Vinny’s Views: Manny Pacquiao Vs Adrien Broner: The Facts, The Stats & The Ringside Report Fight Prediction Is In!

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By Vinny “Glory Days” Lucci

No matter how quickly the years eclipse it still amazes this reporter how both casual and hardcore fans can gravitate to a boxing event for all the wrong reasons. When the media tries to exploit a protected champion their fan base get vocal as if they were defending a family member. Same when it comes to justifying losses with ironic excuses. As the sport allows extreme toleration of candid flaws we often are left with fights that die on the vine or worse yet, rotten ones that come to fruition long past their expiration date.

Oddly enough, when a boxer’s fan base also contains a huge amount of hecklers you can count bet your bank account that some promoter will see the angles to dust off the calendar year and propose to promote it as if it were in public demand.

The fans are treated to the drama of characters instead of boxers and often charged PPV money for the privilege. Join a boxing website for fans and you’d be appalled at the hatred some fighters are embellished with and unable to defend against as promoters channel the negative waves into revenue.

Enter living legend Manny Pacquiao who has won titles in eight divisions including four of the original eight, and needs no introduction worldwide. His adversary is the boisterous Adrien Broner who himself has captured four belts of his own but has been kept aloft public opinion by doing his best fighting pre and post-fight matches.

The Event:

On January 19 Premier Boxing Champions will promote the newest member of the Al Haymon stable; Manny Pacquiao making the first defense of his WBA welterweight title against Adrien “The Problem” Broner. Regardless of Pacquiao’s advanced age or Broner’s “problem” usually being self-inflicted character flaws the fans are lining up in tandem on public forums handicapping with venom instead of facts and all the while driving up the live gate and Showtime PPV sales. Bout to be hosted at MGM Grand Garden Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada where neither boxer is in danger of losing to a home town advantage.

The Stats:

It’s not too often you look up anyone on Wikipedia and find several pages committed to one person, let alone enough information in data base to compile a history book. Manny Pacquiao has led a storied life as well as a Hall of Fame boxing career but for narrative space I’ll stick with topic at hand. The champion stands 5’ 5 ½”tall with a 67” wingspan. Fighting from southpaw stance the Philippine sensation has amassed a storied ledger of 60-7-2, 39 KO’s of which 2 losses were some of the most flagrant robberies of modern boxing era against Timothy Bradley and Jeff Horn. He will be entering his 24th year as a pro.

Adrien Broner is an entity unto himself having tried to emulate Floyd Mayweather, JR. and his meteoric rise to untold wealth and super stardom but hit more obstacles than he expected once he rose to the competitive realm of 147 pounders. The Cincinnati native stands one inch taller than the champion with a two inch reach advantage at 69”. Fighting from orthodox stance his shoulder roll defense has become too much of a comfort zone that has hindered a progressive offense and thus gives away many early rounds on most judge’s scorecards. His record of 33-3-1, 24 KO’s is considerable but he is clearly past his peak as his best years were below welterweight. Adrein turned pro a decade ago and at super featherweight possessed skills to behold.

Last Fight:

The champion turned back the hands of time and scored a seventh round stoppage of Lucas Matthysse this past July in Kuala Lapur, Malaysia. Matthysse who was an outstanding junior welterweight who won several titles was resurrecting his career at age 35 in the welterweight division and was thought to provide Pacquiao with a stern test. It was Manny’s first stoppage victory in nine years since stopping the great Miguel Cotto in twelfth round in 2009. The victory has left much speculation as to whether Manny looked sensational in victory defusing a good opponent thirsty to prove his previous bout loss to Jeff Horn on foreign soil was a blatant robbery or had Matthysse truly taken a step backwards in a division his body clearly wasn’t made to handle? Lucas retired directly after the bout.

The challenger is coming off a hotly disputed draw against contender Jessie Vargas last April at Barclays Center, Brooklyn New York. Vargas got off to a roaring start bringing the fight to Broner providing a high punch count of nonstop action while Adrein in typical fashion grunted through his one/twos and mugged for the crowd. Vargas ran out of steam last third of bout and had to settle for a MD. The score cards were 114-114 by two judges while the third had Broner ahead by 115-113. Ringside Report had Vargas ahead by two points. Broner was coming off a loss to sensational Mikey Garcia eight months previous by lopsided unanimous decision which was also hosted at Barclays.

