Vinny’s Views: Gennady Golovkin Vs Canelo Alvarez II: The Facts, The Stats and The SHOCKING Fight Prediction Is In!

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By Vinny “Glory Days” Lucci

Last year’s supposed “fight of the year” turned out to be an eagerly anticipated battle of icons that lingered on the boxing vine two years after maturation. Promoter Oscar De La Hoya who once had cojones of stone used to enter the ring engaging in fistic warfare with any boxer who could generate huge paydays and enhance his legacy but now has protected his golden goose better than the fairy tale it’s derived from. De La Hoya blew the media smoke rings insisting the mega match up needed time to promote when in actuality he was simply waiting the passage of time for Golovkin to pass his peak while his client was approaching his. Even though fans were teased with a proverbial “all Mexican” shoot out, a boxing reference to styles where the pocket is engaged until final bell or ten counts it never happened. Only Mexican who showed up on September 16, 2017 came by way of Karaganda, Kazakh.

Alvarez who has a world of talent to match his power has been known to be unable to stop fighters who boxed and used their feet as supplemental skills where he normally beheaded anyone flat footed as him. Shane Mosley, Austin Trout, Erislandy Lara, Miguel Cotto, Floyd Mayweather, JR. and Julio Cesar Chavez, JR. all heard the judge’s score cards read aloud while Kermit Cintron, Alfredo Angelo, James Kirkland and Liam Smith were bowling pins for Canelo’s wrecking ball hooks and crosses producing career high lite knockouts.

On fight night Alvarez became a fleet footed wonder who refused to engage the pocket as promised and cautiously countered punched in one/two combinations. Now it can be said only a fool would take unnecessary punishment but Alvarez grabbed the HBO microphones once too often exclaiming to Max Kellerman in his native tongue with Latin Machismo exclaiming, “I invited “GGG” into ring because as we say in Mexico, we don’t fuck around!” On fight night that wasn’t the case. While it appeared Canelo was a shade faster than Golovkin and could match up well in power shots he gave away many rounds allowing Golovkin to come forward dictating the pace and action while he uncharacteristically avoided the pocket like it was tainted with anthrax.

Making matters worse highly inept Judge Adelaide Byrd gave new meaning to the word “incompetent” when she inexplicably scored the bout 118-110 in favor of Alvarez adding speculation that Stevie Wonder could have done a better job. Luckily for Judge Don Trella, Byrd’s abysmal night’s work took president over his ridiculous draw rendered of 114-114. This was not a hard fight to score. “GGG” landed 219 punches to Alvarez’s 169. Golovkin was the aggressor throughout having thrown 703 punches to 505 for the challenger. Judges aren’t required to do the punch count, just assess the more effective boxer in each round. The Canelo camp can whine from now until doomsday about better accuracy but he was out punched throughout the fight and that’s the bottom line.

The Stats:

To review prefight and post-fight stats and coverage archive Ringside Report’s “Vinny’s Views,” for July 19, 2017, and September 17, 2017.

The Event:

On September 15, Golden Boy Promotions will once again promote the rematch at T-Mobil Arena in Las Vegas, with event to be televised on HBO, PPV. Normally when you pair two top five pound for pounders against each other who just happen to be the two most popular boxers in the game one would assume it’s a can’t miss promotion. Last year the world anticipated Hagler-Hearns but I warned readers here; beware. The behind the scenes nefariousness of this bout is politics as usual and once again, buyer beware. Originally slated for May 5, but in February and March Alvarez failed 2 drug tests coming up dirty for “Clenbuterol,” a performance enhancing drug.

The Nevada State Athletic Commission held a hearing where their intention was a year’s suspension. Alvarez was ordered to either appear or take telephone conference. At that time, he pleaded guilty, albeit by lame excuse of eating tainted beef in Mexico. This was not the first time he came up dirty, nor the first time he offered up the excuse. The commission cut suspension in half so six month ban did little more than prevent a tune up. Media types and fans on east coast have asked me for months what my take on the steroid finding is and I tell them “When did you ever know of a liquid millionaire who would take a chance eating tainted meat?” Alvarez could order fresh cut steer flown in daily from Texas so I’m not buying Mexican beef nor his excuse.

