Vinny’s Views: Canelo Alvarez Vs Liam Smith Broken Down by The Numbers & Pick the Round Alvarez Knocks Out Smith!
By Vinny “Glory Days “Lucci
This Saturday we get to witness the calendar filler for Golden Boy Promotions as they keep their prize possession busy while waiting for Gennady Golovkin to grow old. Canelo Alvarez will be fighting Liam Smith for his WBO light middleweight title. I wish there was some blood and vinegar to spill and possibly an exposed live water to kick start the interest but quite frankly the casual fan has never seen Liam fight let alone know his record. What appears to be an obvious mismatch on paper has left little to the imagination.
Joe Gallagher, manager of Smith has fired the first and only shot in an otherwise boring promotion. He has expressed interest in Alvarez being able to make the contracted weight of 154 pound limit for tomorrows weigh in. Claiming he doesn’t expect an overweight Alvarez to make a non-effort at weigh in, he made it abundantly clear he has no intentions of putting the belt on the line if Canelo is even one pound over the contracted limit.
Not pointing fingers in the icons direction, but noted several fighters in recent memory have failed to make contracted weight and then worked out a financial solution to allow the bout to continue. This will not be the case he assured the press. If Canelo comes in too heavy, the bout will no longer continue and assuring his fighter is already at target weight.
From there the pre-fight drama falls off into the abyss. Canelo who owns an impressive record of 47-1-1, 33 KO’s is the man the world wants to see tangle with middleweight champion Gennady “GGG” Golovkin. This title fight for him and his team is merely a formality to kill time until next fall when they claim Alvarez will be ready. In May of this year Canelo vacated his WBC middleweight title he had recently defended against Amir Kahn rather than feel peer pressure to unify with Golovkin. His belt was than awarded to “GGG” adding to his impressive collection of middleweight belts. Billy Joe Saunders holds the WBO version.
On paper, pick a round! Yes, that’s how much of a mismatch this looks to be. While the British champion Smith has been a pro since 2008 and sports an undefeated record of 23-0-1, 13 KO’s his resume simply lacks the name competition to conjure up visions of an upset. The 28 year old has fought almost exclusively in England with one bout in Wales and another in Scotland. “Beefy” as he is known by nickname does not have a recognizable name on his ledger. While he did appear taller at the press conference Liam only holds a half inch advantage in height standing 5’9 1/2. His measured reach is not available, but may be the single point of contention where he holds an edge over Canelo. Smith will be making his third defense of the title in Arlington Texas where he will surly feel like a fish out of water.
For those who need reminding, Alvarez of Mexican heritage has become the face of boxing. Well managed he has captured the imagination of the public as an assassin with underrated boxing skills. At the young age of 26, he has already been a pro eleven years and is currently riding an eight bout stoppage streak since 2013 where he acquired his only loss against pound for pound eras best Floyd Mayweather, JR. by decision. Predating that loss, he was riding an impressive streak over name fighters Kermit Citron, Shane Mosley, Josesito Lopez and Austin Trout.
Since the Mayweather, JR. loss Canelo has adopted some of the techniques that were used against him by the master. His shoulder roll and leaning back to avoid punches and firing counters with his opposition out of position has now become second nature. Yet it’s his destructive power inside the pocket hat has elevated him to fan favorite. Alvarez bangs with both hands upstairs and down to either side of the body. His power can be crippling as witnessed by some recent one punch knockouts of crafty, but over matched Amir Kahn and durable James Kirkland.
Recent history had him taking apart Alfredo Angulo by TKO in ten, as well as taking the WBC title from Miguel Cotto by unanimous decision. Sandwiched in between these exciting bouts was a boring 12 round decision over Erislandy Lara which most fans would simply rather forget. Lara boxed on a dime for first five rounds inside the pocket while making Canelo miss by inches. Somewhere in the round he must have gotten a taste of his power and elected to finish last seven rounds at a distance. Perhaps if the parking lot was available for extra room to run he would have taken it.
I had him losing those seven rounds flat by refusal to engage and not scoring on the outside. Boring as it was even to purists, at least it had a back story to sell as a promotion. Lara had interrupted a post-fight Canelo victory and demanded a shot at the title. Canelo instantly obliged, but refused a rematch saying, “sure when he learns to fight!” With fighting Canelo comes instant fame should one be able to hand him the loss. It is believed that Floyd Mayweather, JR. peaked the night he beat Alvarez adding his name and belt like a crown jewel to his collection. Images of Marvin Hagler looking untouchable against mighty Tony Sibson come to mind by comparison at that point in Mayweather’s career.
The fight, Saturday night should be entertaining for as long as it lasts. Liam has skills and packs a decent punch, but he has never entered the vast “talent” pool of 154 pound ranks where names like the Charlo brothers, Lara, Cotto reside as well as Austin Trout, and Demetrius Andrade hover in the top slots. When the bell rings the first startling difference will be the champion’s frame which appears stealth like and belonging to a true welterweight. Canelo will come forward matching jabs until he can land a hook to the body and gage Liam’s reaction.
A relentless body puncher, he will be on a mission to cut off the ring and minimize the champion’s lateral movement in a quest to crack his rib cage allowing head shots to follow. Liam will have to avoid trench warfare or be subjected to an agonizing defense and test of wills. His pride and survival instincts will force him to defend real estate once Canelo has made it abundantly clear there is nowhere to run. Betting odds have Canelo a solid 6/1 favorite. Many boxing writers are leaning towards an eighth round stoppage, leaving a percentage behind who believe in Liam’s heart and skill to carry him to a lopsided decision loss.
This fight only drifts into the second half if Canelo is comfortable winning rounds while gauging his distance to perfect his timing. For a bull in the ring he has shown remarkable maturity in setting traps and baiting a faster opponent into range. He is also more than willing to sacrifice defense and eat a few punches to engage a firestorm in a phone booth. Either way it is hard to logically foresee this bout advancing past five rounds of orchestrated mayhem. The body shots to rib cage will eventually make the champion freeze like a deer in head lights. Depending on referee this bout is predicated to end by knockout. The very reason Golden Boy promotions chose it.
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