Vinny’s Views: Sergey Kovalev Vs Elieder Alvarez – The Stats, The Facts & The Fight Prediction Is In!
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By Vinny “Glory Day’s” Lucci
Some celebrated boxers of pure heart and mettle seem to forge their destinies in stone long before the media and fanatic fan worshipers can transcend them into mythic beings. Once the aura of invincibility is shattered with a variable loss as all boxers encounter, the rebuilding process is always hindered with an indelible stain opposite the win column. Removing the mysterious cloak of insuperability and then the world is exposed to what a fighter is truly made of. Resiliency and fortitude become tantamount to the telegenic appeal that gave rise to the notion the champion in question had a God given impunity to losing. Case in point, enter one Sergey Kovalev; a modern day light heavyweight Russian king that wields anvils for fists and was in the long arduous process of building a legacy fit enough for the Ezzard Charles-Archie Moore era removing every obstacle place before him.
Several contenders of note lined up in sequence and marched into ring in cadence as the alphabets gave their blessings to watch them all fall like toy soldiers. Public demand brought about dream match of pairing the “Krusher” with then current pound for pound best Andre Ward. Both did their part and showed up to win. Unfortunately for history Andre Bocelli, Stevie Wonder and Jose’ Feliciano could have demonstrated a better use of score cards then the three blind mice who actually officiated the bout. As predicted, only Ward fans were satisfied so a rematch was signed. In that debacle, it was referee Tony Weeks turn to let sanity run amok as he failed to warn Ward for low blows, let alone deduct points. How bad were they for the misinformed that never caught the Barnum & Bailey Act? Ward didn’t just stray low of the belt line; he dug leather so deep fans felt it through thru their flat screens!
What’s the point you might be wondering as I strayed from topic? Here’s a Ringside Report caveat: Don’t be fooled into thinking Kovalev is damaged goods or any less the apex predator of his division.
The Event:
Kathy Duva of Main Events in association with Krusher Promotions present WBO light heavyweight champion Sergey Kovalev making second title defense against Elieder “The Storm” Alvarez at the Hard Rock Hotel and Casino in Atlantic City, New Jersey on Saturday, August 4 with bout to be televised on HBO.
Of note, CEO and one of the original founders of Main Events are closing in celebrating an illustrious forty years in boxing promotion. Baptizing the first boxing match at new venue she hopes to bring back the glory days of the eighties and nineties in Atlantic City showcases.
The original defense was to be against Marcus Browne who was recently arrested for domestic violence and for now had to surrender his title shot opportunity. Fans lucked out on this one as the highly avoided Alvarez was ready, willing, and eager to sigh on the dotted line. The “substitute” this time didn’t save a calendar date like Vanes Martirosyan did in May against Middleweight champion Gennady Golovkin, but instead raised the bar of must see T.V.
The Stats:
Champion Sergey Kovalev is comfortably settling into his second title reign after taking out Vyacheslav Shambranskyy in two brutal rounds for vacant title and turning back the challenge of Igor Mikhalki in classic form without missing a beat from pre-Ward days where he had made eight successful defenses. Going into this match Sergey is an impressive 11-2, 9 KO’s in title defenses. Standing an even 6’ with a 72” wingspan his complete ledger reads an imposing 32-2-1, 28 KO’s. More noteworthy is the fact that most defenses had three belts on the line. Fighting from orthodox stance the Russian originally hailed from Kopeysk, Soviet Union and carries heavy handed power in both fists. Not quite the same shotgun type power wielded by Michael Spinks and Bob Foster but scary none the less. At 35 years of age Sergey still appears to be in his prime.
The challenger Alvarez has had a storied rise to power as he has for years been the WBC mandatory contender for Adonis Stevenson who readily paid him step aside money in order to pad his record and bank account. The man who calls himself “Superman” is called “Chickenson” by Kovalev and “Chickenshit” by this reporter. His real name is actually Stevenson Adonis and his long tenure on throne will forever be marred by his refusal to unify with Kovalev or agree to meet his mandatory. Regardless of the outcome of Kovalev-Alvarez, nothing could be sweeter karma than the WBC keeping Elieder aloft of mandatory slot.
