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Manny Pacquiao – Floyd Mayweather, JR: Breaking it Down By the Numbers

Who do you think will between Manny Pacquiao and Floyd Mayweather, JR.?

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floyd_mayweather_vs_manny_pacquiao_by_shomanart-d8728a5By Doctor Ibrahim Hussain

Manny Pacquiao’s rematch against Timothy Bradley confirmed many things. We know Manny Pacquiao was the better boxer the first time, but rightfully taking the decision in the second match Manny showed he still has it. Even more importantly Manny Pacquiao showed he has learned from his mistakes, like great champions do.

Role back the clock to April 10, 2004,  Lamon Brewster gets a TKO victory against Wladimir Klitschko. Brewster pressured Klitschko and exposed his thin whiskers (which Corrie Sanders had also done previously). From then on it seemed that Brewster had given the blueprint for success against Wlad, namely pressure fighting and going for the knockout.

However, there has been no success against Wlad since. Most of his opponents have tried the same tactics going forward. None succeeded. In fact, one of the fighters that made Wlad shine recently was Kubrat Pulev who opposed Wlad with the same style of fighting that has made the younger of the Klitschko brothers so successful. It was something very different that made Klitscho have to work harder.

In April 2014, Bradley stated after losing the rematch with Pacquiao that he was unsuccessful in his attempt to knockout the Philippine legend with the overhand right he was looking for. It was clear that Pacquiao was not going to be suckered into that trap, again displaying resistance to such a repeat knockout when he faced the scientific Chris Algieri in November 2014.

Pacquiao has looked far more calculated since his knockout loss to Juan Manuel Marquez, and it can be said that he will not lose to Mayweather, JR. in the same way. Not by knockout from the overhand right, and certainly not by the same pressure that caused questionable decisions against Marquez previously.

It’s fair to say that Mayweather, JR. won’t be able to follow any previous blueprint to beat Pacquiao.

On the other hand Floyd has great counter-punching ability which will be effective when Manny leaves himself open which he often does. But Manny will unlikely to be really troubled by Mayweather’s counter-punch power unless he really tires in the later rounds, which he is not prone to doing. But this gradual picking away with counter-punching by Mayweather, JR. could lead the way to a 48th consecutive win.

Pacquiao and Freddie Roach on the other hand have clearly seen what has been most effective against Mayweather, JR. during his two fights with Marcos Maidana. But it is also clear that Floyd learned from his toughest dual in recent years in the Maidana rematch. However, Maidana is no Pacquiao. In fact Mayweather, JR. has not fought anyone like Pacquiao ever. Yes, he has fought southpaws. Yes, he has fought punchers and people with quick hands. But a combination of hand and foot speed, southpaw, high work rate, granite chin and calculated mind with a multi winner trainer of the year. Mayweather, JR. has certainly not fought someone like this before.

Since Mayweather, JR. is not aggressive like Marquez then a blow out is not possible. Mayweather’s trademark shoulder roll will not be effective against southpaw Pacquiao, and his feet are not as fast as Manny’s so it will be unlikely that he can retreat back quick enough, so it just leaves his ability to spin out of the way. Freddie Roach will no doubt be planning on neutralizing this attribute and using it as an opportunity for a cunning offensive.

When you look at all possibilities on the table, none are clear paths for either fighter. The bookies have Mayweather, JR. ahead, but that is based on statistics and not science. With so many boxing writers, fighters, commentators and fans around it really is a case where there is no clear avenue for a prediction to victory for either fighter, and the predicted outcome is split by so many.

It really is that great a match up between two boxing greats still at the top of the game, with no certain winner. This is why it will be the richest fight in history.

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