Check:
The champion turned pro in 2006 and has been a belt holder since 2010. He is preparing to make his 19th defense of his titles. Gennady owns the WBA, IBF, and WBC middleweight titles.
Canelo turned pro in 2005, and quickly established himself as a force to be reckoned with winning a variety of non-specific supplemental titles like NABF, WBC Fedecentro, and WBC Youth belts before actually winning and defending WBC light middleweight strap (154 pounds.) In 2015, he went on to win the WBC middleweight title from Miguel Cotto but the bout was contested at a catch weight of 155 breaking protocol and tradition of whats generally regarded as boxing’s premiere weight class. He vacated the belt in avoidance of a compelling unification match with Golovkin when ordered by the very ranking body that helped elevate him to star status on grounds he would not allow anybody to dictate the terms of his career. He re-established belt holder status last September with a ninth round KO of WBO Junior middleweight champ Liam Smith.
The Stats:
“GGG” as he is known to fans worldwide, is 35 years old and of Kazakhstani decent now residing in Los Angeles California. Golovkin stands 5’10 ½” and is a natural 160 lbs. His reach is 70” and fights from the orthodox stance. His record is impeccable at 37-0, 33 KO’s of which he just snapped a 23 bout KO streak in his last bout.
Canelo is of Mexican descent and still resides in Mexico. Alvarez stands a reported 5’9” but looks to appear to be at a complete 2 inch height differential when nose to nose with the middleweight champion. He also fights from the orthodox stance with a 70½” wingspan. The 26 year old has been a professional boxer since he was fifteen years old and has achieved superstar status as he is at pinnacle and prime of his career. His outstanding record boasts a 49-1-1, 34 KO’s ledger with lone loss coming at the hands of Floyd Mayweather, JR. by decision when the moneyman reached his own personal apex.
The Venue:
Promoted by Golden Boy Productions headed by Oscar De La Hoya. The bout is to be held at T- Mobile Arena in Las Vegas which seats 20,000 which is almost sold out as of this writing. The date to circle on your calendar is September 16th but be prepared to shell out the $99 dollar PPV extortion fees, hosted by HBO. (I always recommend getting even with the greedy promoters by streaming live bouts off the internet for free.) In the noble timeless swords of P.T. Barnum, “There’s a sucker born every minute…”
On paper, this much ballyhooed matchup is as good as it possibly gets but hot on the heels of some ugly politics that plague boxing I wonder aloud if any residual effects linger in the air with hopes it will be tolerated as business as usual? More on this in wrap up.
Styles:
What makes this bout so intriguing is the thoroughbred and pedigree of both combatants. Two skillful boxers with bruising power and granite proven chins colliding in ring center like two misguided asteroids in outer space on a long overdue collision course with nowhere to go but up close and personal. Both fighters could be considered flat footed but it’s Gennady who gets up on the balls of his feet when dishing out mayhem. Canelo is so flat footed he literally has to reset every time he throws a combination which Mayweather, JR. exploited to his advantage.
Each man makes considerable use of uppercuts inside the pocket and seek to shrink real estate of the ring into phone booth warfare. The two champs are battled tested and neither possess a stamina problem. Golovkin has better lateral movement but has forgone head movement in his last two bouts against Daniel Jacobs and Kell Brook his two most accomplished opponents. Alvarez has improved his defensive skills since losing all but one round against Mayweather, JR. four years ago.
What to look for:
In looking to dominate and take control of the bout both boxers must measure the distance correctly and look to establish an educated jab while hoping to land meaningful power shots that set up combinations. Canelo has been a proven dynamo when paired against other flat footed fighters. Against Alfredo Angulo, James Kirkland, and Liam Smith Canelo was able to launch grenades with wild abandon shaking his foes to their core and bringing bouts to forgone conclusion stoppages, but when faced against boxers of speed and mobility, he must rely on judges’ score cards for victory as he was unable to stop Shane Mosley, Austin Trout, Erislandy Lara, Miguel Cotto, and Julio Cesar Chavez, JR. The afore mentioned bouts wrapped around the Mayweather, JR. loss suggest the challenger will get ample chances to land his best artillery and give rise to the De La Hoya hopes of pulling off a minor upset.
The champion has bested nothing but legit middleweight contenders his entire career and turning them into mere mortals. While Canelo has feasted on blown up welterweights and dehydrated middleweights with his catch weight madness making a semi mockery of the hallowed sport. He has become such a crowd pleasing favorite both the media and fans have turned a blind eye to what many could consider cherry picking his legacy with Amir Kahn of fragile welterweight chin fame being his plum on that cherry tree.
