UFC 128: Mauricio Rua Vs Jon Jones Breakdown
Main Event:
Mauricio “Shogun” Rua (19-4-0, #1 Light Heavyweight) VS. Jon “Bones” Jones (12-1-0, #5 Light Heavyweight)
Believe it or not this is the hardest fight to predict on the whole card. Every time people think that Jon Jones is going to be tested he blows his opponent out of the water. Who else has stopped Brandon Vera, Vladimir Matyushenko, and Ryan Bader. No one. He absolutely drubbed those fighters with them offering little to no offense. I am going to say that he will be fighting his toughest opponent to date, but I have said that his last three fights and look how those turned out.
This bout probably has more outside circumstances affecting it that any other fight on the card too. Shogun is coming off a long layoff, and his third knee surgery. Shogun would probably have had the belt earlier and would have had a few defenses before this matchup if his knees weren’t messed up. He is still young but these injuries have shortened his career. It will be difficult to see these injuries not affecting him his first fight back. Look how they hurt his performances against Mark Coleman and Forrest Griffin to see this will be true. Then you also have to factor in the quick turn around period for Jon Jones. He will fight for his first major title with less than a month turn around. Given he took no bumps in that fight, but it is hard to be in constant fight mode for training. Sometimes that is where you get hurt the most.
This fight could be fought a lot of ways. Shogun will want to keep the fight standing as that is his best bet to a win. He has better technical standup than Jon, but that does not mean it will always win the fight. Jon has the longest reach in the UFC so Shogun will have to contest with that, but Jon also brings a unique skill set to the fight in that you do not know what weapon he has come up with. The ground game is a big what if. Jon has been able to take all his opponents down at will regardless of there skill set. There is no doubt in my mind that he will be able to get Shogun down, but what happens when he does. Shogun on the ground always reminds me of the Griffin fight which was not a pretty sight. This fight is still up in the air for me, but the injuries of Shogun worry me the most out of anything.
The Bottom Line: Shogun at 100 percent wins this fight, but I don’t believe he is. The ring rust alone can change the tide of this fight. Look for Jon to take the title from him with a third round TKO, but these two will meet again once Shogun gets his fighting legs back.
Co-Main Event:
Urijah “The California Kid” Faber (24-4-0 #10 Bantamweight) vs. Eddie Wineland (18-6-0, #9 Bantamweight)
Eddie is a good fighter, but he is not on the level of Urijah Faber. If you look at his record his toughest competition has been Antonio Banuelos and beyond that he has beat a lot of decent opponents. His striking could give Urijah fits if he leaves it there, but he won’t. Urijah is a smart fighter and won’t leave it there. Urijah has some of the best wrestling in the Bantamweight division and some of the best Jiu-Jitsu also. Unless he gets over confident, like the first Mike Brown fight, I don’t see him being stopped. If Jose Aldo could not do it then Eddie Wineland is not going to stop Uriah.
The Bottom Line: Urijah is finally at a weight class that suits his body. If you don’t want to take his last fight as proof then he will define it here with another first round submission.
Jim Miller (19-2-0, #4 Lightweight) VS. Kamal “Prince of Persia” Shalorus (7-0-0-2)
The fighter who earned a split decision over Bart Palaszewski cannot show up to fight Jim Miller. If that same fighter shows up he will lose. Jim Miller has only been bested by two of the top fighters in his division, and Kamal is relatively untested by the top of the lightweight ladder. He had a fight with former champion Jaime Varner and would have won if he had not struck Jaime with illegal groin shots.
There is no secret to how Jim fights. He puts people on there ass and tries to submit them. I would not question what belt he has in BJJ because he can submit high level ground fighters with ease look to his last fight for that fact. He also is competent on the feet having dropped high level strikers the likes of Duane Ludwig. He is comfortable everywhere, and has the ability to stop any fighter anywhere. He is right up there in the mix of top contenders for the Lightweight belt, but a loss here would set him back.
Kamal has good wrestling having gone to the Olympic trials; he has also competed in the ADCC grappling competitions. There is a difference between competing and winning. Kamal won neither so there would not be much of a shock if Jim has the advantage in those places. Kamal does hold the advantage standing though. I could not tell you who is a better technical striker but statistics don’t lie. Kamal has had four win by knockout out of his seven. With odds like that it shows he has more power compared to Jim’s two TKO’s out of 19 wins.
