The Early Line Week 15
By Ron Signore
It always feels good when you can get back on schedule. This week, the early line is actually the early line; not the “lets get the early line as late as we possibly can” version of itself. Last week turned out to be better than I anticipated, with the parlay coming in last night to cap a 5-1 week. Last weeks lone loss was on the Falcons covering in Minnesota. We have moved to 11-5 in the past 3 weeks. Week 15 has some critical games with conference and divisional implications, and it should be a very fun week around the NFL.
Perhaps the most crucial game with post season implications to it lands on Thursday Night Football when the 49ers (6-7) as 2.5 point favorites host the rival LA Rams (7-6). The NFC West is widely up for grabs with each team within a game of the divisional lead. The history between Sean McVay and Kyle Shannahan goes back many years and paints the picture of another classic chess match to be played between them. Both teams are coming off wins on Sunday, respectively. The Rams won as home underdogs against the Buffalo Bills in a high scoring thriller. The 49ers beat down the Bears as they should have. I may stay away from this game because of the coach history variable, but if I had to lean one way, I would likely go with my heart and lay the points with the 49ers simply for the notion that the Rams had a hard marathon battle against the Bills Sunday just to turn around on a short week and go on the road against San Francisco at a time where they are playing with their backs against the wall.
On Sunday, the Miami Dolphins (6-7) are a 2.5 road dog visiting the 8-5 Houston Texans. Miami narrowly escaped Aaron Rodgers and the Jets in overtime Sunday at home. Truth be told, the Dolphins were likely looking ahead to this game. Not because they do not value the divisional matchups, but rather the Jets had lost so 8 straight games and look bad doing it. Why not focus on the next big game. Houston sits atop the AFC South and has looked consistent in their play led by CJ Stroud at QB. They have adjusted to life without Stefon Diggs at WR, losing him to the season ending IR. Joe Mixon and Nico Collins have rounded out the offensive attack to compliment a solid defense. However, the Dolphins have been surging since the return of QB Tua Tagovailoa from healing from his latest concussion. His QB play has allowed for the offensive unit to be whole and consistent. It allows for Devonne Achane to run and catch balls out of the back field at a dangerous pace. Just when you think you have planned for that, Tua opens up his vision to make you remember you have Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and Jonnu Smith to defend as well. Even though it is a road game in a hostile environment, I will take the Dolphins getting the points.
There are four games Sunday during the afternoon slate that carry a lot of interest. The first is the Buffalo Bills (10-3) visiting the 12-1 Detroit Lions. The early line opened with the Lions as 2.5 point favorites, but that has quickly dwindled, currently sitting at 1.5 point favorites, indicating bettors are taking the points with the Bills. I will do the same since I think the Bills will win outright. I also plan on using this game to tease up the Bills in other plays.
The Bucs (7-6) bring their Baker Mayfield led offense and stingy defense to LA where they play the Chargers as 3 point underdogs. My first lean is on the total points for the game, looking at staying under 46.5 points. I may consider teasing the Bucs up to 9 as we get closer to gameday.
Then you have the in-state rivalry between the 10-3 Pittsburgh Steelers visiting the 4.5 home favorite Philadelphia Eagles (11-2). Steeler Head Coach, Mike Tomlin, guaranteed himself to again not have a losing season during his tenure as coach. The Steelers have brought solid defensive play, and decent offensive play. Russell Wilson has had flashes of brilliance, and other glimpses of complete lackluster. The weapons he has available against the Eagles will determine my final wager. Right now, I see the best play being the Steelers getting teased up to 10.5 points. With both teams coming off of what should have been look ahead games, the Steelers handled the division rival Browns on Sunday without issue. The Eagles, on the other hand, limped off the field Sunday in a tight win against the pitiful Carolina Panthers. I expect the Eagles to come out and defend their home turf and state bragging rights and cover the 4.5 points.
Finally, Sunday night offers a conference battle between the 9-4 road favorite Green Bay Packers to the NFC West Divisional leader, the 8-5 Seattle Seahawks. The Seahawks play in one of the toughest environments to opposing teams. They are coming off a huge divisional road win against Arizona and have played outstanding on both sides of the ball as of late. Geno Smith has used his weapons effectively, and Zach Charbonnet has been consistently solid out of the backfield all season, despite not being number one on the depth chart, and having to supplement an injured Kenneth Walker III. The Packers need this game. They need to bounce back from their week 14 road loss to the Lions, that held receiver Jayden Reed to 0 catches. Jordan Love will need to have a wide field of vision to supplement the solid play of RB Josh Jacobs. Pending the weather, I have my sights on the total. If its going to be cold and blustery, I would lean under the 46.5 total. However, my assumption now is that all conditions are equal, and I see this being another footrace like last week. My key instinct is to be over that 46.5. I think you are safe teasing down the total in this either way. But the way both these teams are playing, the catalyst for me is that advantage of the 12th man in Seattle, I would lean with the 3 point home dog straight up, or tease them up to 10.
Good luck everyone!
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