Vinny’s Views: Keith Thurman Vs Josesito Lopez – The Stats, The Facts & The Ringside Report Fight Prediction Is In!
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By Vinny “Glory Days” Lucci
Readers of Ringside Report know I shoot from the hip with honesty and clarity whether to define greatness, mediocrity or the occasional disfunctionality that corrodes our beloved sport. Often falling in-between the cracks is a tainted spectrum of grey in which every move put to paper or canvas has the validity of an acceptable excuse.
Yes, we do protect our heroes like brethren and often at our expense. When confronted with the physiological metaphor of “Is the glass of water half empty or half full, you are guaranteed the quantum of fans and media alike will be closely divided like a double edged sword.
Purists will see the glass as half empty with the pugilistic knowledge to site the utopian hierarchy of the best pound for pound fighters and the eras that set the standards. The casual fans that know round ball better and watch boxing only as an outlet to fill two hours on a Saturday night with buddies see the glass as half full. Without prejudice, the freedom of choice is yours.
The Event:
On January 26 Premiere Boxing Champions will host Keith Thurman’s return to ring defending his WBA Super welterweight title against one Josesito Lopez hosted at Barclay’s, Brooklyn New York and will be presented on FOX and FOX Deportes. Clarification of “return” as opposed to “comeback” can be equated to the glass is half full. Thurman did not lose a fight and remains undefeated and had not retired. The chosen opponent of Lopez conjures visions of that damn glass being half empty.
The Stats:
The champion at 30 years of age can be viewed as right on the water line also. Known as “One Time” the American boxer from Clearwater Florida boasts an unblemished record of 28-0, 22 KO’s. Fighting from the orthodox stance the champion stands at average welterweight height of 5’7 ½ ‘with an average wingspan of 69.” Having never faced a murders row of competition in his assent to the throne, and never suffered a brutal tug of war in order to claim any of his 28 victories it’s this reporter’s belief that Keith has plenty in the tank and his best is yet to come.
Of note this bout is viewed world over as a tune up and the champion has not foolishly proclaimed it as a serious mandatory. Keith is coming off elbow surgery where he had to relinquish his WBC welterweight title being unable to defend it in timely fashion. Extensive therapy to both elbow and badly bruised hand has the powers that be allowing him this “One Time” shot at redemption against an a proven “B” side adversary.
The challenger is known to his fans as the “Riverside Rocky” hailing from Riverside California and has proudly built a workman’s ledger of 36-7, 19 KO’S. Fighting from orthodox stance he holds a slight height advantage over Thurman standing 5’ 9” with a matching 69” wingspan. At 34 years of age it’s a safe assumption that anything less than a victory would almost guarantee this is his last dance for a welterweight title.
Last Fight:
Twenty months ago Thurman won a SD over rival champion Danny Garcia in a unification match held at Barclay’s Center, Brooklyn New York. In a fair decision Keith got off to a good start using his speed and boxing skills behind a range finder jab to establish distance and rhythm throwing in an occasional right hand bomb to keep Danny honest. In the last third of bout he refused to engage the pocket, boxing the perimeter of ring keeping flat footed Danny in constant pursuit.
The challenger last fought in April winning a ten round UD over previously undefeated Miguel Cruz who was 17-0, 11 KO’s entering the bout. Lopez used his fan pleasing, brawling style to crowd Cruz throughout the contest. This was an honest to goodness attention getting win.
Styles:
The champion is a come forward boxer who often brawls in spurts, giving himself just enough time to unload a four punch salvo and exit pocket. When he boxes behind a steady jab looking for places to unload his left hook he is damn good. When he remembers to switch it up and throw right hand behind it he is at his best. His chin is sturdy but there has been much speculation he can’t withstand a brutal body blow. Keith has shown a penchant for boxing when in doubt not leaving his opponents much room to play catch up in later rounds.
The challenger is a game brawler who will give the champion a work out if he can defuse the champion’s jab and enter the pocket. When he throws his punches with authority he neglects defense and leaves his whiskers available for a trimming.
What to look for fight night:
Keith knows full well that he is facing a highly motivated adversary who hopes to get lucky and impose his will inside the pocket and against the ropes envisioning making the most of this golden opportunity. The champion also knows the fans and media will not support him if he allows himself a second tune up fight while boasting he is still top gun at 147 pounds. Thurman needs to test the elbow and let his hands go stopping his challenger or be subject to ridicule.
The Vinny Factor:
Read between the lines here. Keith is walking a tight rope like Karl Wallenda only instead of navigating between two buildings he is over a giant metaphoric glass of water that’s half filled. If he wins, or wins big; he will hear the criticism of either “so what” or totally fool the casual fan of his unchallenged dominance. If he loses, it’s take the train home and get on the back of the line. My advice to one and all is just enjoy the bout for what it is and not judge Thurman’s career based on this result of this fight.
Fight Significance: “C”
While boxing fans and media have patiently awaited the return of Keith Thurman this title defense isn’t exactly what we hoped for. Albeit we understand he has the need to test the injured elbow before taking on the likes of IBF Champion Errol Spence Jr. but that’s what the gym is for. If the brain thrust behind Thurman’s corner truly wanted to announce Keith was once again looking to prove his superiority in division, they could have called on a more recognizable name like Lamont Peterson, Jessie Vargas or Jeff Horn to whet the appetites of diehard fans which would have raised the significance of title fight to a “B+”
Odds:
As of this writing a bored Las Vegas has failed to post odds. Look for Thurman at -300 to Lopez at +240 come fight week.
Prediction:
Thurman by S.O.S. (Stoppage or Decision) If the champion’s elbow is fully healed he should bring about a stoppage around the eighth round. If the elbow inflames with recurring injury he’ll box his way to a UD.
Aftermath:
The champion gets to add a win to his ledger and most likely a KO, making the illusion that his “One time” is back. Fact is at the championship level he simply isn’t destroying his adversaries but merely eking by. If he has any true ambition of getting into the ring with the likes of IBF champion Errol Spence, JR. or WBO champion Terence Crawford he must raise the bar for himself or his unblemished record won’t survive the New Year.
Stay tuned for year-end wrap…
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