The Bottom Line: Jim is the better fighter, but Kamal’s wrestling may be enough to hold out until the end of the fight. Jim by dominating, yet unsatisfying unanimous decision win.
Nate “The Great” Marquardt (30-10-2, #4 Middleweight) VS. Dan Miller (13-4-0-1)
These fighters have common opponents with mixed results. They both fought Demian Maia where Nate knocked him out, but Dan was beaten by decision. They both fought Chael and both were controlled by him to a loss. They fought that fight very similarly. They both were repeatedly taken down by Chael while attempting submissions. These fights did prove something to me though. Nate has better standup because he has more power in his punches and his striking is more dynamic, while Dan has the better ground game. Wrestling is a big question mark though. Dan has better Ji-jitsu game where he uses it more often. That is not to say that Nate does not have good BJJ he just has not shown it in his recent fights. Nate will most likely be hunting for the knockout while keeping it on the feet while Dan tries to get it to the ground for the submission game.
The Bottom Line: I am going to take an upset in this fight. I have not liked Nate’s last few performances and if that is what is to come he will lose. Dan has the best attitude in almost all of the UFC. He will literally fight anyone anytime. That is why he survived three straight losses, and will get the biggest win of his career here with a split decision victory.
Mirko “Cro Cop” Filipovic (27-8-2-1) VS. Brendan “The Hybrid” Schaub (7-1-0)
Mirko has been playing this song and dance for a while…the same song and dance that Tito Ortiz has perfected. Before every fight he professes to have that old fire that made him a champion while saying he is injury free. Then after he loses the fight, he says that he was hurt with some ailment. I really hope that Mirko is 100 percent because he was something to watch. As with the case with the Pat Barry fight people are going to say he is taking on the new version of him in Brendan Schaub. There is one positive in the Mirko knows Brendan Schaub can be knocked out; he can thank Roy Nelson for that.
Brendan has slowly been making his way up the Heavyweight ladder with three consecutive wins. Each step has been over tougher competition, and he now faces what will be his biggest test. With a good performance in this fight he could see himself in contention soon. The problem is what his greatest asset so far in his career could not be anymore. His striking is not on the level of JDS, who dominated Mirko, nor is it on the level of Alistair Overeem. Those are the only two people to give Mirko fits in the standup in his past few years. Brendan may have to do some on the job training in this fight.
If this fight is contested on the feet then Brendan may run into problems. it is hard when you win one way for so long. You think your skill set is really high level, but then you can run into another fighter who totally blows you away. Mirko may not be the fighter he once was, but his striking is still some of the best. If Brendan wants to test waters there he may end up knocked out. His best bet would be the ground game, but Mirko has a notoriously good takedown defense. This fight will be interesting because I believe it will test Brendan’s heart more than his skills.
The Bottom Line: 9 times out of 10 if Brendan trades with Mirko he goes to sleep. He was overconfident in his hands in the Roy Nelson fight and look where that got him. He also does not have the best power in the world either not being able to finish Gabriel Gonzaga. So, I’ll take Mirko by second round TKO.
The UnderCard:
(Spike TV) Luiz “Banha” Cane (10-3-0-1) VS. Eilot “The Fire” Marshall (10-2-0)
Eilot should not have been dropped from the UFC after his loss to Vladimir, but it is the best thing that could happen to him. You see a lot young fighters who get into the UFC, have a few losses, and then are never heard from again. Eilot has the talent to be someone in the UFC, and his exile, after a boring fight, only strengthened his desire. He took this fight on short notice, but that will not change anything. Eilot is the type of fighter that stays in shape year around and should have no problem with the time of prep.
Luiz Cane is coming off a ten month lay off and two knockout losses in a row, the first of his career. Going into the Lil’ Nog fight he had only one loss, a DQ, and was riding a 3 fight win streak over decent opponents. Then came the hands of Lil’ Nog and Cyrille Diabate which put his lights out twice in under five minutes. Usually it is hard to determine how a fighter will come back after his first knockout loss but to have two in a row is even worse.
