Vinny’s Views: The Rest of the Boxing Schedule for 2016 & Bold Prediction for the Winner Between Keith Thurman & Danny Garcia!

By Vinny “Glory Days” Lucci

OK fans with coffee cup in hand I tackle one of the hottest debates on the horizon. (My Publisher “Bad” Brad has threatened if I turn in another column when I’m watering my gullet with Grey Goose laced with Café’ Patron that he’ll sign my checks in crayon, so I better get this straight!) While the boxing world is bracing itself for the most significant fight of the year this weekend between Andre Ward and Sergey Kovalev I am compelled to move forward and cover new ground. Just around the bend there are also some good scraps if not great ones about to unfold. Billy Joe Saunders is due to defend his WBO middleweight strap against Artur Akavov. (Love the challenger’s name even “Bad” Brad has to double check it) on November 26th.

Anthony Joshua defends his IBF Heavyweight crown against late but highly game substitute Eric Molina on December 10th, and Bernard Hopkins bids a fond farewell match against rugged Joe Smith, JR. on December 17th. Keep a look out for my in-depth analysis and breakdown of each event, but tonight I cannot resist leap frogging over the pack to the highly anticipated welterweight unification match between Keith “One Time” Thurman and Danny “Swift” Garcia on March 4th.

Danny just came off a nice tune up bout against useful Samuel Vargas with a seventh round TKO. While I may have been a bit critical of Garcia recently, I applaud his team not seeking to get this bout sanctioned, but still contracted to get some ring work in. No disrespect to game Vargas but getting erased by Errol Spence, JR. last year in four rounds made this bout too easy to handicap. With that being said, it’s never a popularity contest. “The Greatest” Muhammad Ali could make that work for himself, but for the rest of the world it’s “mano a mano.”

Background check. Danny has perhaps one of the worst nicknames in boxing. A flat footed fighter who needs several rounds to warm up simply doesn’t conjure up visions of “Swift,” but that’s just my humble opinion. He can call himself whatever he likes without speculation should he come out of this unification victorious. Not to blow smoke, but as Keith has raised the bar on competition he hasn’t really shown the “One Time” knock out tag that he built his career on either. Follow? Good, there will be a mini quiz at the end of article. Garcia stands 5’8 and a half inches tall. Thurman who appears taller especially nose to nose in promoting this bout is listed at 5’7 and a half inches. Don’t you love when stat keepers add that extra half inch like it’s going to make someone taller?

Keith has a reach of 69 inches, fights form the orthodox stance and is unbeaten with a record of 28-0, 22 KO’s. Danny’s reach lists at 68 inches, fights orthodox also and has a more decorated resume of 33-0, 28 KO’s.

While Thurman has matured, and prospered on useful opponents he hasn’t quite bitten into the higher echelon of contenders quite yet. Bonafide victories over trail horses like Jesus Soto Karass, Luis Collazo, and Leonard Bundu have made Keith a force to watch, but only former champs Robert Guerrero and Shawn Porter stand out as true tests both having heard the final bell.

Garcia owns a “who’s who” resume of victories over junior welterweight competition. Beyond inspiring it boasts a galaxy of star studded headliners. Kendall Holt, Amir Kahn, Erik Morales, Zab Judah, Lucas Matthysse, Lamont Peterson, Paulie Malignaggi, and Mauricio Herrera all fulfill a dossier of hall of fame potential. Add to the mix he too bested former welter champ Robert Guerrero for the vacant 147 pound title and fans are being treated a top notch affair.

The welterweight division has been anointed boxing’s most talent laded for several years, but the top names have simply failed to pair up inside the ring. While Manny Pacquiao just sent Jessie Vargas to the back of the line as expected, the 147 pound landscape is a rich cluster of talent, boasting titans Kell Brook, Tim Bradley, Errol Spence, JR. and Shawn Porter who join Pac, Keith and Danny. Least we not forget the imminent return of Floyd Mayweather, JR. and Juan Manuel Marquez in farewell outings, and the expected rise north from junior welterweight champion Terence Crawford and you can see the endless possibilities for promoters to engage enough fistic carnage to keep fans happy until the rapture.