Known as the “Storm” Alvarez also stands an even 6’ with an outstanding reach of 75 ½”. The Columbian who hailed from Apartdo, Columbia and now resides in Montreal Canada boasts an undefeated record of 23-0, 11 KO’s. Elieder fights out of orthodox stance and is 34 years of age.
Last Fight: The champion tuned back the challenge of Mikhalkin by TKO in seven this past March at Madison Square Garden in New York City showing no signs of age or eroding skills and power.
On June 3 of last year Alvarez won a Majority decision over power punching former champion Jean Pascal at the Bell Centre, Quebec City, Canada. Alvarez retained his WBC ‘Silver” (Bullshit) light heavyweight title. If you are curious what the “Silver” stands for, it’s a reference to the lining in which the WBC lines their pockets with sanctioning fees.
Common Opponent:
Kovalev twice defeated Pascal by stoppage, TKO 8, 3/2015 and RTD 7, 1/2016. Kovalev defeated Isaac Chilemba by UD 7/2016. Alvarez secured a MD against Chilemba on 11/2015.
Styles:
The champion fights behind a long jab in stalker’s fashion as he walks his adversary down picking his spots and initiating exchanges. Once inside the pocket he creates the proper angles to unleash his arsenal and can be a brutal body puncher. His granite chin passed all ring warfare tests in his first fight with Pascal where he was tagged several times with hellacious monster shots and never wavered. Keep in mind his stoppage loss was due to Ward trying to send Kovalev’s cup up to his mouth guard. His angular body allows him to glide easily about the ring for a heavy handed puncher.
The challenger is a stand up boxer with a lethal right cross. He carries his guard low about his chest but offers a hint of a shoulder roll while keeping his right mitt near his chin. He is a pure stalker but possesses nimble feet and can bounce forward or retreat on balls of his feet. When he settles down on his punches he can be careless and square up inside the pocket. His most effective combination after throwing a classic one/two is then releasing a sneaky fast booming right hand behind it punching through his target at closer range.
What to look for fight night: It very well could turn into a crap shoot reminiscent of Hagler/Hearns but don’t count on it. Kovalev has under rated boxing skills as well as better balance in exchanges. If a knockout should present itself it will be predicated on distance and timing. To maximize that advantage inside the pocket both combatants must remember the shortest distance between two points is a straight line. Alvarez has a tendency to land his best power shots at the tail end of their arch removing some of the steam with too much extension on leverage.
When he throws left hook leads followed by right cross he leaves himself wide open up the middle and often neglects going to the body becoming exclusively a head hunter. The champion will utilize the entire ring looking sublime on defense as well as surgical inside the gate.
Vinny Factor:
While Alvarez has truly earned this title shot with wins over fighters like Edison Miranda, Lucien Bute, Jean Pascal and Isaac Chilemba it was only Bute who suffered a stoppage most likely due to his being a natural super middleweight. The KO percentage between challenger and champion is indicative as to which boxer is the more explosive puncher as well as calibrating the results between common opponents. With similar styles and footwork both boxers will look to establish a rhythm while forcing their dominance into the pocket. One key element here is the positioning of Alvarez’s guard with the tendency to lead with his chin. Besides offering Kovalev’s jab a target he will be surrendering his 3 ½” reach advantage.
Add to the mix that Kovalev works at a higher punch output and that Alvarez will be shedding a year of ring rust makes the Vegas odds seem justified. Behind the scenes new trainer Abor Tursunpulatov who replaced John David Jackson last year has somehow captured Kovy’s respect in the gym and getting him motivated about training again especially when working the pads.
Odds:
Vegas has installed Sergey Kovalev at -445 / Alvarez has been listed at +300
Fight significance
“A”
Prediction:
If Kovalev doesn’t get careless his chin should see him through a competitive battle and win by decision.
Co-Feature to main event also to be televised and not to be missed showcases Dmitry Bivol 13-0, 11 KO’s Vs Isaac Chilemba 25-5-2, 10 KO’s.
Odds: Bivol -1000 / Chilemba +1600. An impressive win here by stoppage could propel Bivol into an early title shot. An upset by Chilemba guarantees he re-enters the title picture also.
Stay tuned…
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