Antonio Rogerio Nogueira Vs Phil Davis: UFC Showdown
By Ben Bieker
Antonio Rogerio “Minotoro” Nogueira (19-4-0, #9 Light Heavyweight) vs. Phil “Mr. Wonderful” Davis (8-0-0)
Antonio has been shown to have weakness against strong wrestlers. Whether it is his fight against Ryan Bader or Jason Brilz he has shown an inability to defend the takedown. Hopefully, he will have worked on that if he plans to beat Phil Davis. Phil is a very strong wrestler. Now and days there are many former D-1 wrestlers in the UFC, but it is the way that Phil takes people down that is amazing to watch. His takedowns are much more fluid than Jason’s are.
In this fight Antonio will want to keep it standing. It is not that Phil has bad standing, but Antonio definitely has better standup and knockout power. He wobbled Ryan Bader, has knocked out a few people in his career, and has won a bronze medal for boxing in the Pan-Am games. For Phil he will want to control the ground game. It is doubtful that he will be able to submit, or stop Antonio on the ground because he is a highly skilled BJJ fighter and is very durable.
The Bottom Line: As much as I think Phil Davis can beat Lil’ Nog I think it may be too early in his career to face someone of this caliber. Look for Phil to give Antonio trouble, but Lil’ Nog will come back to submit Davis in the third round.
Co-Main Event:
Dan “The Hardy” Hardy (23-8-0) vs. Anthony “Rumble” Johnson (8-3-0)
Sometime fights just make sense. Both fighters posses knockout power, but I believe that Anthony Johnson. Many fans and journalist alike will try to call me crazy, but it is the truth. In 23 wins Dan only has 11 knockouts, and in 8 wins Anthony has 6 knockouts. Simple math cannot prove this fact alone; look at the fights for further proof. In Dan’s UFC career, he has only knocked out one person and that was Rory Markham, and that was over two years ago. Rory is also notorious for having a weak chin since all six of his losses come by way of knockout. I will say that Dan’s striking is probably a little cleaner and technical, but in a battle of who can hit harder Anthony will win.
Dan played this game with Carlos Condit, and that fight did not go his way. Carlos was not known for his striking prowess, but anyone that knew him knew that he had the power. Now that Dan is going up against a known power striker he will have a distinct disadvantage. He needs to not rely on his striking because if he cannot catch Anthony eventually Anthony will catch him. The part Dan needs to take advantage of is Anthony’s weakness on the ground and his long lay off. Anthony has sat out all of 2010. He also cuts a tremendous amount of weight so that could play into Dan’s advantage.
The Bottom Line: Dan needs to use his ground game to sap the energy from Anthony Johnson. The problem is he will not do this and rely on his standup. THis will cost him the fight as he gets caught late in the second for a TKO stoppage.
Amir Sandollah (4-2-0) vs. DeMarques Johnson (12-8-0)
The loser of this fight deserves to be cut. Both of these fighters made it to the finals of an Ultimate Fighter and earned their way into the UFC. From there their careers have been very lack luster. DeMarques has looked decent in his fights, but he has been shown to be outclassed on the ground and on the feet. The same goes for Amir who has been beaten in both areas too. This fighter will show who has the desire to be the best fighter more than the other who should be cut. I don’t think this fight should have been on the main card more than some of the fights on the undercard. Call me bitter but this fight will be fun to watch, but I like fights that have implications to the division.
The Bottom Line: Look for Amir to control the standup and be able to defend the takedown. He does not have the power to stop DeMarques, but he will be able to outlast him en route to a unanimous decision win.
Jung ”The Korean Zombie” Chang-Sung (10-3-0) vs. Leonard “Bad Boy” Garcia (15-6-0-1)
Anyone that is a fan of MMA knows that Chang and Leonard have fought before. There fight in 2010 was the equivalent of the Bonnar/Griffin fight for lighter weight fighters. Chang will be looking for redemption in this fight for almost all of Leonard’s opponents. Leonard is known for being gifted decisions. In his last 6 fights he has had 5 fights end in split decision. I do not know if that is a record of some kind, but it shows how close his fights are. The problem comes from his style it is so break neck fast and wild that judges score for him because he is so active. In reality, he lands very few punches, and in his last fight with Chang; Chang landed a lot more consistently than Leonard.
The positive for Leonard going into this fight is that Chang was knocked out in his last bought. That loss shook Chang’s faith in his chin. He is called the Korean Zombie because in his career he has taken tons of damage while keeping moving forward. This loss changed his style and he has vowed to fight smarter. This may make him unwilling to engage with Leonard which would cause Leonard to look even more aggressive. If Chang is smart he will use his ground game as his submission game is a lot stronger that Leonard’s.
The Bottom Line: This could go a lot of ways, but I think it will go to decision again. I know that Chang promised to change his style, but he won’t. Look for him to play it smart in the first, but to get drug into a war by the second. This time Chang will get the decision win though.
The Undercard:
Aaron “A-Train” Simpson (7-2-0) vs. Mario Miranda (10-2-0)
Aaron and Mario are both coming off the worst stretch of fights in their life. Aaron has lost two in a row while Mario has gone 1-2 in his last three fights. For both fighters they have gained their first losses recently, and a loss here would be most likely a cut from the UFC. Aaron started his career late having started fighting at the age of 32. He is now 36 and i think the years of sports have caught up to him. Younger fighters have bested him the last two times out, and I think it will happen here again. Look for these two to exchange early and often until Mario catches him.
The Bottom Line: Mario by TKO late in the first.
