Vinny’s Views: Miguel Cotto Vs Sadam Ali – The Stats, The Facts & The Fight Prediction is In!
By Vinny “Glory Days” Lucci
When it was first reported that Miguel Cotto was publicly seeking the winner of September super fight between Gennady Golovkin and Canelo Alvarez I thought it was too good to be true. It was. The fact that when Miguel held the middleweight title and wanted no part of tangling with triple G wasn’t going to be held against him if match be made. Cotto did an excellent job of boxing against Canelo the night he lost his title so envisioning either match up proved intriguing.
Miguel has trained diligently under tutelage of hall of fame trainer Freddie Roach since they paired up five years ago. The plan from the get go has always been to maximize Cotto’s boxing skills, and carefully steer him clear of brutal warfare that might jeopardize the timeline left on his career. Ringside Report handicapped Golovkin to edge Alvarez, so I envisioned the warrior within Miguel prepared to go out on his shield if necessary in one last vain attempt to turn back the clock usurping glory.
Instead of this media blessed clash of icons which could have easily accelerated into a round robin fans are left with a Main Event fit for prelim status. The preceding “Vinny’s View’s” article exposed the reasoning why team Cotto upon learning the Golovkin/Alvarez rematch slated for May 2 would no longer seek creditable competition. The WBO Light middleweight champion would now direct his attentions solely on welterweights and below. Danny Garcia, Jessie Vargas, and Mikey Garcia (140 lbs) all turned down the venue over weight restrictions or shallow ended money contracts. Even ancient Juan Manuel Marquez who hasn’t fought in three years turned it down before officially retiring in August.
Enter one Sadam Ali. A modest welterweight with decent skills who dares to dream big. The promotion behind this “event” has speculated why the boxers mentioned declined invitation to the dance yet strangely omitted all the top names in Miguel’s own division. Perverse logic bordering on blasphemy as they shill this wasn’t about going out on top. Left standing in the shadows prepared to give Miguel the farewell of a lifetime loom Jermell Charlo, Ersialndy Lara, Demetrius Andrade, Austin Trout and Liam Smith. Let the good times roll.
The Venue:
WBO light middleweight champion Miguel Cotto makes first defense of his title in his farewell bout against Sadam Ali. Scheduled for 12 rounds and hosted by Madison Square Garden in New York City on December 2, the bout will be hosted by HBO and promoted by Golden Boy Promotions. This will mark Miguel’s 24 appearance on the network. Live seating prices range from $50 to $500.
The stats:
Cotto stands 5’7” with an average wingspan of 67” while fighting out of the orthodox stance. His record is adorned with several hall of fame fighters boasting a 41-5, 33 KO’s ledger with a 72% KO ratio. The boxer of Puerto Rican heritage was born in Rhode Island and has had a tremendous fan base during the entire duration of his sixteen year career.
Sadam Ali owns a 2” height advantage standing 5”9” and has a commanding six inch reach over Cotto at 73”. Born in Brooklyn N.Y. he is also of from Puerto Rican nationality. Ali’s misleading record looks impressive at 25-1, 14 KO’s with a 54% KO ratio. The orthodox boxer has fought exclusively at welterweight. (147 lbs)
Previous Fight:
In August Cotto boxed and brawled when necessary against Yoshihiro Kamegai in a sometimes rousing 12 round affair for vacant WBO Jr middleweight title. Kamegai proved to be sturdier than predicted and able to absorb some heavy headed thunder in dropping unanimous decision in a nationally televised bout held in California.
The previous month Ali won a unanimous 10 round decision over Johan Perez in Arizona.
Styles:
Cotto has carried his vaunted left hook up from his intimidating Jr. Welterweight run as he gained fifteen pounds. At 36 years of age he has given his body sufficient rest in between key bouts. Since taking on Freddie Roach as a trainer at the Wild Card Gym he has focused on boxing and footwork to placate the remainder of his career. For an aging warrior Miguel has no trouble making weight and still shows plenty of spring left in his legs with no real signs of later round fatigue. He boxes smoothly using entire ring electing to pick his spots and moments of attack. Cotto owns a sturdy and dependable chin.
Ali is a talented 29 year old boxer who fights behind long jab making the most of his reach. Flat footed but nimble feet allow him going back on his heels as well as his customary come forward style. His key weapon is left hook of his jab, and doubling up on hook to body and head. His one flaw exposed in his only loss is a suspect chin.
Odds:
Vegas has yet to draw a line but Ringside Report favors Cotto as a solid 4 to 1.
What to look for fight night: Ali has height to spare in which to gain seven pounds on his thin frame. He will look to utilize his jab and carry the rounds in hopes of keeping Cotto at bay from entering the pocket. He keeps his right hand glued to his chin in defensive posture throughout every round but can be countered by right hands when his left is timed in overuse.
Cotto will box patiently behind adequate defense looking to broach the pocket and muscling his way inside the gates and looking to drop left hooks to the body and right hands to the chin.
With both men highly motivated with two opposite agendas each will try to test the other making a statement. Cotto will look to cap off a glorious career and focus on wearing his man down seeking a stoppage. Ali who is in search of his first significant win on world stage will look to establish his jab and control the tempo of bout. At some juncture early in the fight he will be forced to trade with the champion over possession of real estate. Once Cotto forces Ali into retreat mode the canvas will appear smaller in a hurry.
The Vinny Factor:
Two factors will dictate the outcome of this fight. First the differential in experience is overwhelming favoring the champion. He has faced an army of contenders and champions while the challenger has failed his only test by TKO at the hands of limited Jessie Vargas who stopped him in nine rounds last year. His impressive ledger boasting 25 wins bellies the fact Ali isn’t nearly ready for any of the top welterweights where he’s resided for nine years, nor is his chin ready to do battle with superior punchers.
Secondly there is an old boxing adage that the great trainer Angelo Dundee used to quote often. “Never hook with a hooker.” While the left hand is Ali’s best weapon Cotto throws his with more power speed, and leverage.
Prediction.
Cotto by stoppage. No surprises here; no Rocky Balboa comebacks or theatrics.
Stay Tuned…
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