This fight will most likely be contested on the feet even though both competitors have a BJJ black belt. Luiz has 9 on his ten wins by TKO and that should show you how much dust is on his belt. Eilot is more likely to use his as he has five wins by submission. He also has the stronger wrestling which should be able to let him take it to the ground if he pleases.
The Bottom Line: I will take Eilot by split decision. The more I am looking at this the more I believe he will loss, but Luiz will be too tentative after two knockout losses in a row.
(Spike TV) Edson Mendes Barboza Jr. (7-0-0) VS. Anthony Njokuani (13-4-0-1)
This fight will not even be close. The last time that Anthony fought someone near the level of striking of Edson he was stopped 90 seconds into the bought. That was when he fought Maciej Jewtuszko. Now he fights Edson Barboza who probably has some of the best striking in the lightweight division. When you are 7-0 in MMA with six TKO, two of which are by leg kicks, and a former kickboxer who was 25-3 with 22, 17 in the first round, knockouts, then you are someone that you don’t mess with on the feet.
Edson has a black belt in Muay Thai. Let’s just say he is scary, and unless Anthony has the ability to put him on his ass then he will end up on his back. This is why this fight is on the Spike broadcast even though some of the other more deserving fighters aren’t because this one will end early.
The Bottom Line: This fight does not get very far into the first round as Anthony has decent standup, but not near the level of Edson. Edson by first round KO.
(Facebook) Ricardo “Cachorrao” Almedia (13-4-0) VS. Mike “Quicksand” Pyle(20-7-1)
Mike Pyle is getting more credit than he deserves. Yes, he beat John Hathaway convincingly, but who is John. He was not ranked in the top ten, and his biggest fight before Mike was Diego Sanchez. That was a good win, but Diego was just coming back from his stint at 155 and was not the same fighter that we are used to seeing at 170. Look to his fights with Martin Kampmann and Paulo Thiago to see the Diego we are used to. Plus, John is only 23 and is still a growing fighter. Pyle on the other hand is 35 with recent losses to Brock Larson and Jake Ellenberger which proves he is not the upper echelon of fighter.
Ricardo Almedia is going to prove this to be a fact. Ricardo is 5-2 since coming back from a four year hiatus. His only losses in that span are to Matt Hughes and Patrick Cote. The loss to Cote came more from size than skill. He was not big enough for 185 since coming back to fighting and that fight proved it. The loss to Hughes is nothing to worry about since even if Hughes is past his prime he is still a dangerous fighter. Plus, he got rocked by Hughes’ hands; that was something no one expected.
I don’t expect either of these fighters to really be looking to stand up. Pyle likes the ground which was evident in his last fight the way he won by controlling the ground game. Ricardo is a very dangerous submission fighter and can catch anyone. Ricardo was testing his hand before the Hughes fight, but he did not really show like he was after that loss. Look for this fight to be contested on the ground, and with Ricardo having the superior grappling look for him to finish it there.
The Bottom Line: Four of Mike’s seven losses are by submission and look for Ricardo to give him his fifth in the second round.
(Facebook) Kurt “Batman” Pellegrino (16-5-0) VS. Gleison TIbau (21-7-0)
kurt should be able to win this fight, but it will depend on how well his ACl id healed. Many fighters when faced with an injury such as an ACL injury come back to quick. Look at Joe Lauzon’s loss to Sam Stout where he stated that he believes he came back to early from the injury as proof. Hopefully that is not the case here. Gleison also looks to get back on track after suffering a loss to top contender Jim Miller.
Both of these fighters are very good on the ground; both of them posses BJJ black belts. The difference in the fight will be the wrestling. Wrestling has always been a weakness for both fighters and a reason they have lost a lot of their fights. When they are able to be controlled on the ground they loss, or when they cannot get a fight to the ground. Look at Gleison’s loss to Melvin Guillard or Kurt’s to Joe Stevenson. Kurt’s wrestling is superior so he should have the ability to keep this fight on the feet and use his superior striking to beat Gleison.
The Bottom Line: Look for Gleison to be competitive early, but in the third round he will tire. Kurt will take it down and submit him.
