Georges St. Pierre Vs Jake Shields: UFC 129 Showdown
By Ben Bieker
Georges “Rush” St. Pierre (21-2-0, #1 Welterweight) VS. Jake Shields (26-4-1, #5 Welterweight)
I do not want GSP to lose, but I want the division to be interesting. That is not the reason I am picking Jake to win, but I think he will. People profess GSP to have the best wrestling in the division, which he might, but let me ask you a question. Could GSP outwrestle Dan Henderson at 185? I don’t know, but I do know Jake can. Jake has never been submitted, and probably has better BJJ than GSP. You also have to look at it like Matt Serra. Some fighters are good BJJ practitioners, but they are not able to submit people. What they are able to do is not be submitted. That may be Jake’s way which is good since he does not have to be submitted.
When standing GSP can be a beast, yet he does not show it often. GSP was the second person to finish Matt Hughes in over 40 fights. GSP has the better standup, but it does not mean that Jake will get in trouble on the feet. Jake has fought good standup guys like Robbie Lawler, but he never had to contend on the feet when he took the fights to the ground. If that is not an option to get it to the ground then he will have to fight on the feet. He has to be able to because many people view Nick Diaz as having some of the best hands in the division; he is a close training partner of Jake.
This fight plays out long. With a combined 20 decision wins out of their last 26 wins these two fighters do not finish often. They do fight to finish it just does not come. In a long game people point to Jake’s cardio as an issue. He has never had an issue before his last fight, but that should be cleared up before this fight. If he losses due to cardio issues he does not respect the belt enough and should lose. That will not be the case though.
The Bottom Line: Jake Shields by a clear cut 3 rounds to 2 to become the new champion.
Co-Main Event:
Jose “Scarface” Aldo (18-1-0 #1 Featherweight) vs. Mark “The Machine” Hominick (20-8-0, #10 Featherweight)
Mark Hominick is a good striker, but the truth is that he is not as good as Jose Aldo. Look at the facts; Aldo has 12 knockouts in 18 wins, and Mark has 9 knockouts in 20 wins. That is the facts right there. That is not to say that Mark does not have a chance, because he does. It just shows that his mindset of being a better striker is not accurate. It is possible that mark does win the striking between the two fighters, but Jose has the ability to take the fight to the ground. Mark does not.
Mark has five of his right losses by submission, and Jose has a BJJ black belt meaning that spells doom on the floor for Mark. Obviously, for Jose, it would be smart to take the fight to the ground and not even test the feet. He could win on the feet, but why chance it? There is not point. I doubt Jose will take it to the ground though.
On the feet Mark needs to get in close in range and use his combinations. Jose is known for his big strikes. Whether they come from feet, kicks, or elbows he can knock you out with them. Mark cannot let that distance be created. He needs to make the fight close in space, and try to finish it there.
The Bottom Line: Mark will be able to contend with Jose, but he will eventually be caught. Look for a third round knockout due to flying knee.
Randy “The Natural” Couture (19-10-0) VS. Lyoto “The Dragon” Machida (16-2-0, #6 Light Heavyweight)
It is hard to say what a fighters mind is like when he comes back from a loss, especially a knockout. For their next fight to be a decision loss where they should the ability win can create two circumstances. One they come out guns blazing for the win, or one where they try to win at all cost. If Machida tries to win at all cost it will not work for him. Randy is the king of game plans, and if Machida does play it tentative he will lose.
For Machida to win, he will want to keep it standing. Even if his Ji-Jitsu is better than Randy’s it won’t come into play. Randy went to a tie with Jacare in a grappling tournament. I doubt he will get submitted. Machida needs to make Randy chase for the takedown, and keep him coming forward. In essence, he needs to be a counter striker. If Randy can get his hands on Machida it will be then end of Machida’s night.
The Bottom Line: If this truly is Randy’s last fight I can’t bet against him. Randy by split decision.
Benson “Smooth” Henderson (12-2-0, #10 Lightweight) VS. Mark Bocek (9-3-0)
Mark likes to profess his abilities by saying he is the top BJJ fighter in the 155 division. That is hard to say considering he got chocked out by Mac Danzig. His only other losses are to Frankie Edgar and Jim Miller, top fighters in the division. Ben has not fought top fighters in the UFC, but beat most of them in the WEC. A lot of people remember his most recent loss to Anthony Pettis for the kick, but he almost won that fight if it were not for the kick.
Mark’s fight is on the ground. I do not think he can finish Ben though. He will need to do a lot to accomplish what no one else has. Ben has the ability to finish a fight on the ground or on the feet. I think this comes down to being a complete fighter. Benson is the complete fighter and will cement himself as such with a convincing win here.
The Bottom Line: Can’t bet against a fighter with the same name as me, and Ben doesn’t need my bias as he takes a TKO in the third round.
Vladimir “The Janitor” Matyushenko (25-5-0) VS. Jason “The Hitman” Brilz (18-3-1)
Many pundits are counting out Vladimir. The reasons have to do with age, wear, or his actual ability. Have we not seen this many times with another 129 competitor in Randy Couture? Vladimir has been a consistent fighter for the past couple years, has not gotten too many injuries, and has only had a few losses. I, personally, thought it was the end of his career when he got blown out by Jon Jones. Two factors now changed my mind. Vladimir’s handling of the much younger Alexander in his last fight, and Jon Jones ascension to the 205 throne, where he demolished everyone in his path, changed my opinion. I think that Vladimir is still a competent opponent with quite a few fights left in the tank.
