Florida Covid-19 Data Was Changed to Create “Artificial Decline” in Deaths During Surge

By Nikki Slusher

Apparently New York isn’t the only state who found ways to smudge around some of their covid-19 numbers. While the delta variant is spreading like a wildfire throughout Florida, the Center for Disease Control and Prevention has published data on the variant that suggests this can end up as the most serious and deadly surge in coronavirus infections since the pandemic began last year.

This August cases in Florida skyrocketed and hospital ICUs statewide began reaching maximum capacity. Coincidentally, this is when the Florida Department of Health decided to change how they reported data to the CDC on covid related deaths, which gave the appearance that the pandemic was in decline in the state. An analysis of the data was completed by the Miami Herald and el Nuevo Herald, who released the initial report on their findings.

The Herald’s analysis shows that on Monday the state’s data on coronavirus deaths would’ve reflected a daily average of 262 deaths reported to the CDC during the previous week under the health department’s prior reporting system; however, Florida’s Monday update reflected only 46 “new deaths” per day over the seven day timespan. So how come there’s such a dramatic difference in these numbers? The answer is simple — a small change made in the fine print.

Up until this last month, the data collected by the DOH and published by the CDC had counted deaths using the date recorded. This is one of the most common methods used by states to provide daily statistics. But Florida and a handful of other states decided to change this method, starting to tally new deaths from on the day the individual died. Sounds like no big deal, right? Well it’s actually a huge deal.

By charting recent deaths using Florida’s new methodology (i.e. based on date of death) the data will initially appear that deaths are on a declining slope, even if it’s during spikes like the one currently happening. This is due to the time delay between evaluating and processing death certificates. Once those numbers are finally available, they are then added to the final death data. The later add-one are problematic because this creates a spike where a downslope once existed and moving it forward in time.

The Herald spoke with Shivani Patel, an epidemiologist and assistant professor at Emery University, told the outlet that the move is “extremely problematic.” The decision to switch Florida’s recording method came without any notice or explanation, but now shows the state in an “artificial decline” in cases. “It would like like we are doing better than we are,” Patel said.

The switch-up came just a day after the FL DOH’s official Twitter account released a string of tweets that accused the CDC of publishing false and incorrect numbers, but failed to offer any evidence or explanation to support these claims.

Florida is having a rough week between the pandemic and Gov. Ron DeSantis deciding to withhold the salaries for school boards in two counties for requiring students to wear masks in classrooms. Since these implemented mask mandates defied DeSantis’ executive order which banned mask mandates in schools. Richard Corcoran, Florida’s Commissioner of Education, said the department has withheld the monthly salaries of school board members in Alachua and Broward counties.
Corcoran defended this reasoning in his statement citing “each district has implemented a mandatory face mask police that violates parental rights by not allowing a parent or legal guardian to opt-out their child.” He continued, “We’re going to fight to protect parent’s rights to make health care decisions for their children.” Corcoran also noted that the penalties are expected to carry on until the school board’s comply with the governor’s orders.

This comes just a week after a judge ruled that DeSantis’ order was “without legal authority.” The judge also issued an injunction blocking the department from bringing on penalties against school districts that implement mask mandates. The final judgement has still yet to be formally entered, per the Miami Herald’s report.

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