What has been lost in translation hasn’t gotten past scribes or fans, and that is Garcia’s refusal to grant rematches to both Herrera and Peterson who clearly appeared to out box “Swift” and were robbed on the score cards. While Guerrero was a hot name a few years back, many question why he was allowed to jump ahead of the pack to be given another title shot? It could be worse, but I’m not going to throw a cold bucket of water now when this fight is truly heating up. The knock on Keith is he has the handicappers wondering if he can take a brutal body shot and if he can avoid one knowing Danny will make his waist a target?

Styles align up amicably for a fan friendly bout (location to be named later on by promoters) that early clock watchers predict an ending taken out of the judge’s hands. Danny has a tendency to start cold for three rounds and telegraphs the same combos in repeated fashion. His style dictates a phone booth war once he engages in the pocket or can cut the ring and corner on a foe. Keith fights tall and will use the entire ring as well as his reach to hold Danny at bay and pick his shots.

While both men can throw vicious flurries, it’s Garcia who forgets to tuck his chin and keep his guard up while firing his cannons. Keith often mixes in a jab amid his combos pushing a foe slightly out of reach before launching another volley of leather. Both combatants are highly adept at sliding out of pocket to a blind angle before recommitting to mayhem. At welterweight, Keith throws the higher volume of punches per round.

What to look for on fight night. Both champions will be in superb condition and mentally focused with career defining fight before them. Someone’s belt and undefeated record will pass into history that night. Both men are expected to easily make weight the day before as they are true welters and the media won’t be in a frenzy over the recent rehydration debacles that we have witnessed with several fighters like fan favorite Canelo Alvarez. Look for both champions to jockey for position in a quest of landing the first significant blow of evening while trying to avoid over thinking the tactic and not getting caught cold.

Keith will use a fast jab before and after every combo and will be seeking to test Danny’s whiskers early before he gravitates to the fight tempo as first few rounds unravel. Garcia will be committed to testing Thurman’s ribs, but it will be Keith who goes to body more often looking to set up his headshots. By round four, Danny will have no choice, but to go to war in an attempt to wear Keith down while winning rounds. His dad Angel will not be serving his son any justice by telling Danny that Keith is ready to be taken and go after him.

Mobility and defense at this level go to Thurman. While power is questionable as to if either holds an advantage over the other the equation breaks down two-fold. Who can land more and who take a better punch?

The outcome will be determined before the final bell barring either boxer breaking a hand or receiving a severe cut putting them on survival mode. By the eighth round, the fans will be treated to a glorious night of warfare amongst the welters best. At the end of the round, the momentum will swing to Keith’s favor as he will remember to box, move and avoid the counters better than his adversary.

Rounds nine and ten will show the effects of Danny’s sometimes foolish aggression as his face will show the swelling of being hit by the naturally larger man. No one can deny that Garcia is missing something for two years and it doesn’t seem to be coming back. Vargas was a glorified sparring session and hardly any barometer to gage his ability against a real 147 pound test. While writers and fans alike questioned why Danny wouldn’t give Herrera and Peterson rematches I wonder if Garcia was actually questioning himself?

His father in post-fight rants seemed terribly annoyed at the possibility of rematches and venturing back into deep waters where his son was clearly outhustled and outboxed. If a fight is won relatively easy, and fans want a sequel why not make the cash and kill two birds with one stone?

f this comes down to a mindset of wills, it will be Keith who puts the exclamation mark on the night stopping Garcia in the championship rounds by TKO after capturing the second half of fight.

The aftermath will have the loser’s corner screaming foul in anarchy while the newly doubled belted champion will stand in ring center calling out both WBO welterweight champion Manny Pacquiao for the prestige and monetary reward as well as the winner of IBF showdown between champion Kell Brook and number one contender Errol Spence, JR.

2017 looks to be a better year on paper then what went into the history books in 2016. Thank God for welterweights.

Stay tuned…

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