Saul Alvarez: How Much Longer Will We Wait?
By Jeff Stoyanoff
It can’t be easy handling the career of a burgeoning super star in the world of boxing. There is so much money involved and, particularly in the dangerous world of boxing, any miscalculation can derail an entire career before it even gets off the ground. If a boxer steps up too quickly in competition and endures a horrific beating it can, and often does, exact a tremendous toll on both the body and psyche of a once promising fighter. We have all seen fighters who were never the same after enduring such losses: Fernando Vargas and Meldrick Taylor were high profile examples and men such as David Reid and Jeff Lacy would seem to fit the bill as well. Protecting a fighter is a major part of managing their careers. They can’t cash in if they are beaten down before they make it to the stardom required to fight for big money in the current world of boxing.
On the other hand, how does a fighter get better if they are not continually challenged? Moreover, what of the lessons learned from adversity even in victory and the career altering lessons that can be gleaned from a loss? Management can navigate a promising fighter to a big payday by carefully avoiding high risk situations, but what of that fighter’s chances of winning when he reaches the highest peaks of talent that the sport has to offer? If he hasn’t been severely tested before meeting the elite fighters of his time, that fighter is almost sure to be betrayed by the very path of lesser resistance that ensured the opportunity in the first place. Enter Saul Alvarez.
Alvarez, 35-0-1, 26 KO’s, is an outstanding young fighter. In addition, he is a virtual lock for mega stardom possessing the requisite blend of talent and a crowd pleasing, aggressive fight style that all but guarantees popularity among boxing fans. Alvarez is a valuable commodity and he is a decided favorite at this point to find his way into a mega fight eventually. Perhaps it will be with a Sergio Martinez down the road, or with Floyd Mayweather JR. if he returns, or perhaps it will be Miguel Cotto if the impossible happens and Top Rank and Golden Boy get together and make a big fight again. Or, the future mega fight might simply be with the man who distinguishes himself in the next year or two from among the amazingly deep and equally anonymous pool of talent at 154 pounds. It is hard to see which possible road may yet become hardened reality, but one thing seems almost certain, Alvarez will be there. The business side of Alvarez’ career is moving right along, but what of the boxing side; is Alvarez building toward a single huge payday? Or is he building towards a win on that fateful night and even more paydays to follow?
The last two opponents for Alvarez were excellent business moves, but one has to wonder if they represented great boxing moves. Lovemore Ndou and Carlos Baldomir are valuable commodities in their own right. They are capable fighters who can provide a test for any young prospect. However, while they can go rounds and make even a skilled fighter work through guile and acumen let’s not be foolish. They no longer realistically have the ability to beat a burgeoning superstar like Alvarez. With each man having been in over 60 fights in their outstanding careers, they are credible, but not dangerous. Add to it the cache of being former world champions along with their name recognition and they indeed become an invaluable resource……. for a fighter like Alvarez. They heighten his stature without threatening the money train; a knockout on the business end of things to be sure. But, do they allow Alvarez to grow? Do they present something that might yet be just as valuable to Alvarez on the boxing end as their names are to him on the business end? Specifically, will they make him face adversity? No chance.
Floyd Mayweather, Sergio Martinez, a soon to be crowned star at 154, each would represent a quantum leap in talent as an opponent for a promising fighter like Alvarez. Of course, he is not fighting any of them next, but surely those names represent an eventual target. The process of making those fights has already begun. Is Alvarez preparing to beat them? Or is he merely being groomed to face them? How much risk does one take with Alvarez? Prepare him to win and you might derail the fight. Keep him safe and move him into the fight and it’s not likely he can win when he gets there. That is the conundrum of handling a fighter in the era of potential 8 figure paydays in boxing.
The next opponent for Alvarez is Matthew Hatton, 41-4-2, 16 KO’s. Ricky Hatton’s little brother is not likely to challenge Alvarez either. Hatton is not only taking a huge step up in class for this fight, he is moving up in weight as well. Hatton is a game fighter but this is a tall order to say the least. This fight might be even less risky than Ndou and Baldomir were for Alvarez and that is saying something. In any event, this fight appears to be another strong nod toward the business plan for Alvarez. And, if it makes business sense then it probably doesn’t make a whole lot of boxing sense. In all likelihood, the Hatton fight will likely do little to improve Alvarez’ chances of beating the most talented fighters in the world; it’s a money move and the plan is pretty straightforward. Move Alvarez along, showcase his talents, allow him to look spectacular, and eventually cash in the unbeaten record and make the mega fight.
