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Warning to Manny Pacquiao: Avoid Sergio Martinez

By Geno McGahee

Freddie Roach has said repeatedly that the eventual time would come that Manny Pacquiao would take that step too far and face the wrong guy. It would be a guy too big for the once 106 pound fighter, and that time has come most likely, should they proceed with a bout with middleweight champion, Sergio Martinez.

Martinez was really out of the picture at one point, but with the current crop of opponents willing to face Pacquiao, this fight is the most intriguing, and it is, but does Manny need this fight? It will make dollars but does it make sense?

When Shane Mosley was rumored to be the frontrunner, all of boxing nearly lost their lunch in disappointment. Mosley, as good as he was, is nowhere near the league of a Pacquiao now. If you thought he was timid when he fought Floyd Mayweather, JR., don’t be surprised if you see “Sugar” Shane bolting from the arena or, if he were to go through with the fight, be carried out on a stretcher. It is a terrible fight and the boxing fans knew it.

Andre Berto, the undefeated and greatly untested WBC Welterweight Champion, was on the list but remarkably, a first round knockout defense of his title removed him. When the fans watched him flatten the inept Freddy Hernandez, it really showed what the career of Berto is about, up to this point. He has been spoon fed and going from Hernandez to Pacquiao is an unrealistic jump and even Berto knew that, suggesting a fight with Mosley instead of the Filipino wrecking machine.

Juan Manuel Marquez, the man that gave Pacquiao the most trouble, going 0-1-1 in two fights with him, climbed off the canvas to stop a very determined Michael Katsidis in his last fight and then put down the challenge to Pacquiao, but when Team Manny wanted to face him at a higher weight than 140, reportedly, the encounter hit a major snag, and Pacquiao may want to quit while he’s ahead with Marquez. The first fight was a draw, the second was a split decision win…who knows what could happen if they should fight again. As Pacquiao has moved on, Marquez seemed to have fixated on Manny, and that may be bad news for him.

Of course, Floyd Mayweather, JR., is the man that we all want to see him in the ring with, but it’s becoming a more and more unrealistic option. Why waste the time and sit down with him when you know that he has zero to little interest in being in the ring with Pacquiao. His hands may be shaking too much to even put the gloves on to face him, but there has been talk of a 2011 bout and maybe the stars will be aligned and the fight will happen, but I’m not holding my breath.

If not Mosley, Marquez, Berto, or Mayweather, JR….then who will it be? Sergio Martinez made the statement of the year when he flattened one of the best fighters in the world, Paul Williams in two rounds. Prior to that, he beat up long time middleweight champion, Kelly Pavlik en route to a decision win. Of late, he has really come into his own and at 160 pounds, a true middleweight, how does Pacquiao beat a guy like that?

If anyone can move up from 106 to 160 and win titles, it’s Pacquiao, but recent fights have given an insight as to what to expect from a Martinez showdown and it doesn’t look good for the “PacMan.”

Joshua Clottey and Antonio Margarito are strong welterweights and both were able to take whatever Pacquiao was able to dish out. They were beaten by the timing and activity of Pacquiao, but with Clottey in a shell the whole fight and Margarito terribly overmatched (especially without the plaster in his hand wraps). He hit Margarito with everything and didn’t knock him down or out. An old Shane Mosley beat Margarito up and knocked him cold. Mosley is a natural light middleweight. Pacquiao is a blown up lightweight, but he is so talented that he can actually defeat bigger men and his punch is a light welterweight power punch, but beyond that, he doesn’t seem to have the power he once possessed.

Martinez is a much better fighter then Clottey or Margarito, and is continually improving, and he has even put on a crown, naming himself the king of the sport…perhaps the best in the game.

Now for those that bring up the 2000 TKO loss to Margarito as some sort of proof that Pacquiao will clearly win, let’s examine it a little first. First, we don’t know how long Margarito has been loading his gloves, and I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if he hit Martinez with the same bricks he hit Miguel Cotto with. Martinez only had 17 fights and has grown immensely since. If he were to face Margarito again, he would stop Margarito.

Bringing up that loss is like bringing up Pacquiao’s defeats early in his career. He’s a different fighter now and so is Martinez…but should they fight, which would most likely be at a catch weight of 150 (give or take), Pacquiao has the tallest order of his career in front of him and he will be facing a fighter as resourceful, as talented, and as intelligent, but bigger.

A good big man beats a good small man and here we have a great big man versus a great small man, and unless Manny can beat Martinez into a shell, which seems like a long shot here considering Martinez’s increasing aggression in the ring, we will have a very predictable upset.

The fight doesn’t seem like a good idea for Manny, but everyone else would win. Boxing fans would have a true super fight, a worthy pay per view to purchase, and Martinez would finally get his shot at the big time.

A win over Martinez would be an enormous feather in the cap of both Pacquiao and trainer Freddie Roach and maybe that reward is worth the risk, but at this point, should the fight be signed, the smart money is on Martinez to stop the growing Filipino superstar at light middleweight. He’s just too big and highly skilled.

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