The Early Line Week 13
By Ron Signore
Week 12 proved to be a tough one. The Bears and Lions covered for our wins of the week, going 2-3. The only pick I changed in my own final betting was I ended up laying the points with the Packers over the 49ers with the news later in the week that Brock Purdy was listed as OUT for the game. That changes the whole handicap dynamic.
Week 13 brings a very busy week of football, and traditionally, one of the most watched with the coveted Thanksgiving Day games.
On Thanksgiving Day, we will have the traditional games featuring the Lions and Cowboys. The Lions host the Bears, and the Cowboys host the Giants. These are both divisional games that could have implications for playoff hopes, or a notion to keep playing for pride.
The Lions (10-1) are 9.5 point home favorites as they host the dysfunctional Chicago Bears (4-7). The Bears are a team that struggles to find ways to win. I have zero expectation for them to win on Thursday in a hostile Ford Field. If I were to play this straight up, I would ride the hot hand of the Lions multifaceted dominance and lay the points. The Bears kept a pretty strong Vikings team within reach Sunday at Soldier Field, and if they have any hope at all to keep this game against the Lions close, their defense will be as flawless as possible, and even that wont be enough to prevent the loss. The Lions running game and ability to throw the ball around the field to Jared Goff’s different weapons is inevitable. While 9.5 points is a lot, this is falling to be a trust your eyes type of pick. Dan Campbell will have his team ready.
The 4-7 Cowboys host the 2-9 dumpster fire of the New York Giants. Cooper Rush has led the offensive attack for the Cowboys after Dak Prescott went down with an injury, and surprisingly has played fairly well, serving as the intention of a reliable backup QB. The Giants, however, just cut their starting QB, Daniel Jones, and are playing with back up QB’s fighting for the starting spot week by week going forward. Both teams have coaches on the hotseat, but being in the NFC East, there is very little that can happen with the divisional standings from this point on. The Giants have very little hope for anything positive and are essentially playing for pride. The Cowboys still have an outside chance of competing for a wild card spot. However, they have yet to win at home this year. I think that changes this weekend, and ill be laying the 3.5 points for the Thanksgiving Day home favorite, Cowboys.
One wager I would consider is teasing the Lions down to 3.5 points and the total in the Cowboy game to over 31.5 points. If you really want to get crazy, add in teasing up the Dolphins in the Thanksgiving Night game between the Dolphins and Packers in Green Bay to 9.5 points.
Another divisional matchup this weekend to highlight is the Pittsburgh Steelers (8-3) at the Cincinnati Bengals (4-7). These games are always intense. I do not think many saw the Steelers dropping a game to the Cleveland Browns last week, but no one saw the Bengals being 4-7 to this point in the season either. The Bengals are listed as 3 point home favorites, which ideally should say something about the reality of their record. They are not a bad team, they have just struggled to get in the groove to find ways to win games. All bets, pardon the expression, are off when these two meet Sunday. It will be a battle that will display the winning determination of Bengals QB Joe Burrow and hot hands of Ja’Mar Chase against a stubborn Steelers defense. The Steelers have been a consistent team just like any other year under Head Coach Mike Tomlin. I do expect this to be a game decided by a FG, so my play could go either way at the 3 points the line is currently at. I will be looking for the hook as gametime comes around. If the Steelers get 3.5 points, I will play the Steelers. If the line drops to 2.5 for the Bengals, I may change my view on what direction my money goes.
Perhaps the biggest game this week is the 9-2 Philadelphia Eagles heading down to the 8-4 Baltimore Ravens. The Ravens escaped with a road win against the Chargers in week 12. The game arguably would have been closer than the 30-23 final indicated with the in-game loss of Chargers starting running back JK Dobbins. This week they will face a solid Philadelphia Eagles team that has weapons all over for Jalen Hurts to exercise. The combination of Saquan Barkley and AJ Brown allows for a dual threat offensively that the Ravens may find tough to compensate for. The Ravens are no slouch offensively either. Lamar Jackson and Derick Henry provide ample threats similar to the Eagles. The line has already moved to the Eagles landing as 3 point underdogs to the Ravens in an always hostile environment. Even if the line moves to the Eagles at 2.5 point underdogs, I am inclined to lean with taking the points. My favorite play on this one is adding it into a teaser and teasing up the Eagles to 9 points.
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