Styles:

The champion is a wicked southpaw with vibrant imaginary combinations from windmill angles as he enters the pocket from either side of the gate and exits under his opponent’s counters stepping back laterally and leaning back out of harm’s way. To beat him a fighter must try to time those uncanny excursions or risk waging war in the trenches fighting a ghost’s shadow that is always at least one step ahead. Manny has mileage but still can fight at a pit bull pace three minutes out of every round.

The challenger’s style is best described as a cheap imitation of Floyd Mayweather, JR. as all comparisons and similarities dissipated years ago as Adrein lacked the drive, focus and work ethic to emulate the best of this era save for the shoulder roll. Time and again the welterweight division has proven to be a weight plateau where he fails to compete much less dominates.

That being said Broner somehow manages to stay just competitive enough to get both the media and fans intrigued by saying “if he only started sooner and let his hands go more often.” Adrien has a middleweight’s chest and huge shoulders which he uses for defense that protect a reliable chin. Most combinations are of the simplistic one/two variety.

What to look for fight night: First, adjust your volume by lowering it. Save your ears from the annoying unprofessional grunts Broner makes when he fires a combination. You might also want to ignore the proverbial ass kissing that Showtime does still treating the challenger as if he were a world event fighter. Once the first bell rings until the score cards are read Pacquiao will dominate the rounds with footwork, hand speed and volume punching. Broner may be secretly planning a Juan Manuel Marquez Hail Mary ending but like most he forgets that feat took eight years, four fights and 42 rounds to accomplish.

The Vinny Factor:

Sorry, this time around there is no intrigue, political agendas or secret weapons being plotted in training camps. In fact, hall of fame trainer Freddie Roach is back from a one fight hiatus to oversee the champ’s camp and head corner once again. Buboy Fernandez will do the pad work with chest protector allowing Manny to unleash his combinations with full authority. Manny was worried about Freddie’s health last time out and thought it best Fernandez took over. (Freddie is now 58 and showing telltale signs of long battle with Parkinson’s Disease.) The comfort factor in their camp should be back at optimum level.

Last time out Broner blamed his loses on trainer Mike Stafford who was replaced by Kevin Cunningham as lead trainer at Mike’s request. Broner raised his punch count of 125 out of 400 against Mikey Garcia to 194 out of 507 against Jessie Vargas where he was lucky to settle for a draw.

Broner has stated that “Pacquiao is very stoppable.” Obviously, he is in denial of Pacquiao’s Hall of Fame credentials where he bested much larger welterweights including Oscar De La Hoya, Shane Mosley, Joshua Clottey, Miguel Cotto, Ricky Hatton, Jessie Vargas, Brandon Rios, and Antonio Margarito. Finally, Adrien gives up his 2” reach advantage and probably sacrifices another two by turtle shell defense while leaning backwards in his fighting posture.

Fight Significance:

“B-” It’s hard to argue a “C” when you have two marquee names headlining event but the challenger hasn’t looked terrific in years and has been gifted too many decisions as well as this opportunity.

Odds:

Vegas has Manny Pacquiao at -250 with Adrien Broner at +188

Prediction:

Pacquiao by UD. Broner has a proven durable chin and now sports a ludicrous 8” beard for some extra padding. He has never stopped a welterweight. At this juncture of his career Manny is remotivated and has stated he wants to continue fighting through 2020. Broner will not derail his journey.

Aftermath:

The rumor mill fueled by the press has Floyd Mayweather, JR. is coming back from retirement to fight the winner of this match in May. Should Broner pull off an upset it would match the old master against aging former protégé in a highly unlikely scenario. If the champion logs a successful title defense on his ledger against Broner there will be an immediate furor to finally get him and Floyd back on the world stage for a sequel almost as eagerly anticipated as the original mega fight in which Manny fought with injured shoulder losing by UD…

Stay tuned…

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