Vinny’s Views: Kell Brook Vs Errol Spence, JR – Breaking It Down by the Numbers!

By Vinny “Glory Days” Lucci

While I covered this fight a few months back before the ink was dry on the contract I felt the need to revisit the hottest topic in boxing this week just days before the rapture. This Saturday IBF welterweight champion Kell Brook takes on the formidable number one ranked contender Errol Spence, JR. across the pond at Bramall Lane in Sheffield England. With half of the years hotly contested promotions behind us already and some of the mostly eagerly anticipated having been nothing more than smoke and mirrors this one promises to be of the “epic” standards of past classics.

While these two physical specimens of cunning muscle will square off quite evenly on paper Americans have thrown their support behind Errol Spence, JR. in a big way blowing off the respected champions career as if he were a pretender to the throne or an aged king ready to be taken. Nothing could be further from the truth.

Let’s revisit the stats and then get on with the debate as the clock ticks away to fight night. Kell Brook from England stands 5’9” with a 69” wingspan and fights from orthodox stance at 31 years of age. His record stands at 36-1, 25 KO’s. The lone loss coming last year at the hands of middleweight champion Gennady Golovkin where Brook climbed two weight divisions and gave the bigger man the best challenge of his career before suffering a broken orbital bone.

Errol Spence, JR. was born in New York and now resides in Texas. The 27 year old southpaw is just entering his prime and stands a half inch taller than the champion but enjoys a 3” reach advantage. His unblemished ledger boasts a 21-0, 18 KO’s record.

When you have two monikers on the marquee that read “The Special One” verses “The Truth” you feel it in your gut this isn’t clever marketing but one of the best 147 pound matchups in the last few decades. On paper, it’s that good.

Since the fight was signed the odds have shifted a tad opening at 11/10 either way to Spence being slightly favored at -135 to the champions +105. Keep in mind Vegas odds are predicated to change depending on the swing money behind the fighters. This information is not a barometer for handicapping the fighters themselves.

For the last three months, I have surveyed boxing websites through a plethora of pro Spence, JR. predictions but have been bewildered as to how the boxing fraternity of both fans and media have quickly dismissed Brook as being ripe for the kill. This is truly an even match up of talented and highly skilled boxers that should have posted as a pick-em’ matchup.

With that being said, let me elucidate and clarify what frenzied fans haven’t focused on and what to look for. Straight up and simply forgotten, Kell Brook is still unbeaten at welterweight. He is now eight months removed from his thrilling loss to “GGG”. Many fans think the Spence, JR. camp will target his once damaged eye which was mended with titanium and properly set for five weeks. Calcium doing God’s miracle should have mended the fracture every bit as original and then some.

Brook has beaten more welters, and at very least has proven himself against a gate keeper in the guise of Shawn Porter taking the champions title in a 12 round decision in 2014 and so far has made three successful defenses. Spence, JR. has looked spectacular taking on relatively unknown opposition while plying his trade with only two minor tests ascending him to the utopia of number one contender status. Chris Algieri was blown away in five rounds last April but it must be noted he was taken off his feet no less than 11 times in his last four bouts. Four months later 41 year old Leonard Bundu was flattened in six. This ignited the flames of popularity for Errol to get his title shot but I question if perhaps it’s two fights too soon.

Once the first bell rings these two perfectly honed boxers will look to not only control real estate but both must establish a power supremacy. Brook does very well against southpaws and that will negate the challenger’s hopes of having leverage of right sided lead power.

Spence, JR. has also spoken out on his plan to go to the body and chop down the tree. While he is superb once inside the pocket launching, a wicked body attack he must keep focused on the fact that no fighter extent fights better moving backwards on his heels than Kell. If Errol chooses to body snatch in hopes of tiring out the older champion he will be eating a lot of jabs and combinations on his way in. Brook’s throws 30 more jabs per round; hard powerful jabs. He also finishes every combination with a jab keeping his opponent off balance before adjusting to a lateral direction outside the gate. If the challenger does dictate the pace of fight inside the pocket he will also be giving up his reach advantage.

Fans have dismissed Brook’s lone loss as an act of surrender forgetting it was his trainer who called off the fight, not he himself quitting on his stool. For five rounds, he displayed a middleweight chin anchored behind a middleweight’s punch. Until the ring announcer declares the fight result on Saturday, no one can be quite sure what the challenger is truly made of based on his quality of opposition.

The media surrounding event has speculated the Brook will have a hard time reducing muscle mass and comfortably make the weigh in on Friday. What they severely overlooked is that this proud champion was never out of shape and not to be confused with recent exploits of Julio Cesar Chavez, JR. As of 5/23 Brook is only one pound, two ounces over the weight limit and has used ten weeks of training to get there naturally.

It is suspected that both fighters will rehydrate to middleweight. The challenger also carries a big welterweight frame but no focus has been shed on his timetable of making weight or if it has been a dilemma of his own.

The challenger is fighting in the champion’s backyard and must be akin to the fact that that Kell doesn’t usurp all the close rounds.

Come fight night both boxers will have to become warriors and gut out memorable power exchanges as both contestants are in fact the hardest punchers in the division.

The tally sheet of intangibles favors the champion regardless of betting odds. Should the challenger step up and beat Brook by either stoppage or convincing decision he will truly emerge a superstar. If the title remains in England you can’t say you weren’t warned it was a distinct possibility.

Unlike recent debacle match ups of Danny Garcia Vs Keith Thurman and Gennady Golovkin Vs Danny Jacobs, this bout promises fistic mayhem with a definitive winner.

Embrace the night’s action with open arms as it has potential for fight of the year.

Stay tuned…

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