Vinny’s Views: Errol Spence, JR Vs Mikey Garcia: The Stats, The Facts & The RSR Fight Prediction Is In!
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By Vinny “Glory Days” Lucci
There is an undeniable axiom concerning the simple pecking order in the accession of life’s hierarchy. No one appreciates when someone cuts in front of you and then proceeds to the head of the line; not at the bakery, bank, gas station, movies, the work place, and especially when our heroes collide. There is an overabundance of unbelted ranked fighters and a plethora of fringe contenders who fight the crossroad matches to position themselves for a crack at one of the title belts to allow for gate crashers. As recently as this past June the alphabet carnival known as the IBF unhooked the velvet rope and ushered one Carlos Ocampo to the front of their welterweight line to challenge their champion.
At the time of his unfettered ascendance the three rival boxing organizations, WBC, WBA and WBO all failed to acknowledge Campos in their top fifteen welterweight rankings. If you’re counting that’s 45 spots where this “contender” failed to impress his way into a ranking and lived up to “my” expectations by being blown out in one round.
In a strange alternate preponderance of logic both media and fans cave in to common sense when one interloper happens to be an established champion with a huge fan base. This past July Mikey Garcia has been calling out Errol Spence, JR. since unifying his WBC lightweight title with Robert Easter, JR.’s IBF belt. Already an established icon with four title belts and unbeaten record Garcia’s legacy is firmly in place making his desire to leap frog two divisions and challenge not just for a 147 lbs. belt holder, but “the” man in the division quite a bewildering career move putting both his unblemished record and health directly in the line of fire. Breaking protocol Ringside Report is jumping on the bandwagon and bypassing several promising matchups on the horizon to handicap this event to keep current in mainstream of boxing gossip and debates.
The Event:
Premier Boxing Champions and Fox network will present this intriguing matchup of unbeaten champions and AT&T Stadium in Arlington Texas will host the third title defense of Errol Spence, JR. accepting the challenge from Lightweight champion Mikey Garcia on March 16, 2019. Fox will break the ice making this their very first PPV extravaganza after joining forces with Premier Boxing Champions with an onslaught of future joint promotions already penciled in.
The Stats:
Errol Spence, JR. is billed as “The Truth” but has attained the status of “the” man in the welterweight division since dethroning Kell Brook in May 2017. The champion stands 5’ 9 ½” tall with a 72” reach and fights from southpaw stance. Errol owns a tidy record of 24-0, 21 KO’s and is still a few years away from peaking and has an impressive playing field in which to sharpen his claws. Of note possibly more than any other division there are four separate dichotomies where rated contenders rarely step outside the organization that ranks them to venture into unknown waters to challenge for welterweight supremacy. Spence, JR. was born in Long Island, New York and now resides in Desoto Texas with six pro years under his belt. He will be two weeks past his 29th birthday when he enters ring fight night.
Mikey Garcia is a four division champion needing no introduction the world over. The unified lightweight champion (WBC/IBF) is an American boxer of Mexican heritage who was born in Ventura California and now calls Moreno California home. The 30 year old challenger stands 5’6” with an adverse reach of 68” and fights out of the orthodox stance. Garcia turned pro twelve years ago including a two year self-imposed hiatus between 2014 -2016 compiling a stellar ledger of 39-0, 30 KO’s. His title belt collection includes Featherweight, Super Featherweight, Lightweight and Super Lightweight.
Last Fight:
On June 16 Spence, JR. made his second defense of his title against mandatory challenger Carlos Ocampo at the Ford Center at the Star, Frisco Texas stopping his opponent at 2:59 mark of first round. Spence, JR. walked his man down cutting down his reach advantage then ripped three shots to the body (left, right, left) depositing his antagonistic challenger to his knees for the ten count.
On July 28 Garcia squared off with then undefeated counterpart Robert Easter, JR. in a lightweight unification match at the Staples Center, Los Angeles California taking a UD victory. Mikey had to overcome a five inch height differential as well as a half foot in reach. Boxing pundits speculated that Easter, JR. also wielded the edge in power, but Mikey turned in a workman like performance dropping his adversary in third round and winning by scores of 116-111, 117-110, and 118-109. Mikey first played matador in ring center circling his taller foe than cut ring down to size and eventually landed 32% of his punches.