The problem is, Alvarez the fighter can’t possibly be ready without stepping it up. The business plan will have forsaken the fighter. Alvarez is good. I look forward to seeing him in there with the best. I just would like to see him have the best chance possible to win when he does step up. And that means, (gasp), he might need to risk losing. Saul Alvarez has to get better. Not because he is deficient in some way. But, rather because no matter the talent level he may possess his eventual opponents will be able to match him. Winning at that time will be about more than just talent; intangibles will enter the picture. Experience, preparation, self confidence, and other such variables will enter the fray. Safe fights don’t increase those variables.
Of course, Alvarez is only 20 years old. In a sport of often staggering numbers, that is a staggering statistic; 20! It borders on insanity. Surely, there is no reason to rush things with a fighter who is so young. But, how young is he really? Yes, there is the chronological age to consider, but boxers also age in another way. Specifically, fighters have an internal aging process that centers around how many rounds they can fight; how many punches they can take. Some fighters seem to be pretty fresh after 40 fights, while others appear to be sliding downhill in their 20th fight. It’s all about their ring age and that is no doubt mitigated by the style in which they fight. Is there any doubt that Pernell Whitaker would be destined for a longer career than Michael Katsidis? Naturally, there are exceptions to every rule (Julio Cesar Chavez anyone?), but the reality is that a fighter’s chronological age is hardly the end of the story. Alvarez is not exactly Pernell Whitaker in there. He is a high contact guy.
In addition, what is the point of waiting after 36 fights? Isn’t it time to find out what Alvarez can do against more dangerous opponents? Is he going to be more ready after three more fights against guys who simply can’t match his natural gifts in the ring? It is time for Alvarez to start preparing himself for his final destination in the sport. It is time for Alvarez to begin testing his limitations in the ring. Sadly, that stage of his career will likely be so short as to be almost passed over completely. In all likelihood, risk will be minimized so as to ensure the business aspect of prepping the newest superstar for the big money fight that surely awaits.
Here are some names: Kermit Cintron, Erlislandy Lara, Yuri Foreman, Alfred Angulo, Vanes Martirosyan, James Kirkland, Paul Williams, and Antonio Margarito. Let us set aside for the moment the issues surrounding injury and management conflicts and consider the possibilities. What fan wouldn’t want to see Alvarez in there with any name on that list? Of course, the fights would be competitive and thus would involve substantial risk for the careers of the fighters involved, or would it? If Alvarez went 4-1 (or even 3-2) against five fighters on that list, no sure thing by any stretch, would anyone lose interest in seeing him fight a pay per view king in the sport because he was now simply an exciting fighter who could compete with the best but has a loss or two? Clearly the answer is no. Alvarez is good and fun to watch. Time and again we see that entertaining fighters make their way into big fights, even if they have lost.
Moreover, would Alvarez be a better fighter after five such fights? The answer here would be yes, but with a slight caveat. Alvarez could be derailed by a particularly brutal loss. Or, it could turn out that his psyche couldn’t handle the questions he would be forced to face if he lost a feeling of invincibility that can accompany an unbeaten record. Who knows how someone will deal with the reality that they might not be the best? That someone out there might just be better? It is risky business…especially when the money involved is so long. Would you gamble with a valuable asset like the career of Saul Alvarez? And therein lay the problem. The math is off now. It is too much of a gamble. The sport has collectively realized that fans pay for records and personalities and knockouts. Competitive fights are merely a bonus. They can get the money without them, or at least without having to stage them regularly. Boxing has caught up with other sports; the money is huge.
The days of being forced to take risks have faded away. Alvarez is already a star headed for the money. It is not the worst trade off in the world. Fifty years ago Saul Alvarez might have been a better fighter. He would have been forced to run the gauntlet of several of the names I listed above before getting his shot and the adversity would have made him even stronger, even better. His record may not have been as pretty, but he would have maximized his gifts in the ring. Today, he will have to settle for maximizing his money if not his considerable skills. Fighters make more money now and that is as it should be. Yet, for the fans, and perhaps for the fighters themselves who would probably love to face other great fighters, there was a price to pay in doing the right thing and paying fighters what they deserve.