Shane Carwin Vs Junior Dos Santos: UFC 131 HEATS UP
By Sean Farrell
So with a HUGE heavyweight bout tomorrow night at UFC 131 between Junior dos Santos and Shane Carwin, I figured I would breakdown the numbers for everyone. My good friends at Compustrike have sent me the report for tomorrow night’s main event and it is VERY telling.
Let me begin with some key notes from Compustrike, given the fact that Carwin has had 5 UFC fights in his career his numbers are based on a 5 fight average. dos Santos on the other hand, is based on a 6 fight average.
dos Santos is a 7-5 favorite going into the bout as he is a heavy favorite to be the next UFC heavyweight champion.
dos Santos’ MMA record: 12-1 (8 wins by KO-ALL IN FIRST ROUND, 3 wins by sub., 1 win by dec.)
dos Santos’ UFC record: 6-0 (4 wins by KO, 1 win by dec., 1 win by sub.)
Carwin’s MMA record: 12-1 (7 wins by KO, 5 wins by sub.) ALL WINS IN FIRST ROUND
Carwin’s UFC record: 4-1 (4 wins by KO)
Carwin was the NCAA Div. II Wrestling Heavyweight Champion (1999) at Western State College
CompuStrike Comparison Report
Junior Dos Santos (6 Fight Averages) vs. Shane Carwin (5 Fight Averages)
Junior Dos Santos – Total Fight Time – Standing: 33:47 | Ground: 1:27
Shane Carwin – Total Fight Time – Standing: 8:20 | Ground: 6:11
These numbers are showing me that dos Santos loves to strike on his feet and Carwin will oblige. But, if Carwin is struggling these numbers also tell me he will have no problem getting a takedown. I expect this fight to be just that, starting with strikes and whoever is rocked first will go to the takedown for safety purposes.
Dos Santos CompuStrike Averages Carwin
48/104 Total Strikes Landed/Thrown 11/19
46% Percentage 58%
27 Total Power Strikes Landed 6
21 Total Non-Power Strikes Landed 5
56% Percentage of Total Power Strikes Landed 55%
What this shows is clearly both men have power, but Carwin needs less power shots to get the job done so I give him the advantage in this category. Carwin
16/47 Total Arm Strikes Landed/Thrown 5/11
34% Percentage 46%
8 Power Strikes Landed 3
8 Non-Power Strikes Landed 2
This shows Carwin is more accurate but dos Santos is more active with his hands leading to more power punches. I give this one to dos Santos strictly based on output. dos Santos
7/14 Total Leg Strikes Landed/Thrown 1/1
50% Percentage 100%
4 Power Strikes Landed 1
3 Non-Power Strikes Landed 0
This category is self-explanatory and clearly goes to dos Santos who likes to mix up his strikes unlike Carwin. dos Santos
25/43 Ground Strikes Landed/Thrown 5/7
58% Percentage 71%
15 Power Strikes Landed 2
10 Non-Power Strikes Landed 3
This is a category I hope to see utilized most in the bout. Both men have superior ground games that we rarely see given the power in their hands. I am giving this one to Carwin because once on the ground, he is relentless like and ogre mauling a man and extremely accurate needed very few shots to end a fight. Carwin
12/25 48% Takedowns/Attempts* 2/5 40%
7 Submission Attempts* 1
18 Dominant Positions* 2
*Actual Numbers – Not an average
Now these numbers are telling in the sense that dos Santos is a Brazilian jiu -jitsu guy, meaning he works off his back quite well but the key here is when is he on his back? Carwin being an elite wrestler hasn’t needed his takedowns in many fights because once he scores one the fights usually ended shortly after. This category is a push and that pains me to say I hate ties.
Key CompuStrike Stats
Carwin landed an average of just 11 arm strikes per fight in his UFC career, but Carwin’s UFC fights lasted an average of 2:42 so basically he ends fights before halfway through the first round. dos Santos has been on his feet for over 90% of his six UFC fights with dos Santos outlanding his six UFC opponents better than 3-1 in arm strikes.
This bout isn’t expected to last long and I myself am a huge dos Santos fan but will not go against Shane Carwin in a fight. Although the numbers to me breakdown evenly per category at 2-2-1, I just can’t depend on them for a fight of this magnitude to decide a winner. However based on every fight I have ever seen with both of these men, I would be shocked if Carwin loses this one as I expect him to end it in typical Carwin fashion with a monster knockout.