Vinny’s Views: Manny Pacquiao Vs Lucas Matthysse: The Stats, The Facts & The Fight Prediction Is In!

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By Vinny “Glory Days” Lucci

Back in black, I hit the sack, I’ve been too long and I’m glad to be back. (Lyrics courtesy of AC/DC)

They say life pivots on a dime and you must be prepared to roll with it or fall off. Case in point, Manny Pacquiao returns from the tatters of ill-advised title defense against one Jeff Horn in the challenger’s backyard of Brisbane Australia where the officiating made a sorry ass spectacle of the champion’s storied career. Manny can blame inept promoter Bob Arum of Top Rank for allowing an unknown challenger to dictate the terms of site knowing full well the star attraction of his stable had not secured a knockout in seven years. That was one year ago and now the immortal “Pacman” faces the precarious pinnacle of his career in a win or walk away proposition as he is just five months shy of his 40 birthday, and possible run for presidency of the Philippines.

The Event:

Lucas Matthysse will be defending his WBA welterweight title for first time against the legendary Pacquiao on July 14, (15th in Malaysian time) at the Axiata Arena in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. Besides bragging rights a promised unification match against newly crowned boxing sensation WBO champion Terence Crawford will be at stake. Crawford recently kept his unbeaten record going with a ninth round annihilation of Jeff Horn.

The Stats:

The champion stands 5’6 1/2” with a 69” reach. The Argentinean is 35 years old with an upcoming birthday this September. Fighting form the Orthodox stance Matthysse owns a 39-4, 36 KO’s record with one no contest. His storied career boasts a “who’s who” in last decade of junior welterweights including; Zab Judah, Lamont Peterson, Devon Alexander, DeMarcus Corley, Vivian Harris, Humberto Soto, Danny Garcia, John Molina, JR., Ruslan Provodnikov, and Viktor Postol.

The challenger stands a hair shorter at 5’5” and possesses a shorter wingspan of 67”. Pacquiao fights from southpaw stance which at the advanced age of 39 might be his best weapon to neutralize his highly motivated adversary. Hailing from General Santos City the Philippine icon’s ledger reads 59-7-2, 38 KO’s. Known the world over having won titles in no less than eight divisions, Manny is a future hall of famer whose legacy is already intact.

Previous Fight:

Last January Matthysse won the vacant WBA welterweight title with an 8 round stoppage of formally undefeated Tewa Kiram at the Forum in Inglewood California. Going into match Kiram fooled many a handicapper with his unblemished record of 38-0, 28 KO’s.

On July 2, 2017 Pacquiao went to war with Jeff Horn and was forced to surrender his cherished WBO welterweight belt on hostile territory by unanimous decision. The horrific scoring was almost on par with the 2012 debacle against Timothy Bradley Jr where his WBO belt was also hijacked by inept judges.

Styles and what to look for fight night:

The champion is a talented boxer who carries power in either hand. At welterweight Lucas has yet to test the deep waters to see if he can swim among the bigger sharks named Spence, Crawford, Thurman and Porter. An aged Pacquiao who masquerades part time now as a boxer while spending serious time in knit suits as a senator in the Philippine government will be the perfect coming out party. Matthysse needs to be firing on all cylinders with speed, movement, defense and controlling the pocket if he is to pull the rug out from under the come-backing Pacman. With a year of ring rust around Manny’s legs the key element for the champion will be stamina and not to let up on the pace.

Manny is a wicked southpaw who has gained the world stage with vibrant imaginary combinations entering the pocket on either side while daftly exiting the gate under his opponent’s reach and stepping back out of harm’s way. To beat him a fighter must try to time his excursions of uncanny movements or wage hell in the trenches and punch with him. This becomes a fascinating “what if” element as Pacquiao hasn’t produced a knockout in eight years and seems unable to sustain the necessary blunt force trauma he once carried into ring against the likes of Miguel Cotto back in 2009.

The Vinny Factor:

Throw a set of dice enough times and sooner or later the gambler “craps out.” Oscar De La Hoya threw the dice one time too often against Manny Pacquiao a decade ago and came up short. De La Hoya who promotes Matthysee is betting that Pacquiao’s ring career has finally come full circle. Add the dubious distinction of long time hall of fame trainer Freddie Roach not training Manny for this bout nor will he be in his corner on fight night. While Pacman has an extremely versatile style in the ring, there simply is never a plan “B.” Manny must execute his style to perfection or suffer the consequences of counter punches. No trainer extent does better pad work in preparing a boxer for any particular fight than Roach.

Being replaced by Pac’s longtime side kick and second in charge Buboy Fernandez may be tipping the canoe at wrong place and time. In the opposite corner Joel Diaz has been diligently altering the champions come forward aggressive style and mimicking the combinations used by Pacquiao’s longtime rival and nemesis Juan Manuel Marquez. Juan always proved to be Pac’s equal and highlighted the rivalry with a sixth round KO In 2012. Inquiring minds and gym rats want to speculate on how much ring rust Manny has accumulated while officiating as a senator.

Finally least we not forget the setting of the night where the bout is being hosted in Malaysia. Rest assured Manny’s camp is hoping to sway public opinion at home where he is considered godlike on earth.

Odds:

Vegas lists match at +155 for the champion Matthysee, and -175 for the challenger Pacquiao

With so much on chalk board this title fight should have listed as even money in a “pick-‘em” bout.

Prediction:

This goes to the score cards as both combatants hear the final bell. Too close to call, this could be a draw. Logical thinking prevails that Manny wins a decision but the thrilling rounds will be won by Lucas.

Stay tuned…

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