Vinny’s Views: Sadam Ali Vs Liam Smith – The Stats, The Facts & The Fight Prediction Is In!

By Vinny “Glory Days” Lucci

It’s not often when handicapping a title fight where you truly have “pick-em” odds. I never have been one to say flip a coin and back door out of making a commitment so let’s kick a few over a few cans and roll the dice. Somewhere among the tatters of glory and bruised knuckles a boxer’s resume either exploits or hides the intangibles that separate one man from another. How deeply you dig separating your emotional feelings of fact from fiction lies a logical betting favorite.

As Rod Serling used to say, “Here for your viewing enjoyment may I present…” two such evenly matched contestants that even their resumes look like they were carbon copies. How close to carbon you might be musing about now? Both boxers turned pro ten years ago just two months apart and are both 29 years of age. Each man owns a 54% KO ratio on their wins, with records of 26-1, 14 KO’S alongside 26-1-1, 14 KO’s. These fighters also suffered their lone losses in same year. (2016) While the lime light has pretty much been denied in both corners they have each tasted the big time. The winner of this bout can finally distinguish himself and truly emerge center stage.

The Event:

Newly crowned WBO Jr. Middleweight champion Sadam Ali fresh off his stunning unanimous decision victory of Miguel Cotto takes on his number one mandatory contender Liam Smith. The venue will be held at Turning Stone Resort and Casino in Verona New York with HBO televising the co-promoted event between Frank Warren and Golden Boy Promotions on May 12. Of note, this feature bout was to air following the rebroadcast of PPV showdown between Gennady Golovkin and Canelo Alveraz which was scheduled for May 5 and now in serious jeopardy with advanced tickets being refunded upon request with the suspension of Alvarez for testing positive for steroids.

The Stats:

Sadam Ali is an orthodox boxer who stands 5”9” with a 73” inch reach and makes the most use of it fighting behind an educated jab. The American fighter hails from Brooklyn N.Y. and at 29 years old is entering his prime. His skillset has kept him healthy having avoided ring wars while being carefully matched earning a 26-1, 14 KO’s ledger. Almost his entire career Sadam was matched against welterweights who casual fans never heard of. His one loss came at the hands of talented but hardly legendary Jessie Vargas in nine rounds in 2016. That fight in itself is a questionable metaphor for both Vargas and Ali as to whether the win/loss was just an aberration or bench mark.

Liam Smith who hails from Merseyside, Liverpool England will be highly motived to recapture the belt that used to adorn his waist. The mandatory contender fights from orthodox stance, standing 5’ 9” with an unconfirmed reach. (est.: 74”) His record stands at 26-1-1, 14 KO’s and had two successful title defenses before granting Canelo Alvarez a shot which also ended in a round nine loss. Smith is a talented brawler whose style is very similar to Canelo’s. He is flat footed and likes to walk his man down under a heavy body barrage of body punches while seeking the knock out. He lives for the pocket where he excels at phone booth warfare for a fighter with good reach. He carries power in either hand and makes excellent use of uppercuts.

Last fight:

Sadam handed in his finest performance to date last December making good on his promise to send iconic legend Miguel Cotto into retirement without his title. The win for Ali was not predicted by yours truly as the media at large were shoved under the bus in disbelief. Miguel had key moments and made it a fight but decision was clearly just.

Smith last fought in November in Manchester England against Liam Williams who he had previously stopped by 9th round (RTD) the bout before. This time around Smith beat Williams by MD at Metro Radio Arena, New Castle England. While one judge had scored it even at 114-114, he lead by commanding lead on others cards, 116-112, and 117-111. Against a skilled boxer in Williams, Smith elected to use his jab and outbox his quarry instead of his usual assault. Either way he finds a tempo to cut off the ring.

What to look for fight night: If you’re an Ali fan you have to question his biggest win against his lone loss. When put to the question his friend and expert analyst Paulie Malignaggi warned that the Cotti win was the real Sadam, and the Vergas fight the anomaly. In between we really don’t have much to gauge the champion on as his career has not been historic or news worthy. Therefore expect him to hone his speed and jab and look to control ring and out maneuver the challenger round by round.

It took nine rounds for Alvarez to bring down Smith and there is a world of difference in style and power so don’t expect Ali to come close. While Smith displayed a new found sense of patience his last time out he gave up some early ground in scoring keeping the fight close through first half. Against a speedy adversary he will need to constantly adjust gears boxing for position than letting his heavier hands go in tandem. If his team was paying attention to the Jessie Vargas bout, it was body blows that slowed down Ali allowing brutal headshots to follow.

The Vinny Factor:

This match will come down to a mathematical equation of controlling the radius of square footage inside the ring. A larger ring favors the champion while a smaller one honors the skills of the challenger. Sadam will look to box in arcs on the perimeter of real estate while Liam will look to own the pocket center stage, against the ropes, or in the corners.

While the addition of seven pounds has seemingly transformed Ali into a better stronger fighter it must be remembered Cotto had engaged in several ring wars in hall of fame career that spanned 16 years, most notably against Antonio Margarito in their first encounter where it is believed Margarito had loaded gloves, and against Manny Pacquiao at his fearsome best. Against Smith he will be dealing with a fresh foe who is highly motivated to regain his title. He is also the naturally bigger man who has spent his entire career at this weight and will likely enter ring a middleweight with noticeably heavier hammers to drop.

Odds:

Vegas Line, Ali at -125 with Smith at -105

Prediction:

Liam Smith by S.O.S. (Scorecards or Stoppage) While he may be a notch slower when calibrating speed Smith keeps his guard high and while the champion will start off fast he will be peppering mostly the challengers gloves. Having gone to the video tape there was nothing lucky or accidental about the Vargas loss. Jessie waited his man out and threw his entire body into the punches that felled Ali and brought about the stoppage. On the flip side of coin Canelo Alvarez landed 157 power shots of 422 thrown under high pressure to bring Liam to a halt. What could be the deciding factor is that Smith constantly changes the tempo on his combinations setting up the sneaky power shots while his foe is busy defending against the range finders.

Fascinating after thought, Kell Brook becomes the new mandatory.

Stay tuned…

[si-contact-form form=’2′]