Ruslan Provodnikov Vs Lucas Matthysse: Breakdown and Prediction for 2015’s Fight of The Year
By Travis Fleming
Tonight HBO will be airing what many fans are expecting to be the fight of the year as far as all out brutality is concerned. The Turning Stone Resort & Casino in Verona, New York will play host to a battle of power punching, former champions when Ruslan “The Siberian Rocky” Provodnikov, 23-2-0 16 KO’s, battles Argentinian action hero Lucas Matthysse, 36-3-0 32 KO’s.
Although both men have shown limitations against technical boxers, they have always brought excitement to the ring and their clash of styles is sure to create fireworks, even more so than usual, as both men are extremely hungry, and desperate, for a win that will ensure they remain towards the top of the division. This is a real crossroads fight where the winner will go on to fight for another championship, while the loser will be relegated to opponent status and have to start a long rebuilding process. Put in this must win scenario, you better believe that both men are going to come with their absolute best.
Both are aging and have been through a lot of ring wars, taking a lot of punishment as a result of their brutal fighting styles, so a loss here could mean the end of the losers’ career at the championship level. With so much on the line, coupled with their natural styles, this fight is sure to be ranked right up there with the last two fights of the year which were awarded to bouts featuring these very same warriors (2014’s fight of the year was Matthysse vs John Molina Jr and 2013’s was Provodnikov vs Timothy Bradley).
Matthysse is 32 years old and broke onto the world scene in 2010, coming to America and losing a close decision to former champ Zab Judah after fighting his first six years as an undefeated pro in Argentina. He would prove that it was no fluke that he gave Judah all he could handle when he did the same thing to former champ Devon Alexander in 2011, again losing a close decision that could have gone either way. With these two bouts, Matthysse proved he could hang with the elite of the 140 lb division. Since then, Matthysse has been in a ton of exciting bouts and won his first world championship in war with Ajose Olusegun by TKO in the tenth round.
Other good wins on Matthysse’s resume include stoppages of former champs Demarcus Corley and Humberto Soto, and, most impressively, a third round TKO of recent champion Lamont Peterson, who just gave an excellent showing last weekend against 140 lb king Danny Garcia. In September of 2013, Matthysse was involved in the biggest fight of his career on the undercard of Floyd Mayweather, JR. vs Canelo Alvarez, in a massive unification bout against fellow junior welterweight champion Danny Garcia to determine the king of the division. Matthysse was the heavy favorite going in, but got outboxed and, uncharacteristically, outslugged by the underdog Garcia in losing a clear unanimous decision. Matthysse suffered a lot of damage in this fight, and didn’t react well to being bullied for the first time. He was cut, beaten up pretty badly, and it appears that the Garcia beating took something out Lucas as he has never returned to the form he showed pre-Garcia. In his next bout he would face the unheralded John Molina Jr in another fight where he suffered a lot of damage. The underdog, Molina, pushed Matthysse to his limits, knocked him down, and almost knocked him out before getting caught and KO’d by Matthysse in round 11.
The fight was a brutal war and was awarded fight of the year for 2014. Despite this distinction, the Molina bout showed that Matthysse has not recovered from the beating he was given by Garcia as Molina is a very limited fighter and someone that a pre-Garcia Matthysse would have likely destroyed within just a couple of rounds. This is the same Molina that couldn’t even win ten seconds of a round against Adrien Broner last March. Matthysse might very well be on the decline and his punch resistance has likely suffered from the Garcia and Molina fights.
Ruslan Provodnikov has never been in a dull fight as a pro, and likely not as an amateur, or on the streets in his youth. It just isn’t in him, he knows only one way and that’s to keep attacking until his opponent can withstand no more and he’s got the punch resistance necessary to implement this approach. He turned pro in 2006, relocated from Russia to America and won 17 straight fights before stepping up in class in 2011 to face the very talented Mauricio Herrera in an exciting fight of the year candidate. Provodnikov lost a close decision to Herrera but bounced back to win five straight including a unanimous decision win over former champ Demarcus Corley. In 2013, Provodnikov would be the underdog in a fight against Timothy Bradley for the WBO welterweight title. Bradley had just won this title in a controversial decision, and shocking upset, over the legendary Manny Pacquiao.
