Vinny’s Views: Jaime Munguia Vs Liam Smith: The Facts, The Stats and The Fight Prediction Is In!

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By Vinny “Glory Days” Lucci

True boxing aficionados never have to be meteorologists to truly understand when a wicked storm is brewing. Juxtaposed casual fans may not know all the names but HBO is throwing a firestorm down the gauntlet that no one should miss. If you hadn’t caught his audition on the world stage this past May where he separated world champion Sadam Ali from gravity as well his senses than ladies and gentleman may I present Jaime Munguia…

The Event:

On July 21, Golden Boy Promotions along with Queensberry Promotions and Frank Warren present Jaime Munguia defending his newly won WBO super middleweight title against former champion Liam Smith. The Hard Rock Hotel and Casino in Las Vegas will host event and be televised by HBO.

The Stats:

The champion stands an even 6’ but appears taller when posing at press conferences. He boasts an unblemished record of 29-0, 25 KO’s. The Mexican champion fights from orthodox stance and hails from Tijuana Mexico. Munguia is 21 years of age and in his fifth year as a pro. He is trained by his father Jaime Sr. and Noe Alaverez.

The challenger Smith stands 5’9½ “and also possesses a boxer’s lankier physique. He hails from Liverpool, Merseyside, United Kingdom. The orthodox fighter is 29 years old and quite possibly already peaked having turned pro a decade ago. His ledger reads a highly respectable 26-1-1, 14 KO’s.

Of special note, neither man officially lists their reach. If I may speculate here based on studying fights against opponents whose reach is listed, Liam’s wingspan is estimated at 70” while Jaime is more likely 74”.

Both combatants have ventured out of their backyards only once while prospering in building impressive resumes but with dramatically different results. Smith has been a product of the United Kingdom vanquishing names you never heard of unless you live on his side of the pond. His one foray into United States ended with disastrous results when he was knocked out in nine rounds against Canelo Alvarez in Texas two years ago. Munguia made a stop over from his native Mexico last May and went home a king after destroying Sadam Ali in spectacular fashion upon his coronation.

Last Fight:

The champion was begging to step into the void in undisputed middleweight champion Gennady Golovkin’s schedule and fill in for suspended Canelo Alvarez. The WBC turned their nose up at his offer and instead supplemented Vanes Martirosyan who was two years removed from his last ring entrance with predictable results. Jaime electrified the boxing world when given the chance at 154 pound title dropping Sadam Ali two times in first round, and once in the second. Throughout the bout he had the champion backing up or stumbling on his heels. After the third round referee Gary Rosado wanted to keep Ali on his stool and end matters but was talked out of it by the champion’ s corner. Rosado called in ring doctor and asked him to make the call. The bout continued in the fourth when Munguia quickly landed a left hook that dropped Ali for the last time as ref quickly called a halt to fight without administering a ten count.

Liam was working off a rematch with Liam Williams in which he won first fight by TKO. The bout ended by ninth round stoppage when Williams sustained double lacerations of right eyelid from unverified combination. At time of stoppage Williams was ahead on all scorecards by one point. The rematch saw Smith uncharacteristically box more at a slower pace and capture a majority decision. Needless to say both fans and sports writers were split on verdict as to which Liam deserved the win. Of note, Williams asked for the rubber match at post fight conference.

Smith said if he won WBO title he would oblige the request.

Styles:

The champion is a stand up puncher with very under-rated boxing skills. (Think John “the Beast” Mugabi) Munguia sets a wicked pace of come forward mayhem while never actually exerting himself, fighting comfortably cutting off the ring and firing both head and body shots with equal aplomb. His shoulder and slight head faints are missed by untrained eye because of the devastation of blunt force trauma he delivers within his power shots. What makes him truly a force to be reckoned with is surprising stealth ability to deliver his best shots from inside the pocket in phone booth warfare. For a tall, long armed boxer he delivers amazing torque when unleashing missiles with a genesis from his hips only inches away from his adversary. His whiskers seem impervious to pain at this stage in his career perhaps due to level of competition thus far and his self- imposed belief he is indestructible.

The challenger owns a similar style to Canelo Alvarez although he fights out of a different body type. A come forward puncher who boxes for position to unleash his best power shots to body setting up the head for KO. Having feasted his entire career on United Kingdom based opponents he was able to walk down his foes looking sensational until he actually stepped in ring with Canelo. Having no apologies to make there, one has to wonder though how much that fight took out of him as he hasn’t looked as sharp in last two years.

What to look for fight night:

In his last fight Liam Smith decided to box behind a steady jab and use entire ring instead of cutting it off. Post-fight he was boastful that he showed the world his versatility against Liam Williams leaving one to wonder if he will again try to implore such tactics once again or try to become assassin and catch the untested Munguia cold.

Conversely, the champion won’t have the dilemma of which fight plan to initiate as he will be on a single minded mission of an apex predator stalking his prey and keeping him back on his heels rather than on balls of feet. Smith is a flat footed stalker and does not employ much lateral movement. Munguia is surprisingly both nimble and quick for a power puncher with under rated footwork. His range finders will quickly turn into a vicious body assault the first time Smith covers up both sides of his head in defensive posture. Make no mistake about it, even if it happens in first thirty seconds that’s when fight will be either won or lost. If Smith doesn’t fire back launching his best grenades getting Munguia’s respect the fight could end quicker than the Sadam fight.

The Vinny Factor:

Failure should be celebrated for its lessons; for if you don’t learn from your mistakes you are doomed to repeat them. Here in Smith feasted on a “B” level resume and failed miserably trying to take on one of the best fighters in the world in Canelo Alvarez. Like Sadam Ali before him, you have to admire some fighters for taking the bouts they know they can’t win. Nothing on Smith’s resume says he is ready to once again step up his game and reclaim the throne except the inexperience of the present king which he isn’t likely to exploit lacking enough fire power to do so.

dd to the mix that in his last fight Jaime comfortably made weight with room to spare but will probably enter ring at middleweight with a superior reach advantage to offset everything Smith’s corner has planned in advance.

Odds:

As of this press release Las Vegas has yet to post odds on this title bout as financing to save event came in late. Ringside Report estimates the fight goes off at -1500 for Munguia, +850 for Smith.

Prediction:

Munguia stops Smith by knockout within eight rounds.

Post-fight after thoughts:

How about seeing this cat in a round robin with Jermell Charlo, Jarrett Hurd, Kell Brook, and Erislandy Lara?

Stay tuned…

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