John “The Hitman” Hathaway (14-1-0) vs. Kris “Savage” McCray (5-2-0)
I do not think this fight is even close. There is nothing that Kris can bring to the table that John has not seen. Being in the cage with the likes of Rick Story, Paul Taylor, Diego Sanchez, and Mike Pyle shows the type of caliber of opponent he is used to fighting. He did lose to Mike, but his career is still young since he is only 23. Plus, John is a big Welterweight because he absolutely dwarfed Diego when they were in the ring together. John’s one weakness is his wrestling, but Kris does not have a high enough caliber to control john on the ground. John can scramble and easily evade him when it reaches the ground. John wins this fight and gets back on track while Kris becomes one step closer to the unemployment line.
The Bottom Line: John by TKO in round 3.
Alex “Bruce Leroy” Carceres (4-2-0-1) vs. Mackens “Mack da Menace”(5-3-0)
Mackens shocked everyone when he submitted Wagnney Fabiano. Unfortunately, the rest of his career so far has been a let down. Losing three fights in a row, albeit to tough competition, is not something desirable in a Zuffa employee. Luckily he faces someone more his speed in this fight. This is the standard striker versus grappler match with mackens wanting the fight to hit the ground while Alex would like to keep it standing up.
Alex comes from Ultimate Fighter fame and finally makes his UFC debut after getting injured. I will say that Alex does have a decent BJJ game, but he will not be able to beat Mackens there. His best bet is to keep the fight standing so he can use his dynamic striking to break Mackens down. There is not too much else to this fight as both fighters are still new to fighting and a loss here calls into question their ability to compete in the UFC.
The Bottom Line: Alex has a decent ground game, but it is not on the level of Mackens. Mackens also showed himself to be competent on the feet in his fight with Cub Swanson. Look for the fighters to exchange early until someone takes it down. From there Mackens will tie up a submission sometime in the second round.
Sean “Big Sexy” McCorkle (10-1-0) vs. Christian Morecraft(6-1-0)
For an indication of how this fight will go look at the competitors individual fights against Stefan Struve. Sean proved to e a competent wrestler as he took Stefan down. From there he tried to submit him, but only got reversed and pounded on; he lost by TKO. Christian’s bout with Stefan went a lot differently even though he lost too. He almost beat Stefan in the first round. He took Stefan down in the first round and was able to unleash vicious ground and pound. it is evident that both fighters want this fight to hit the ground, but the question is who will be able to have control when the fight reaches their, as it most certainly will.
The Bottom Line: Sean bark is bigger than his bite and Christian will be able to prove that b gaining a TKO stoppage in the first round.
Mike Russow (13-1-0) vs. Jon Madsen (7-0-0)
This fight is the best one on the undercard. It should be on the main card more than a fight like Amir’s because of the implications it has on the division. The fighters at the top of the Heavyweight division in the UFC need some fresh blood. They are now lining up Brendan Schaub to be the next big thing, but I think that one of these fighters could be an even bigger challenge.
While fighters like Matt Mitrione and Brendan Schaub get a lot of attention from the Zuffa Brass Jon Madsen has, quietly, built up a four fight win streak in the UFC. He is only getting better too. His last fight against Gilbert Yvel showed that progression as he took him out in a minute fifty faster than even Junior Dos Santos could. On the other side you have Mike Russow who used his body to suck the stamina out of Todd Duffe until eh could catch him with a single punch that finished him. This fight will be a good determinate on who takes another step up the heavyweight ladder. Jon will get tested all around as Mike is hard to finish, and was a D-1 wrestler. So, he should technically have the better takedowns and defense of takedowns then mike should.
The Bottom Line: Mike is not a full time fighter, and even though he has been training a lot longer than Jon, Jon lives and breathes the MMA way of life. Mike won’t make it easy as Jon batters him on the way to a unanimous decision win.
Michael “Mayday” McDonald (11-1-0) vs. Edwin “El Feroz” Figueroa(7-0-0)
A fight between two essentially undefeated fighters. Michael does have a loss to Cole Escovedo, but he also has a win so they cancel each other out. I believe that Michael has the potential to be the next big thing at 145. At 20 years of age and having so many fights he could be the next Jose Aldo or Jon Jones if his career takes the right path.
The Bottom Line: I believe that he takes another step in the right direction here. he will have to go to decision, but he will be able to outlast Edwin in this fight.
Johny Hendricks (9-1-0) vs. Anthony “T.J.” Waldburger (13-5-0)
I think that Anthony does not stand much of a chance. He has always been beaten by people that are heavy hitters. Johny has power in his strikes, even if they are not the cleanest. Also, he has the wrestling to take the fight to the ground. He should be careful on the ground considering that is where Anthony’s real strength lies; He has ten submission wins in thirteen career wins.
Johny’s submission game has never really been tested because he can control people so well on the ground. He has never faced someone as good as Anthony on the ground too.
The Bottom Line: Johny is coming off a disappointing loss and will look to redeem himself. He will here as he TKO’s Anthony in the first due to ground and pound.
Nik “The Carnie” Lentz (20-3-2) vs. Waylon Lowe (10-3-0)
Nik Lentz has looked near unstoppable in his UFC career, but he has also looked extremely boring. Many people thought he did not do well in his last bout against Tyson Griffin, but he still won. That is why you see a fighter with a four fight win streak in the UFC on the first fight of the night. Nik now goes up against a fighter who should be able to match his wrestling. Hopefully, their strength will cancel each other out and then it will turn into a fire fight on the feet. Nik was a better wrestler then Waylon, but sometimes that does not matter when it comes to MMA.
The Bottom Line: If Waylon can keep it on the feet he will win. His striking is more fluid than Nik’s, and I think that Waylon will take a unanimous decision win.