If you think this has been amusing thus far Canelo has also offered this quote on first encounter and its sequel. “This is my first fight that was officially at 160 pound limit so I had to adapt. But now I’m more sure and confident about what I can do in this rematch.” HBO has never been shy in exposing the fact that Alvarez has entered ring no less than 170 pounds for years severely outweighing his 154 pound counter parts at the time. The network also exposed the fact that he has it stipulated in contract not to expose his ring entrance weight. Canelo refuses to fight for WBC Belt or pay their sanctioning fees because they expect him to fight their number one contenders as well as weigh in on fight day.

Just three weeks to go before opening bell the drums are beating again but it’s not the echo of Marvin Hagler Vs John Mugabi resonating in the air but rather will the fans be screwed once again. With Oscar De La Hoya in control of promotion it feels like de’ja’ veux all over again; same bat time, same bat channel. Gennady has already been screwed a second time forced to receive 5% less than Alvarez even though he is the champion. Talking among writers the optimism of a fair decision should it go to score cards is null and void.

The Odds:

Rarely do odds fluctuate as often as they have here. While it’s not uncommon for Vegas to adjust the line you’d have to go back to Ray Leonard vs. Tommy Hearns to recall a match adjusting monthly. Usually it’s only late money days before a fight can tilt odds last minute. The bout opened up on Vegas boards with Golovkin a favorite at -175, to Alvarez +145. Odds have been adjusted two more times and settled this week at Golovkin -160, to Alvarez +130. Inquiries to bettors find fans thinking that last bout was an official draw so they want to bet the better odds. It is quite possible that this match up goes off as “pick-em” come fight night.

The Vinny Factor:

Last time around Golovkin’s trainer Abel Sanchez registered a complaint of supposed illegal form of hand wraps after the fight. Exactly what he was referring to was never made public but assumption was extra use of tape, not loaded gloves. Nothing came of it but rest assured it will be under the microscope this time around.

Thinking outside the ring one has to ponder if all the distractions have affected Canelo and will the May 5 tune up against Vanes Martiroysan help Gennady? Most importantly both camps think “they” won. Jose “Chepo” Reynoso and Brother Eddy did an outstanding job of converting the flat footed Alvarez into a fleet footed boxer to avoid as much punishment as possible and no doubt surprised Abel and Gennady on fight night. Question is, do they keep to their game plans or make necessary adjustments. First off, Gennady never went to the body. In twelve rounds he uncharacteristically went down stair less than ten times. Secondly Canelo wanted extra credit for daft “Mayweatheresque” defense but refused to engage the pocket offensively for more than a well-placed one/two making the same mistake Daniel Jacobs made in his title challenge of Golovkin two year ago. For judges to decide more clearly who has taken control of each round they both will have to fight smarter, and perhaps harder.

Prediction:

This is a bad karma bout between two evenly matched warriors. Many insiders I have talked to feel if it goes to a decision again that “GGG” will get the shaft regardless of whether he won or not. First time around Ringside Report handicapped Gennady to win by decision. If not for terrible scoring in the bout there wouldn’t even be a need for rematch. Based on the perception that Gennady controlled the bout and won eight rounds while eating the best bombs Canelo threw he has fewer gaps to fulfill convincing the judges’ closure than the challenger does.

Both camps have promised a knockout this time around and leaving the scorecards incomplete. Either way, may the best man win but I highly recommend you keep your money in your pocket.

Lastly the undercard is loaded with fan friendly warriors who will entertain both the live gate and HBO viewers with non-stop combat. Sensational co-feature has WBO Jr. Middleweight champion Jamie Munguia 30-0, 25 KO’s defending his belt against Brandon Cook, 20-1, 13 KO’s. Power punching David Lemieux 39 -4, 33 KO’s takes on Spike O’Sullivan 28-2, 20 KO’s in a middleweight brawl. The PPV broadcast opens with the return of once rated pound for pound king Roman “Choclatito” Gonzalez, 46-2, 38 KO’s taking on Moises Fuentes, 25-5-1, 14 KO’s in a crossroads match.

Stay tuned…

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