Jason surprised many people with his performance against perennial top-ranked Lil’ Nog. As there were changes in my opinion about Vladimir’s last loss there are also changes in my opinion about Jason’s last performance. Since that loss, which should have been a win, Lil’ nog has lost twice. In those losses it has been shown that he is outclassed by wrestlers relatively easy. Ryan Bader and Phil Davis used the game plan that Jason exposed to their favor. That shows me two things. First, that the performance is not as vaunted given that Nog lost two times afterward, and second, Jason does have better wrestling that Vladimir.
This fight will not come down to the ground game. I know that Jason can take Vladimir down, but he will not keep him their. He does not have the size or strength since Vladimir is so comfortable on the ground. The fight will be contested on the feet, or in the clinch. In those spots, Vladimir should hold the advantage. It is one of those things that come with experience. Vladimir will know when to get out of dangerous situations, and he will know when to push the pace. Jason may be younger, but the more than a year off will hurt his cardio. Look for Vladimir to finish once Jason tires.
The Bottom Line: Vladimir by third round TKO due to ground and pound.
The UnderCard:
(Spike TV) Nate Diaz (13-6-0) VS. Rory McDonald (10-1-0)
The Bottom Line: I will take Eilot by split decision. The more I am looking at this the more I believe he will lose, but Luiz will be too tentative after two knockout losses in a row.
(Spike TV) Sean Pierson (11-4-0) VS. Jake “The Juggernaut” Ellenberger (23-5-0)
When Brian Foster dropped out of the fight Sean’s chances of winning became slim. Jake may only be 26, but he is slowly becoming one of the hottest prospects in the Welterweight division. He has some of the gnarliest ground and pound in the division, and look at John Howard’s eye for proof. Given Sean exceeded expectations when he beat Matt Riddle, but for some reason Matt choose not to use his wrestling when in trouble.
Jake will do what it takes to win. He may have been in trouble in the Carlos Rocha fight, but he pulled through to win it using his abilities that are better than his opponents. Jake may want to stand with an opponent but when he gets hurt or feels he is losing, he will take it down. Sean’s best chance is to grind out the first two rounds in hope that Jake’s cardio is not up to snuff, considering he took this fight on short notice.
The Bottom Line: Jake by second round TKO due to ground and pound.
(Facebook) Kyle Watson (13-6-1) VS. John “The Bull” Makdessi (8-0-0)
A classic striker versus grappler in this match. The problem for Kyle is he has been finished 3 times due to strikes, but John has never loss. This means that Kyle has no way of learning how to finish John except in the fight. This is a major disadvantage. I think John has dealt with fighter with a better wrestling pedigree than Kyle and that will show.
The Bottom Line: John my unanimous decision by dominating the standup.
(Facebook)
Pablo “The Scarecrow” Garza (10-1-0) VS. Yves “Tiger” Jabouin (15-6-0)
The loss to Zhang Tie Quan has spurred Pablo to become an even better fighter. Yves on the other hand has meandered in being a decent fight, but not a great fighter. Pablo on the other hand has started to progress his game. He just finished his first fight by a real knockout. He has made his intent known about wanting to be a real threat to the
The Bottom Line: Pablo by third round submission after dropping Yves.
(Facebook) Ivan “Pride of El Salvador” Menjivar (21-8-0) VS. Charlie Valencia (12-6-0)
Both of these fighters just lost to top fighters in their last fights. Ivan may be 1-3 in his last four fights, but he is also coming off a four year layoff in which he is 1-1 since coming back. The crazy thing is that Ivan is only 28, and is already a ten year veteran of the sport. He has the ability to be a top fighter in the 135 or 125 division. He may have been beat in his last fight, but he will prove it here.
The Bottom Line: Ivan has the ability to finish this fight, but he is still getting his fighting legs back under him. Look for him to dominate on his way to an unanimous decision win.
(Facebook) Claude “The Prince” Patrick (13-1-0) VS. Daniel “Ninja” Roberts (12-1-0)
A lot of people look to Daniel as a potential new prospect, but then they count of Claude as being a real threat. Even though Claude has only had two fights in the UFC he ah faced, and beaten, better competition. He also has the submission game to not get caught on the ground, but also better standup. His only loss was to Drew McFedries. In that fight he did not get knocked out which is crazy. Claude will take Daniel hype viscously in this fight.
The Bottom Line: Claude will win this by TKO in the second round.
(Facebook) Jason “The Athlete” MacDonald (24-14-0) VS. Ryan Jensen (15-7-0)
Jason has ridden his career off a couple of decent wins when he first entered the UFC. Now, his record is abysmal at best. Ryan has traded wins for losses throughout his whole UFC career. He is now, coming off a loss. That means he will most likely win; considering if he losses he will be booted out of the organization. Jason is coming off a loss and multiple injuries, and he has not fought in about a year. I think Ryan has the advantage in this fight whether it hits the mat or stays on the feet. One positive for Jason is his size which he will have to use if he wins. He will need to grind out a win by holding Ryan on the ground, or up against the cage. Ryan was giving Court McGee all he could handle until he gassed out. If Jason is able to pin him it may be over come the third round.
The Bottom Line: Ryan wins this. I do not think he can finish Jason, but the fight will end in his favor.