The intangibles:
Has all those hand-picked fights given team Alvarez a false sense of security while playing the waiting game of letting “GGG” age in hopes of being ripe for the taking or has the plan backfired by not allowing him to truly test the middleweight waters on fair canvas mano a mano? Can Canelo take the blunt force trauma shots that “GGG” will inflict or will the drastic up grade in power be his undoing?
Will Gennady be reaching for Canelo allowing himself to be countered by hammers or will he once again demonstrate the head movement and ever changing angles while cutting off ring setting up his own arsenal of weapons? In an all-out crap shoot like Hagler-Hearns does Gennady own the better chin and will he seek to take one to land one as he did against Kell Brook? If I were in the Golovkin corner I would be dusting off the blue prints of his win over rugged David Lemieux reminding his manager-trainer Abel Sanchez that “GGG” has a ramrod lighting pole for a jab when he fights behind it and perpetual angles and turned a possible war into a one sided beat down stoppage. Knowing Canelo can’t get his feet out of first gear it would be senseless to engage his wrath along the ropes for any sustained amount of time.
Odds:
Early Vegas odds have made Golovkin the early favorite while infuriating the promoter who has a vested interest in the challenger. The bout opened at a solid -350 to +265 and depending on hotel or venue accepting wagers has moved to a more modest -180 to +150. I believe just a year ago Gennady had the goods to stop Canelo in a crowd pleasing fight around the ninth or tenth round. Since then both Brook and Jacobs proved the champion to be mortal landing more power shots than anyone previous.
Speculation surrounds those bouts as media was teased with that Golovkin purposely allowed himself to get tagged against Brook in order to draw Jacobs to the bargaining table, and held back against Jacobs just enough to win to encourage Canelo to step up to the dance floor. Now that the smoke has cleared I still like Golovkin’s ability to box and history of facing bigger men. Canelo who claimed to be a Junior middleweight for years as an excuse for not accepting the middleweight’s challenge has entered the ring at least ten pounds over the middleweight limit for years making a farce of his catch weight Mirada.
The Vinny Factor:
Fans of Ringside Report know I take this moment to think outside the box and roped off ring and highlight a key note factor behind the scenes that fans just might not read anywhere else. Going back to the promoter having a vested interest in Canelo he’s more than a friend, Alvarez is his biggest attraction and known as the “Golden Goose” to Golden Boy Productions. Most gym rats and media do not believe Saul has been nervous to tangle with Golovkin but insiders get the read the Oscar who never turned down a challenge in his own career has been overly protective of Canelo and literally waited out “GGG’s” prime. Canelo enters ring same weight as Golovkin regardless of who he tangles with so the bullshit that he wasn’t a full-fledged middleweight doesn’t score points with anyone.
Add to the fact that Oscar has the largest controlling interest in ownership of Ring Magazine who “still” award Alvarez as lineal middleweight champion even though he abdicated his WBC belt after knocking out glass chinned welterweight Amir Kahn well over a year ago. Golden Boy is based out of Los Angles and host most huge events in Vegas. On the stench of this month’s rancid decision of Jeff Horn over Manny Pacquiao with the blessing of pathetic alphabet soup WBO, and low blow debacle of last month’s Andre Ward TKO over former champ Sergey Kovalev where the champion was never warned or penalized and stoppage was clearly too soon I trust no one that this fight will be officiated fairly. Should a rotten stoppage or decision occur it gets swept under the carpet as business as usual. Why such negative thinking? Read on.
Post -fight and Aftermath:
There is a one of a kind rematch clause this reporter has never witnessed before and its abysmal dictatorship was written in place at Oscar’s insistence. Should Canelo win, by any circumstances, he is not obligated to give the long reining former champion a rematch, but has the option to do so if he loses. Yes, you read the right. If Gennady is cut, robbed, or breaks a leg stumbling up ring steps he has no legal recourse but public opinion to warrant a rematch. For Oscar and his company its win at all costs.
This has put Abel Sanchez in a terrible come from behind position. If I were team Golovkin I would be revising the Lemieux plan to perfection because both his and “GGG’s” unblemished middle weight careers are on the line here. That being said, “GGG” needs to control the bout and go for the stoppage. Not an easy task against a foe with bull neck and granite chin.
Prediction:
Golovkin by decision. It won’t be easy. Daniel Jacobs got his attention but backed off every time he did. Canelo won’t. He lives for the pocket. “GGG” will have to use movement and angles against a foe who has a better defense than himself. Footwork is the key. He must land 35% of his jabs and his power shots to rebuke the formidable challenge. For the good of boxing pray for a just and fair decision either way.
Stay tuned…
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