Aside from the Pacquiao fight, Bradley had gone undefeated through 28 fights, had become the king of 140 lbs and had beaten some excellent fighters en route to becoming one of the most highly regarded pound for pound fighters in the sport. No one gave Provodnikov much of a chance against Bradley, but Provodnikov would shock the boxing world by dishing out the worst beating of Bradley’s career. Bradley came out over confident from the start, and instead of using his superior boxing ability, he opted to brawl with the dangerous Provodnikov. It was a huge mistake as Provodnikov smashed him with power punches in the first two rounds.
Bradley would later say he was concussed from the first big shot in round one and never fully recovered. He had trouble seeing for the whole fight and had to rely on his grit and champion heart to survive. Bradley came back and won most of the middle rounds, but was forced to take a knee in the final seconds of the fight to avoid getting knocked out by the vicious assault launched by Provodnikov. Bradley was awarded the decision win in a fight that could have gone either way, but it was Provodnikov who saw his stock rise after a gutsy performance that gave the heavily favored Bradley all he could handle. Provodnikov’s performance against Bradley earned him a world title shot later in the year against WBO junior welterweight champion Mike Alvarado. Provodnikov knocked Alvarado down twice in the fight, and a demoralized Alvarado decided he’d had enough and quit on his stool after the tenth round, giving Provodnikov his first world title.
In 2014, Provodnikov attempted his first title defense against undefeated slickster Chris Algieri. Provodnikov knocked down Algieri twice in the first round and appeared to be on his way to an early knockout win, but Algieri showed a ton of courage and used his excellent footwork to avoid Provodnikov for much of the remainder of the bout. In the end, Algieri was awarded a split decision victory, and, along with it Provodnikov’s world title. Most felt Provodnikov deserved the win, and after the bout, Provodnikov expressed his frustration with Algieri’s style, claiming Algieri just ran away from him the entire fight, and that from here on he only wants to face warriors who will actually fight with him. In both the Algieri and Herrera bouts, Provodnikov proved that he has a lot of difficulty with defensive minded fighters that have good movement.
At the end of 2014, Provodnikov would have his first major bout in his home country of Russia. The fight was a complete mismatch and should not have even been sanctioned as he signed to face badly faded former great champion Jose Luis Castillo. Castillo was 41 years old, over ten years past his prime, and his last significant win, and had no chance whatsoever in this fight. Provodnikov would expectedly stop Castillo in the fifth round on a farcical card that also fittingly featured a staged fight with 61 year old actor Mikey Rourke scoring a knockout over a 29 year old fighter who was surely paid to not hit back and take a dive.
Matthysse and Provodnikov have a lot of similarities; they’re both powerful and relentless, they both broke into the world class ranks in 2010, they’re the same height, they’ve both faced an equal level of opposition, they both have three losses, they have both been the victims of controversial decision losses, and they’re around the same age (Matthysse is one year older at 32). They share a common opponent in former champ Demarcus Corley, Matthysse stopped Corley in the eighth round while Provodnikov beat him by unanimous decision.
Matthysse is probably the slightly harder puncher and has better technique, but Provodnikov is the more relentless fighter with the better chin. Matthysse has a three inch reach advantage that he should attempt to use to keep Provodnikov off of him, in an attempt to outbox the rugged Russian, but Matthysse cannot resist a brawl so expect him to revert to exchanging with Provodnikov once he tastes a couple of Provodnikov’s power punches. It’s hard to teach an old dog new tricks, and it’s highly unlikely that Matthysse can change his style after fighting the same way for over a decade as a pro, in just one training camp. These two are going to brawl at some point when Matthysse abandons his boxing and decides to trade punches, so this one could all come down to punch resistance. Matthysse was hurt badly against Garcia and that might have led to a weaker chin than he once had as evidenced by him almost getting KO’d by Molina in his next fight. Provodnikov appears to be the fresher of the two and closer to peak form in recent outings.
Provodnikov has shown time, and time again, he can take a massive punch and I’m not so sure Matthysse is still capable of this. This fight will be an all out war for however long it lasts, expect Provodnikov’s superior chin to outlast that of Matthysse’s until Matthysse can take no more.
Official prediction: Provodnikov by sixth round TKO in 2015’s Fight of the Year.