Styles:
The champion is an all-around complete boxer with no flaws to expose. He walks his adversary down behind a heavy handed southpaw jab looking to invade the pocket where he unleashes a brutal body attack from both sides of gate forcing his opponents to bring their elbows down for rib protection thus exposing the chin. All the while he seems to cruise forward at his own speed always dictating the pace of bout and rarely expending more energy than needed. While his resume is sparse of household names his war with Kell brook (KO 11, due to broken orbital bone) and stoppage of Lamont Peterson (RTD 7) proved he looms larger as the welterweight king than the rest of pack. Terence Crawford and Keith Thurman may disagree but any combination of fights in the New Year is a win/win for boxing. Spence, JR. is a flat footed stalker but is more athletic with better lateral movement than expected.
I’ve said it before if Garcia ever needed a nickname the “Iceman” would surely fit to perfection. His ringside demeanor is reminiscent of the great Alexis Arguello where the boxer reeks of class and is beyond trash talking a potential foe yet once he is aloft on canvass he turns to expressionless stone on a singular mission to walk his man down defusing the situation and methodically picking his foes apart round by round. He has extraordinary balance and patience to match as his radar singles in on exposing mental lapses in opponent’s defense. From there he continually makes the adjustments needed to make his punches count.
What to look for fight night:
Believe your eyes as the reported height differential of 3 ½” will oddly look like more. Mickey face to face in a standoff with Errol is a fascinating sight to behold. Top of his forehead lines up with Spence, JR.’s eye sockets but there simply is no comparison in shoulder drop off of 6” and least we not forget Mikey started boxing at 126 pounds. Now if you peek at a YouTube video of Mickey’s last fight you’ll notice he was void of muscle tone and thick about the middle and regardless of contracted weight of 147 lbs. Errol will rehydrate into a middleweight proving there simply is just no catching up. Keep in mind Garcia has not given his body any tune ups at welterweight to adjust to the necessary acclimation to compete against such an adversary as Spence, JR.
Come fight night Mikey will circle cautiously around the perimeter of ring like a curious shark circling prey and look to deflect the champion’s southpaw jab gaining insight into his boxing rhythm. Spence won’t throw caution to the wind but will look to test the challenger’s midsection as is his style, as soon his first jab lands. From there Mikey will be dealing with a much bigger, stronger man with longer reach and the extra adversity of southpaw stance. Finally Mikey does not turn his punches over nor does he have the same speed and snap he possessed just a year ago. His two successful forays into junior welterweight division against Adrien Broner and Sergey Lipinets Garcia lacked the heavy blunt force trauma in his punches to stop either opponent. You can’t help but draw the conclusions of a David and Goliath scenario minus the slingshot. The bout will unfold as every rational boxing mind can visualize. This will not be a Larry Holmes vs. Michael Spinks exploitation of an older fighter. Spence, JR. isn’t close to peaking.
The Vinny Factor:
If you archive this column from July 31st, you’ll see Ringside Report was first to warn Mickey that asking for this fight was superseding his own greatness and would be adding a needless loss on an undefeated hall of fame ledger. His highly respected camp consisting of Brother Robert Garcia and father Eduardo Garcia should know better than buck the fanatical odds and stay the course at Lightweight unifications. Without interviews some speculation isn’t journalism, only theories.
Gym rats have reported that Mikey walks around at 173 pounds before training for his last fight. Could it be at 30 years of age a matured Garcia is finding too much of his training is making weight and feels stronger in gym at elevated weight? More speculation across internet fan sites has doubters on both side of coin. Same say Garcia moving up is a convenient way to bypass public demand of him facing wunderkind Vasyl Lomachenko, and thus skipping over Gervonta Davis as well. Others heckle Spence for picking on a much smaller adversary when star luminaries lurk about in his own division.
Fight Significance:
B+. On paper this appears to play out to a foregone conclusion before first bell has rung, yet the star intrigue behind Garcia’s steady division ascension has the boxing community buzzing in spite of itself.
Odds:
Day after fight was announced Vegas opened at Spence, JR. – 400 with Garcia at +310. Ringside Report speculates the line will waver between smart money on Spence and late action popularity wages on Garcia.
Prediction:
Errol Spence, JR. by stoppage in seven rounds or less.
Aftermath:
If Mikey should capture lightning in a bottle he would overnight enter the pantheon of Gods reserved for the likes of Roberto Duran. If he hears the score cards read but fails to have his hand raised Spence, JR.’s stock will plummet as the only upside to a victory would be his bank account. In all probability both men will part ways with no need of a rematch and pick up where they left off prior to this distraction.
Stay tuned…
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