Vinny’s Views: Gennady Golovkin Vs Sergiy Derevyanchenko – The Stats, The Facts & The Ringside Report Prediction Is In!

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By Vinny “Glory Days “Lucci

Beyond the compendium of Akashic records and the arduous journey of time and memorial there is only one sure thing when it comes to handicapping professional sports; that is “there is no such thing as a sure thing.”

The Event:

World renowned Gennady Golovkin takes on the formidable challenge of highly respected Sergiy Derevyanchenko on Saturday October 5 making his seventh appearance at Madison Square Garden in New York City for vacant IBF middleweight title. Eddie Hearn of Matchroom Boxing will promote event for DAZN live stream subscription service. The title was recently stripped from Canelo Alvarez for failing to defend against Derevyanchenko who was elevated to number one contender last April. With the WBC’s mendacious bestowing of the reckless title of “franchise champion” on Alvarez he now is disinterested in Sergiy, a trilogy with Golovkin or a faceoff with WBC champion Jermall Charlo.

The Stats:

Gennady Golovkin is of Kazahn heritage and now resides in Santa Monica, California. The 37 year old may be slightly passed his prime but still doesn’t flinch at pain and wields steel hammers in both fists. The orthodox fighter boasts a ledger of 39-1-1, 35 KO’s with half the boxing establishment believing he has yet to be defeated in the ring regardless of the draw and loss on his ledger courtesy of Canelo Alvarez and questionable score cards. Standing 5’10 ½” with a 70” wingspan he has been the quintessential middleweight of last decade having always entered ring in magnificent shape and going 18-1-1, 17 KO’s in title fights.

Sergiy Derevyanchenko is a Ukrainian powerhouse who fights from orthodox stance and now calls Brooklyn New York home. Sergiy owns a modest record of 13-1, 10 KO’s with his lone loss coming against his only formidable opponent on his resume Daniel Jacobs by SD. (RSR scored it a UD for Jacobs) At 33 years of age he is at the precarious crossroads of “world stage” and “also ran” if he is unable to seize the moment. Standing 5’9” with a 67” reach he will be at a disadvantage in every category except mileage. What he lacks in experience at five years as a pro he also is the fresher of the two combatants. Of note, standing side by side with Gennady at press conferences there is a several inch disparity in in height making one question the validity of listed measurements. The drop off at shoulders in face off makes him appear to be in the JR. middleweight division.

Last Fight:

Triple G last fought in June exposing Steve Rolls as a second tier contender at Madison Square Garden by fourth round KO. The 12 round bout was contested at catch weight of 164 pounds. Golovkin used the opportunity of rediscovering his wicked body attack under the tutelage of new trainer Jonathon Banks after a bitter money dispute with long time mentor Abel Sanchez. Golovkin dropped Rolls face first to the canvass where he failed to beat the referee’s count spoiling his perfect record of 19-0, 10 KO’s.

Sergiy last fought in April at the Minneapolis Armory winning a UD over one Jack Culcay, 26-4, 13 KO’s in what turned out to be an exaggerated boxing match for an opponent who fought most of his career at 154 pounds. Sergiy appeared too patient shadow boxing his adversary and not producing the expected fireworks to earn the lofty ranking. At bouts conclusion Sergiy out landed Culcay by 229-147 punch count margin but the fight was competitive throughout with Derevyanchenko sustaining pink and blue eyes courtesy of well-placed right hand bombs with ringsiders believing fight was even going into 12th round.

Styles and what to look for Fight Night:

This will be a very entertaining middleweight clash with two gents who can truly smack down leather. For Sergiy to get his pound of flesh he’s going to have to enter the pocket as he will not be able to outbox Gennady from outside the gates. Golovkin will rumble behind a heavy jab keeping his shorter armed adversary circling the ring with nimble footwork. When Golovkin backs him into a corner or on his heels Derevyanchenko will have to stand his ground on the inside and let both hands go knowing full well the problematic return volley of being inside G’s wheelhouse. Gennady has been here too many times and knows how to break down an opponent both physically and mentally. After an introduction round or two the pace will quicken and each round will resemble a war. If Sergiy decides to box to a decision the war of attrition will already be lost.

The Vinny Factor:

While media and fans focus on the upcoming mayhem it’s the handicapper’s task to uncover the back story to event and decide if it’s a level playing field. Sergiy’s camp is banking on timing that the two wars with Alvarez took something out of Gennady as well as the calendar. What they haven’t processed is that those two bouts have prepared Golovkin for this style fight better than any elite training camp possibly could. Add the fact that Gennady was enveloped in intense training for the third Canelo fight which he was lead to believe would take place in September and was already forging his body in steel. The quick turnaround to ring not only prevented rust but kept his eye on the prize.

As Jonathon Banks prepares the fine tuning this month I would advise him to archive October of 2015 where Golovkin easily stopped the hard punching threat of David Lemieux by 8th round TKO by circling his adversary behind a constant barrage of power jabs that opened the flood gates to right hands and body attack.

Finally even though Sergiy now resides in Brooklyn it’s Golovkin who has adopted MSG as a second home and will thrive in ring like the Yankees in the Bronx with home field advantage.
Flipside of promotion has Derevyanchenko coming off a narrow win over a boxer that was set up to be knocked down. The lack of firepower in his combinations left ringsiders pondering what was missing.

Fight Significance:

“A” Whether you are a hard core or casual fan you will be hard pressed to find a better action fight this year.

Odds:

Vegas has instilled Golovkin the favorite by -400 with Derevyanchenko at +300

RSR Prediction:

Golovkin by S.0.S. (Stoppage or Scorecards)

Aftermath:

Golovkin had been much too polite in requesting Canelo Alvarez’s company to the squared canvass dance. It cost him dearly as promoter Oscar De La Hoya played puppeteer pulling all the strings and forcing Gennady to age on the vine while his fighter who has entered ring at 170 pounds for years continued to mature. If they don’t want the fight then Triple G should look forward to best options available and let the history books remember in kind what really happened in the first two encounters.

Still on the books is WBC champion Jermall Charlo who has all the tools and promotional skills to draw a mega fight but dare I say his credentials are slim. The “Big Choke” Billy Joe Saunders talks a good fight even though for years he has always managed to find a way to do so after failing to sign a contract. Least of all we not forget that old nemesis Daniel Jacobs is truly worthy of a rematch.

If Derevyanchenko is soundly beaten he just may start getting offers from the stars who avoided him. If he pulls the upset or puts up one hell of a fight without losing gravity he can expect more of the same.

Stay tuned…

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