The Early Line Week 14 – Slightly Later Edition
By Ron Signore
Unfortunately, the week of a travelling sales professional delayed the reality of the intended earliness of providing some week 14 insights. I hope NFL week 13 was as good for your pockets as it was for the Thanksgiving time you spent with your loved ones. Counting teasers with final lines, we only lost the Lions covering the 9.5 points against the Bears on Thanksgiving Day. The final line helped the teaser come out with a single side win with the 3-point line ending in voiding that line. Currently riding at 6-4 the past two weeks, but this week may prove to be one of the hardest I have tried to handicap in recent memory.
The weeks slate kicks off with a Thursday night primetime divisional clash between the Green Bay Packers (9-3) and the 3.5 point home favorite Detroit Lions (11-1). Similar to last weeks tilt against the Chicago Bears, the Lions for all intents and purposes are operating at a strong level. However, while they won 23-20 on a clock management blunder that cost Bears coach Matt Eberflus his job, finally, they played pretty good football. That was on a short week for Detroit. Like the Packers who also played on Thursday last week, they will have a normal weeks rest in this key matchup.
The Packers have been consistent, but not as dominant as Detroit. This is a tough one when historical trends do not always help since Detroit has more typically than not been irrelevant in the past few decades. However, head coach Dan Campbell has resurrected an image Detroit has very rarely had the ability to enjoy. Both teams can score. Both teams can prevent others from scoring. By every logic, this game should come down to a field goal. I am leaning towards the Packers getting 3.5, but I really do not like this line. It isn’t because I think it is inaccurate from a handicap perspective, because my number is Detroit by 4. However, this is an indoor game with two teams looking to benefit from a victory in this game one way or another when it comes to the playoffs.
The Packers have more to play for considering they are in 3rd place in arguably the best division in football. One thing I never considered in last weeks analysis of the Bears/Lions game that in hindsight would have been better for me to consider would have been that the Lions were technically in a look ahead position, which means they’ve had more concern for this game than they did last week, and rightfully so. The Bears should have been rolled over in all reality. I am going to go against the grain here and actually look at going over the total (o/u 51.5). The public always wants to see and assume a high scoring game, this is one where I think fate will align.
The next play I am interested in is teasing the 9-3 Pittsburgh Steelers down to laying a half point against the 3-9 Cleveland Browns. This is a home game for the Steel Curtain in a revenge game from week 12 where the Browns shocked the world in beating the Steelers in Cleveland. Russell Wilson is coming off his best game as a Steeler statistically, and they now know how to play Jameis Winston, which will likely add to his career interception total. No matter how I slice this in handicapping, I see the Steelers getting their 10th win.
The second play to that teaser is teasing up the 6 point road dog Atlanta Falcons (6-6) in the return of QB Kirk Cousins to Minnesota (10-2). Every game in the NFC North is important. I consistently struggle with the Atlanta Falcons. One week they play like they can contend against anyone. Other weeks, they…well, they mess the bed. However, that one variable edge of Kirk Cousins returning to Minnesota gives a motivation factor that I am not willing to ignore in Atlanta’s ability to score. Give me the 12 points teasing up the Falcons in this one.
Other games I would consider in a teaser play would be teasing the Dolphins down to half a point, securing the victory against a rather stingy Jets defense and impotent offense.
Teasing up (8.5 points) the Seahawks over the 2.5 point home favorite Arizona Cardinals. These games have tended to be lower scoring and tight. While I also see the 6-6 Cardinals playing some scrappy football, the 7-5 Seahawks are in the hunt to hold onto the divisional lead, so the motivation will be there to align with the concept of this being a close game.
The last play I am feeling good with this week involves a slight risk in two teams that are continuing to fight to find themselves. I am going to parlay the underperforming San Francisco 49ers as they host the Chicago Bears as a -200 favorite, and arguably the best 4-8 team in the NFL in the high-octane offense Cincinnati Bengals as a -240 road favorite in Dallas. Depending on where you place your bets, your odds should start at +100 money for a win to double your bet.
Good luck this week!
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