Joseph Benavidez (13-2-0 #2 Bantamweight) VS. Ian “The Barn Owl” Loveland (14-7-0)
Joseph Benavidez is a good fighter, but he just has that one other fighter that can beat him. He has two losses in his career and both are to Dominick Cruz. This is a bad thing because Dominick is the champion, and with two losses he is not getting anywhere near a title shot unless it changes hands. Ian is a good fighter, but he is not on the level on Joseph. Joseph submits BJJ black belts with ease and has the wrestling to dictate where the fight takes place. Ian while possessing standup that would give most fighters trouble the problem remains what can a good standup fighter do when he is on his back eating elbows? The answer is nothing. A good determinate for this fight is both fighters fight with Wagnney Fabiano. Wagnney is a good BJJ black belt and was able to be submit Ian while Joseph submitted Wagnney. This shows you what should happen in this fight.
The Bottom Line: Unless Joseph gets reckless in the standup you should see a first round submission win for him.
Raphael Assuncao (16-3-0) VS. Erik “New Breed” Koch (11-1-0)
Here is the problem when you fight outside the biggest organizations in the world people start to hype you. This is the case with Raphael. He was 12-1 and fans of MMA started to talk that he could beat a lot of people at the top of the featherweight division. At the time the WEC was the place that held most of those fighters. Well, once he joined he has had an abysmal record going 3-2 in the organization. It is not bad considering he lost to two fighters at the top, in Uriah Faber and Diego Nunes, but to be the best you got to beat the best. He now has a chance to prove himself in his first fight in the UFC, and prove all his fans right that named him the heir to the Featherweight throne.
Standing in his way is Erik Koch. He is a fighter that at 22 years of age has the sky as his limit. He has one loss on his record to Chad Mendes, a Uriah Faber disciple, but he was just out-wrestled in the fight not truly beaten. He had a number one contenders fight with Josh Grispi before he was pulled to fight Jose Aldo. Form there he beat newcomer Francisco Rivera in about 90 seconds, and he will need to be impressive in this fight if he wants his name mentioned in the title picture soon.
Erik came into the WEC on a 8-0 career record which contained 6 submissions. He will need that in his fight against Raphael since he is a high level BJJ black belt. Raphael himself relies on his ground game to win because out of his 16 wins he has 8 submissions and 5 decisions where in he used his ground game to win. He is not invulnerable on the ground as Uriah Faber was able to submit him there. Erik is also adding a better standup game to his arsenal which we saw in his last fight; He won by head kick and punches. He is getting this ground game from Duke Roufus the man who gave Anthony Pettis the legs to jump off a cage. That is not to say the Raphael does not have knockout power because he does it is just not as refined as Erik’s which sometimes does not matter.
The Bottom Line: Erik has the ability to last on the ground, and the ability to win on the feet. I don’t see him finishing Raphael, but he should take a unanimous decision win.
Nick “The Jersey Devil” Catone (8-2-0) VS. Constantinos Phillippou (7-1-0)
It is weird that the first fight on the card mirrors the main event; one competitor is coming off a year long layoff, and the other is having a quick turn around. Constantinos fought on the fourth of last month, out side the UFC, and got the call to replace Nick’s opponent, Dan Miller, after he got called to the main card. Nick, himself, has not fought in over a year suffering injuries before planned bouts with John Salter and Tomas Drawl.
Nick likes to use his back ground of strong wrestling and BJJ skills to beat opponents. The only problem is when he gets outclassed in those areas, which was seen in his losses to Tim Credeur and Mark Munoz. In both bouts his opponents were better at his strengths than him.
Constantinos could make it 2-0 for late replacements from the Serra-Long team if he is able to beat Catone. Something he very well could do. He could take advantage of the long layoff, and he will be the bigger fighter than Nick since the fight is going to be contested at 195 catchweight. Constantinos is the bigger fighter; he has fought at 205, and Nick has contemplated a drop down to 170. Constantinos has a good standup game, and I doubt he has a weak wrestling game if he trains with Chris Weidman.
The Bottom Line: The same way facts played into the Weidman/Sakara fight the same will play here. Look for Catone to take the first round, but for Constantinos to fight back and stop Catone in the third round by TKO.