The Odds Do Lie: Three Reasons George Groves Will Win

This Saturday is a big day for British boxing fans, as the rematch of two of the most popular fighters in the United Kingdom has sold more tickets than any other boxing event in Britain’s history.

And it’s no wonder, as George Groves was robbed. Referee Howard Foster owes Groves two belts, having stopped the pair’s first fight in the ninth round. A quick look at the boxing betting odds reveals that oddsmakers see Groves as the underdog in this fight, but those odds simply don’t account for the reasons this fight is Groves’ to lose.

Here are three reasons Groves will have the edge in this fight.

Groves Abilities Are Superior

The technical elements that defined (most of) the first Froch vs. Groves haven’t changed. Groves is the superior athlete, the quicker puncher, and the more agile fighter. He regularly caught Froch squared off to him, and floored him in the first round after displaying a technical advantage that won’t have dulled with the passage of time.

Pacing is Not a Mistake Made Twice

Groves has heard the same message many, many times since Foster’s decision to stop the first fight: if it had gone the distance, he would have won a decision.

Groves got himself in trouble by pushing the pace early which cost him some shots that—while not significant enough to warrant stopping the fight—were nonetheless an issue. Even if it costs him the first round or two of this fight, Groves will have patience on the mind and avoid an early stoppage. With the technical advantages he has, avoiding a stoppage would likely seal the fight for the superior Groves.

Froch Taught Groves Patience

Carl Froch has fought some of the best boxers in the sport, learning from them as he goes while becoming a savvy veteran. Groves, a full decade younger than Froch, just learned a hard lesson from Froch: don’t get too emotional in the ring. After knocking down Froch for just the second time ever, Groves got understandably excited and exerted energy he needed to keep a level head later in the fight.

Groves’ primary weakness is between his ears: having learned the price of chasing an early win, Groves will stay disciplined, which in turn will mean Froch can’t capitalize on Groves’ wilder moments.

The guard is changing once and for all in England: come Sunday, we’ll have a new WBA and IBF super middleweight champion.